my thoughts and bets for Goodwood Day 2 - 29/7/2015
2.00 Goodwood – Victoria Racing Club Goodwood Stakes (Handicap)
Day two gets underway an extreme stamina test and with the ground on the soft side it could turn into a real war of attrition. One horse who has already shown form over extreme distances this season in Gabrial’s Star who was fifth in the Chester Cup behind Trip To Paris earlier this season. He could not reproduce that run subsequently over two miles and over 1m4f last time out. He does handle cut in the ground with three of his four victories coming on soft ground and if this step up in trip brings about further improvement as I think it might, he looks a major player from stall 1.
David Evans’ Wordiness has already won four times during this calendar year and judged on the way he won at Newbury a couple of weeks ago, there could be more to come from this seven-year-old. He stayed on strongly last time over two miles to win by three lengths which also suggests that extra distance should hold no issues for him. He went up 5lb for that success but the talented Tom Marquand has been snapped up to negate that rise and he looks one to respect. There is a doubt about the ground as all of his successes have come on synthetic surfaces or turf described as good to firm or firm but he is in the form of his life at present and deserves a place on the shortlist.
Sir Mark Prescott’s runners always need a second look particularly over these sorts of trips and William Of Orange looks to have plenty going in his favour here. He was doing all of his best work at the finish over two miles last time and whilst it is hard to know how whether the extra five furlongs will be too far, I would suggest that the extra emphasis on stamina should play into his hands. He has run well with cut in the ground in the past but more of a concern is the weight he carries as he has top weight, 9st 10lb to carry. His form suggests he won’t be too far away but whether there are a couple of better handicapped horses in the race, only time will tell.
In an open race, I think it might be best to side with Sylvester Kirk’s SEE AND BE SEEN who showed he was as good as ever when winning at Pontefract in June. That was over 2m2f and he absolutely blitzed his rivals that day as he was eased in the closing stages but still won by four and a half lengths at the line. The handicapper only put him up 5lb on the back of that effort and with Gary Mahon’s 5lb claim, he is essentially racing off the same mark here. He won the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last September which suggests he is up to this sort of level and on the back of a big run last time, I fancy him to go well again here.
2.35 Goodwood – Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes (Group 3)
The Gordon Stakes has thrown up some smart performers in recent years and there are a couple of horses in here who will be looking to stake their claims for victory in the St Leger with a positive display here.
The first is David Brown’s Medrano who has always been highly thought of by his trainer and having been placed on his first four starts this season, he took a big step forward when winning the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton a couple of weeks ago. He really seemed to enjoy the soft ground that day and forged clear in the closing stages to beat another of his rivals Prince Gagarin who re-opposes today by six lengths. He has good form behind the likes of Storm The Stars and Hans Holbein earlier in the season and there doesn’t look to be many chinks in his armour. He was well-backed last time and I fancy him to go well again here, as he sets a pretty high standard.
Aidan O’Brien’s Highland Reel currently occupies the spot at the head of the market despite a pretty ordinary display in the Irish Derby last time. He got very warm that day and having been held up towards the rear of the field, those towards the back made very little headway in the closing stages. I think we can put a line through that particular effort and if you consider that he was second in the French Derby prior to that, it is easy to see why he is so popular. He won the Vintage Stakes here as a two-year-old so the nature of the track shouldn’t pose too many problems for him and given a more orthodox ride than he got last time, I don’t think he will be too far away at the business end of the race.
However, at a bigger price I like the chances of Charlie Appleby’s SPACE AGE who looked a Group horse in the making when winning the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was keen early on and travelled wide but he had plenty in the tank in the closing stages and he stayed on well to win by one and a quarter lengths. He was giving the winner nearly a stone when runner-up at Ascot last time and he deserves a crack at this sort of race. It will be interesting to see whether William Buick tries to get over to lead from his draw in stall 9 but if he can dictate, he could be hard to pass. He is around the 10/1 mark and in a race where most of his rivals are fairly exposed, there could be more to come from this colt and he could represent a bit of each-way value in the race.
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1)
The feature race on day two does miss the presence of dual Guineas and St James Palace winner Gleneagles and in the bookies’ opinion, it looks as though SOLOW is the one to beat. In truth it is hard to argue with that as he continued his fine form when winning a third Group 1 of 2015 in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was strong at the finish that day to hold off Esoterique by a length and the five-year-old has been spoken about in glowing terms by his trainer of late. The slight concern would be that he hasn’t been around Goodwood before but he is well-balanced and it would be a surprise were he not to act on it. In terms of who wins the race, he looks the most likely candidate but I would not be mad keen on taking 4/6 about him.
In terms of dangers in the race, Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Arod deserves a second look having won his last two starts including in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last time. The four-year-old seems to have really thrived since being dropped back to a mile earlier this season and having been narrowly beaten in the Lockinge, he has stepped forward since. He has led on his last two starts which could prove difficult from stall 8 although there doesn’t look to be lots of pace in the race. I would imagine he will attempt to dictate proceedings from the front and it will be a case of whether the others are good enough to get past him.
If you are looking for an each-way bet in the race, you could do worse than siding with Belardo who turned in his best display so far this season when a staying on fourth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time. This colt does enjoy cut in the ground so reports of the ground quickening up would be something of a concern but I don’t see it getting onto the fast side of good too quickly and on genuine good ground, he should be ok. He gets the three-year-old allowance and having threatened a return to form last time, he looks the each-way bet in the race at around 8/1.
3.45 Goodwood – Fairmont Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)
Royal Ascot form looks likely to come to the forefront in this race with Windsor Castle winner Washington DC lining up for Aidan O’Brien. The Zoffany colt has yet to finish outside of the first two in four career starts and showed plenty of speed at Ascot as well as a good attitude to hold off the challenge of Kevin Ryan’s Areen. The ground he will encounter here will not be as fast as it was at Ascot but he should nevertheless show up well. Runners from this yard always need respecting and I expect he will give the market leader most to think about.
However, he may have his hands full with KING OF ROOKS who was well-fancied to win the Norfolk but he and stablemate Log Out Island set a frenetic gallop early on and set the race up for Waterloo Bridge to come through and land the spoils. Prior to that he had beaten Coventry Stakes winner Buratino by five lengths at Sandown and I have to say that they used up too much petrol early on here. They should have learned their lesson here and he looks well-placed to make amends in this race. He looked probably the best two-year-old in training heading into Royal Ascot and I think he could go some way to restoring that reputation with a fine performance tomorrow.
At a big price, it might be worth taking a chance on Charlie Hills’ Case Key whose run at Sandown behind King Of Rooks was too bad to be true. He tracked the leaders early on but dropped away tamely in the closing stages and it is possible that the ground was quick enough for him that day. He was an impressive winner at Leicester on debut after which Royal Ascot was mooted as a target but he missed that following his run at Sandown. He has been given a little bit of time and with James Doyle back aboard, he could be worth a small each-way bet at around 25/1.
4.20 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
Charlie Hills throws three darts at this race and although it is difficult to know which is the ‘first string’ I think the strongest of the three could be Komedy for all she has been a little disappointing on her first two starts. She was green on debut at Salisbury before being below-par at Thirsk a couple of weeks later. She steps up to six furlongs here which could bring about further improvement and I think there is more to come from this 70,000 euros purchase. She has been given a bit of time to develop and I think she can leave her first two runs behind and go close under Jim Crowley.
I mentioned yesterday how Richard Hannon’s juveniles have tended to come on for the run this season so Winter Rose should be expected to improve on her debut outing at Newmarket. She seemed to know her job that day, leading early on and she just got headed by two fillies in the closing stages, with the winner being pitched into Group 3 company last weekend. The maiden she ran in at the July meeting tends to work out well and given her connections, she shouldn’t be too far away here.
Of the debutants, Saeed Bin Suroor’s Promising Run looks an interesting runner and her full-sister got off the mark at the first attempt during her racing career. She is closely-related to Arabian Comet and Aqalim which suggests that she may want a bit further in time but her trainer has already made a good start with his juveniles. She will have to be pretty straight to win here first time, but if she knows her job, I don’t see her being too far away at the finish.
However, my preference is for Marcus Tregoning’s ALAMODE who is owned and bred by Kirsten Rausing. The filly’s family also suggests that she will get better as she steps up in trip but there was plenty to like about her debut at Newbury at the beginning of the month, where she was green early on. It took a while for the penny to drop with her but she kept on well under hands and heels in the final couple of furlongs to finish fourth behind a runaway winner from the Henry Candy stable. She should benefit from that run and with normal improvement expected, she is my idea of the most likely winner.
4.55 Goodwood – EBF Stallions Veuve Cliquot Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)
This fillies handicap looks a tricky puzzle to solve with challengers of varying degrees of experience taking each other on.
Having won on her last three visits to the racecourse, we need to take a close look at Edge Of Heaven who looked well ahead of the handicapper when winning by two and three-quarter lengths at Windsor a couple of weeks ago. The handicapper has attempted to stop the sequence by putting her up another 7lb and she now races off 23lb higher than her mark at the beginning of the season. Her last race had only three runners so this will be much more competitive but she is clearly thriving at present and can’t be ruled out. She is drawn wide enough in stall 10 which she will need to overcome, but she deserves a place on the shortlist on the back of her recent exploits.
Roger Varian’s three-year-old Tazffin chased home subsequent Irish Oaks winner Covert Love in a York handicap earlier this year but struggled with the 13lb rise in the weights for that effort next time. That run came at Royal Ascot where she was dropped back to a mile and wore blinkers for the first time and she didn’t run too badly, although I am not surprised to see the blinkers removed for this assignment. She could be open to further improvement although she comes out of stall 14 so will need a bit of luck in running. Roger Varian’s team finally seem to be picking up this season and she looks a likely candidate for the frame.
The final three-year-old worthy of a look is Charlie Appleby’s FOREST MAIDEN who caused something of a surprise when making all at Newbury a couple of weeks ago. That was her second success of the season and she showed a good attitude to hold off several challengers to land the spoils. She has only gone up 2lb on the back of that effort but given how good the race was, I think that she could have been raised a lot higher. The Godolphin team have a better record than you would expect in handicap and if this filly can get over from stall nine and assume her usual front-running position, she could be tough to beat.
Of the older fillies, Mick Channon’s Nancy From Nairobi could provide some each-way value in the race having been highly-tried so far this term. She was fourth at Epsom at the beginning of June which was probably the last time she ran really well but there were signs of encouragement when she was fitted with a visor for the first time at Chester. It is something of a concern that she has raced so much and this will be her fourth run in July. However, she has been cut some slack by the handicapper and although she doesn’t win that often, she should be thereabouts at the business end of the race under Richard Hughes.
5.25 Goodwood – Natwest Stakes (Handicap)
The draw often plays a big role here at Goodwood and I’m sure that Brian Meehan will have been pleased to see Carnival King drawn in stall 1 here. The colt caused something of a surprise when just about making all to win a Newmarket maiden at the Craven meeting earlier this year and he showed a good attitude to hold off his challengers and win with a length to spare. He was disappointing next time on his handicap debut at Ascot but the form of that race is working out really well and that run might not be as bad as it first appeared. He should be able to get out quickly and dictate proceedings from the front and he is ridden by Joe Fanning, who is a master at setting the pace. It may be that his current mark is high enough but this is only his fifth start and I think he can show up well and hit the frame.
One of the stories of the season so far has been the success of Simon Crisford in his first season with a license and he is currently operating at a 34% strike-rate with his horses. He saddles Mutawathea here who has already won twice this season and perhaps just found the ground a bit on the quick side when third at Ascot last time. He races off a career high mark of 94 here but has only turned in one poor effort to date this season and he is drawn well enough to get the ideal position here. A lot of his rivals have struggled for form of late so this four-year-old should show up well once again here.
Charlie Fellowes’ Accession also looks to have claims having run well behind Mr Win in a competitive handicap at Newmarket last time. He showed a good attitude once headed in the final furlong and was beaten less than half a length at the line. The assessor hasn’t been too harsh in putting him up 2lb and he is by no means weighted out of this race. His main obstacle looks likely to be the draw in stall 13, but if he can overcome that disadvantage, he shouldn’t be too far away.
In a wide open contest, I think the one to side with is Andrew Balding’s MIME DANCE who got his head in front for the second time this year at Chepstow last time. Once again, he left it late to get his head in front and only got there right on the line and as a result he has only been raised 1lb. He is drawn well in stall 2, although he tends to be held up in his races which means that he could be something of a hostage to fortune. However, he has been running in small field and a stronger pace to run at should be perfect for him. As I say, he will need a bit of luck in running but his jockey Edward Greatrex has already shown himself to good effect this season and I think this could give him another notable winner to add to his CV.
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