KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Qipco British Champion Series) takes place at Ascot on the 25th July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race sees the Epsom Derby winner, Golden Horn, attempt to become first horse to do the Derby-King George double since Galileo in 2001.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-3-13
4yo: 8-6-39
5yo: 0-6-17
6yo+: 0-1-10
8 of 10 winners were aged 4
horses aged 5+ have not won this in past 10 years despite having accounted for 34.1% of total runners.
Since 2000 there have been four 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, one won the King Edward at Ascot on previous start and the other won the Epsom Oaks last time.

Gender


Fillies & mares (2-0-5) have won 2 of the last 3, from just 5 runners in past 10 years.
Danedream & Taghrooda won the 2012 & 2014 renewals. Prior to Danedream’s win in 2012, the previous female to win this was Charter in 1983. The last 3yo fillies to win this had both won that season’s Epsom Derby.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception placed on both starts that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3 lengths or more
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races


That season


Epsom Oaks winner (Qualify): 81 (1-0-2)
Ormonde Stakes winner (Clever Cookie): 813 (1-0-3)
Eclipse winner (Golden Horn): 23 (0-2-2)
Dante Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 2 (0-1-1)
Epsom Derby winner (Golden Horn): 5 (0-0-1)
Dubai Sheema Classic winner (Dolniya): 03F (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last time, finishing 241
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
Previous season


Highest placed finisher from previous year's Arc: 3133321 (2-4-7)
Gran Premio Del Jockey Club Italiano winner (Dylan Mouth): 641 (1-0-3)
Great Voltigeur winner (Postponed): 27F52 (0-2-5)
Previous season's King Edward VII Stakes winner (Eagle Top): 2 (0-1-1)
Hong Kong Vase winner (Flintshire): 0466 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Gordon Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 2 German-trained winners ran in previous Grosser Preis Von Baden, finishing 14
2 of 2 German-trained winners ran in Grosser Preis Der Badischen Unterhermer, finishing 11

Trainers


British-trained runners: 4-12-47
Irish-trained runners: 3-3-19
German-trained runners: 2-0-3
French-trained runners: 1-1-8
Japanese-trained runners: 0-0-2
Michael Stoute (2-6-15) has trained the winner 3 times in past 13 years (2002, 2009 & 2010).


Aidan O’Brien (2-2-14) trained Galileo to win this in 2001, he trained 2 of the last 10 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.
John Gosden (2-1-8) trained Nathaniel (a 3yo who had won the King Edward VII Stakes on previous start) to win this in 2011. He also trained Taghrooda to win this last year.
Andre Fabre (1-0-1) won this with Hurricane Run in 2006 while Andreas Wohler won this with Novellist in 2013.

Price


All 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 1.88 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 (or a 3yo that won the Irish/English Derby or Oaks)
- Had 2 to 4 runs this season (and won a race in 2015)
- Finished first 3 last time, posting an RPR of 119+
- Run in last 50 days
- Won a group 1 (or won Royal Ascot group 2 last time)
- Won over 1M 4F (or previous group 1 winner having first try at this trip)
- Finished in first 4 in 2015 Tattersalls Gold Cup
- Ran in Prince Of Wales, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud or Hardwicke last time
- Finished in first 2 in Arc, Gordon Stakes and/or Irish Champion Stakes in 2014
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Michael Stoute or in Germany
- Priced shorter than 10/1.