my thoughts and bets for Goodwood Day 1 - 28/7/2015

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2.00 Goodwood – Sky Bet First Race Special Stakes (Handicap)

The meeting gets underway with a 1m2f handicap and the first place to start is with last year’s winner Sennockian Star who was quickly away twelve months ago and stayed on well in the closing stages to win by half a length. He won a Listed contest at Ayr later in the season but his form tailed off after that and he dropped down to as low as 93. However, victory at Chester in June was followed by a big run when second to Mahsoob at Royal Ascot and he would have finished closer to the winner at York last time had he not been hampered at a crucial stage. He is clearly thriving at present and with another good draw in stall 4 and racing off a 1lb lower mark than last year, he looks likely to be in the shake-up once again here.

Luca Cumani’s Mount Logan finished third in the John Smith’s Cup at York last time, once again doing the best of his work at the line. It is little surprise given that he has won over 1m4f in the past and is clearly a strong stayer at this distance. He has only gone up 2lb for that latest effort and in his current vein of form, he looks likely to give another good account here. Favourites don’t have a great record in the race, which is where he finds himself at the minute but he certainly deserves a place on the shortlist.

In terms of a pace angle in the race, William Knight’s Noble Gift looks likely to take the field along in the early part of the race and has been given a good draw in stall 2. He was only beaten a head by Mr Gallivanter at Kempton last time over 1m4f and the drop back in trip should suit him. Callum Shepherd seems to get on really well with him and keeps the ride and if he can reproduce the form that saw him beat Fire Fighting at Kempton in March, he could be difficult to peg back from the front and although I wouldn’t always advocate backing two of my selections, I think this also has a good each-way chance at around 20/1.

MASTER THE WORLD finally got his head in front following a number of consistent placed efforts when stepped up to 1m2f last time. He was given an excellent ride by Richard Hughes that day and he partners the four-year-old once again here. He always seems to run his race for connections and with four-year-olds having won eight of the last ten renewals of the race, they look to be the group to focus on. He has been raised 5lb on the back of his latest victory but he is unexposed at this trip and there could be more to come. He is currently available at around the 11/1 mark and looks to have solid each-way claims in an open contest.



2.35 Goodwood – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2)

The Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting looks likely to be a pretty good guide to this contest with the first two home re-opposing here. Richard Fahey’s Birchwood came out on top at Newmarket to take his overall record to three wins from four races. He drifted left in the closing stages that day but was always doing enough to hold off Aidan O’Brien’s Air Vice Marshal. He does have a 3lb penalty for that success which could make lift slightly more difficult for him, but on the formbook at least, he sets a pretty high standard.

With the defection of Air Vice Marshal due to the ground, there are a couple of the lesser exposed runners who catch the eye. Hugo Palmer’s Galileo Gold ran into a smart Richard Hannon performer on his debut but improved to win next time at Salisbury. He stepped into novice company last time at Haydock and turned in arguably his best performance to date to beat John Gosden’s Hayadh by one and a quarter lengths. He has since been bought by Al Shaqab Racing and given his continued improvement, he looks worthy of a second look.

However, it might be worth taking a slightly bigger price about STRONG CHALLENGE who won his maiden here at the second attempt back in June. He chased home Mark Johnston’s smart performer Riflescope on debut but took a big step forward to make all on his second outing. He quickened up smartly that day on the run to the line giving the impression that he is a smart performer. The form has also worked out well with the runner-up Gutaifan having won three times since including the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin on Sunday. It is quite possible that having won here, he has been saved for this assignment and from stall 1 he should be able to assume front-running duties once again. We have already seen him use his turn of foot to good effect and he looks a lively contender in an open renewal of the race.



3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2)

Given the weight allowance that they receive it is slightly surprising that three-year-olds do not have a better record in this race, although having said that they have produced half of the last ten winners of the race. They look to have a strong hand this year, led by Dutch Connection who was denied a Group 1 success by Territories last time in France. That was over a mile but as the formbook tells us, his optimum trip is seven furlongs and the return to this distance makes him a big player here. He was a ready winner of the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and is clearly thriving at present for his in-form yard. He won his maiden at this meeting last year so the track shouldn’t hold any concerns for him, my slight doubt would be if there was a lot of rain as his best form to date has come on fast ground. However, he looks to be getting better with racing and looks the pick of the Classic generation here.

His nearest market rival is Richard Hannon’s Toormore who has been dining at the top table on his last three starts and despite being placed on two occasions, he has failed to get his head in front. He was well-fancied for this race last year but couldn’t peg back Es Que Love in the closing stages and went down by a quarter of a length at the line. I’m not sure the drop back to seven furlongs is ideal for him but he is a Group 1 performer and any cut in the ground would not cause him too many issues. He is in better form than this time last year and warrants plenty of respect dropping in class.

However, with the prospect of potentially soft ground on Tuesday, it may be worth looking away from the front two in the market and I think that ASCRIPTION is over-priced at 16/1. He absolutely annihilated his rivals in handicap company at this meeting two years ago before going on to land another big prize at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting. He was off the track for the best part of eighteen months before returning at York in May and turned in a career best to finish second in Group 3 company last time. Any cut in the ground would suit him well and he looks to be coming to the boil at the right time for this assignment. There were signs he was back to his best under a sympathetic ride last time and I think he can cause an upset on slightly slower ground.



3.45 Goodwood – Summer Stakes (Handicap)

Roger Varian’s Battersea will continue to prove popular with the punters whilst still racing in handicap company having looked a bit better than that level in two taking performances at Ascot last season. He was on the face of it, a little disappointing at Haydock on his return to action but he was ridden patiently that day and nothing towards the rear really got involved in at the business end of the race. The ground was also probably slow enough for him there which would be a concern if it were on the soft side here but he is a smart performer and if he finds improvement from his seasonal reappearance, he shouldn’t be too far away.

The winner at Haydock was Mark Johnston’s Notarised who made it three wins from his last five starts with a game display to hold off his stablemate Watersmeet. He made all that day and it came just a week after running the Northumberland Plate in which he encountered trouble in running. His trainer has a fine record at this meeting so he warrants close inspection but he has been handed a stall 14 draw, which in truth could be very difficult to overcome. His jockey will need to use up plenty of petrol to get over from that draw but a repeat of his latest effort would put him right in contention.

John Quinn’s Great Hall continues to knock on the door and turned in a fine effort to finish third in the John Smith’s Silver Cup at York last time. 1m6f seems to be his optimum trip and a slight pull in the weights suggests that he can get a little closer to his conqueror Astronereus. He has been drawn in stall 8 which gives his jockey options from the start and it is also interesting that the cheekpieces he wore last time have been discarded. He turned in a fine effort at Haydock last year without any headgear and I think he can run well here before heading to York for another crack at the Ebor.

In an open race, I think FORGOTTEN VOICE could be the one to beat having gone down by just three-quarters of a length in Listed company last time. That was over an extended two miles and I’m not convinced that he is as effective over that trip despite running well. He is ten now but he won a Group 3 over 1m4f here two years ago and a handicap at Royal Ascot off this mark prior to that. He showed himself to be in good order last time and dropped into a handicap from stall 2 he looks the one to side with.



4.20 Goodwood – Weatherbys Private Banking Stakes (Handicap)

The progressive Double Up continued his progression to win in spite of racing in the wrong group at Ascot last time. He was drawn away from those who fought out the finish with him but having drawn clear of those racing with him, he held off all challengers to win with half a length to spare at the line. That was the four-year-old’s third win of the season and he has gone up another 5lb in the handicap as a result. He carries top weight here but he is clearly a sprinter on the up and I would not be surprised to see him show up well again here.

Derek Shaw’s Top Boy ties in closely with Double Up, with Roger Varian’s four-year-old getting the better of his rival at Nottingham at the end of May. Since then, the five-year-old has been in good form, going close at Newmarket on his last two starts. He races off the same mark today and in terms of Double Up, he gets a 15lb pull in the weights with that rival and on that basis, a reproduction of that run would see him go close in this contest.

Of the more exposed runners in the field, Charlie Hills’ Lucky Beggar has been running in better contests of late and makes some appeal on this drop in grade. It is a while since he got his head in front in April 2014 but that came off a mark of 102 and he is starting to look dangerously handicapped as his mark begins to fall. William Buick rode him that day and renews the partnership here but he will need to improve on his recent outings to have a say here. He is falling down the handicap and could have a big chance if back to his best.

Tim Easterby’s CONFESSIONAL has been a fine servant to the yard and despite only finishing ninth at Hamilton a couple of weeks ago, a return to form is not entirely out of the question. On his last five starts over five furlongs wearing eye-shields he has been placed three times and he is now 6lb below his last winning mark. He is pretty versatile in terms of ground so any rain would not hold too many concerns and the booking of Andrea Atzeni catches the eye. I think he could be over-priced and it would no surprise to see him attract market support given his shrewd connections.



4.55 Goodwood – Kish Armstrong Memorial EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes

This race has tended to go the way of horses with experience in recent years with last year’s winner Misleading the only debutant to get his head in front here. That gave his trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam a second victory in this race in the last decade and he saddles Sterling Lines for the same owners this time around. A relatively cheap purchase at £22,000, he is reported to have worked well to date and having had success here in the past, it is interesting that he has chosen to send him here. He will need to be a potentially smart performer to overcome a lack of experience on debut but his stablemate showed it could be done last year and he could offer some each-way value in the race against more exposed rivals.

The Hannon team don’t have as strong a record as you would expect in this race but nevertheless their runners always need respecting here at Goodwood. They have no less than five runners in this race with INLAND SEA the pick of the bunch. The colt is a full-brother to No Nay Never who won the Norfolk Stakes and the Prix Morny in 2013 and there was plenty to like about his debut at Windsor. He was denied a clear run at a crucial stage but kept on nicely inside the final furlong to finish fourth. The Hannon two-year-olds have tended to come on for the run this season so it would be no surprise to see this colt step forward from his initial run and he looks the one they all have to beat.

Of the remainder of the field, Goodwood Zodiac looks to be on plenty of interest having just failed to get up at Epsom a few weeks ago. William Knight’s colt is owned by the Goodwood Racehorse Owners Group who will no doubt be keen to see him run well at their home track. The form of his latest run has been franked with the fifth having come out and won since and it would be no surprise to see him show up well for his connections.

Sir Roger Moore could also play a part having run in the Coventry Stakes on just his second start last time. He was still very green that day and this drop into maiden company should be more suitable for him. There was plenty to like about his debut effort at York’s Dante meeting in May and in slightly shallower waters, he looks likely to give a good account of himself.



5.30 Goodwood – Turf Club Stakes (Handicap)

The final race on day one is a handicap over a mile and this race looks likely to centre around the less-exposed members in the line-up. Richard Fahey’s Third Time Lucky won his first three starts this term before running into a progressive rival in the shape of Muffri’ha at Lingfield last time. He was well fancied for that assignment but just bumped into a good one and his mark has been left unchanged on the back of it. He won on soft ground in April which means that the ground shouldn’t be any problem and having finished in the first two on his last six visits to the racecourse, it would be foolish to rule him out.

As you know, we have had our eye on Seamus Durack’s Tournament for a little while and it was disappointing to see him run so badly at Haydock last time. Prior to that, he should have finished a lot closer than three lengths fifth at Ayr and he continues to look well-treated given his lightly-raced profile. The draw has not been too kind to him in stall 10 but Jamie Spencer who won on him at the end of last year gets the leg and he once again looks one to keep on side.

However, Hugo Palmer has saddled the last two winners of this race and STRONG STEPS looks well placed to give him yet another victory. The three-year-old is progressing well and was unlucky to be collared close home at Kempton in June. I fancied him to run well a couple of weekends ago when he was a non-runner and I think connections feel he is a bit better than his current mark of 89. The ground is something of an unknown although he didn’t seem to like quick ground at Sandown in May and with James Doyle booked to ride, he looks to have a big chance.