my thoughts and bets Goodwood day 4 - 31/7/2015

[ganjaman2]

2.00 Goodwood – Betfred Glorious Stakes (Group 3)




David Simcock’s THE CORSICAN was fancied in some quarters to run a big race in the King George last weekend on the back of a career best run in the Prince Of Wales’ at the Royal meeting. So dropping into Group 3 company without any penalty suggests that he could have a bit too much class for his rivals here. A progressive handicapper last season, he returned to action with a Listed success at Goodwood over ten furlongs, beating Educate by two lengths at the line. He was a staying on fourth at Royal Ascot and having won his maiden over 1m4f last year, the trip should be no problem for him. He loves the track having won here twice already and with very few chinks in his armour, he looks difficult to oppose here.


If there is an unknown quantity in the race, it looks to be Luca Cumani’s Connecticut who ran out a ready winner on his seasonal reappearance at Pontefract last month. Tackling Listed class for the first time, he powered clear in the closing stages to beat Mick Channon’s Nancy From Nairobi by sixteen lengths despite being eased down. There were only four runners that day so it is difficult to weigh the form up against that of The Corsican’s but at least visually it was very impressive. He is clearly a progressive colt who has earned a crack at this sort of race and should the favourite not deliver, he could be the one to take advantage.


Of the rest, Hillstar and Dubday both set pretty good standards with slight preference for the former, who turned in his best effort of the season at Newmarket last time. Having travelled overseas last season, he was unwell on his return and it has taken a long time for him to come to hand. He is probably a bit below Group 1 class but on his day he has plenty of ability and he could just be coming to the boil at the right time. Oliver Peslier gets the leg up and I would not be surprised to see him leave his first two runs of the season well behind.





2.35 Goodwood – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)




Charlie Appleby’s Latharnach heads the betting for this contest having found only Gleneagles too good in the St James’ Palace Stakes last time. He was ridden for a place on that occasion but picked up well in the closing stages and clearly has plenty of gears. He was a little unlucky not to beat Tupi at Newmarket on his return to action where his rival had race fitness on his side and he is clearly heading the right way. He drops in class here and given the turn of foot he has shown in his previous starts, he looks well-equipped to handle the rigours of Goodwood. Having said that, this looks a bit stronger than a ‘normal’ Group 3 and with only two winning favourites in the last ten years, he could be worth taking on.


At bigger prices, Al Shaqab Racing look to have two strong contenders with Frankie Dettori seemingly preferring Moheet. A seven lengths winner on debut last season, he was third in the Craven Stakes before running down the field in the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby. He shaped as though he didn’t stay in the Derby last time so I am not surprised to see him drop back to a mile here. In the Craven Stakes, he was caught out by racing towards the rear as well as his inexperience but he should be a lot sharper for his last two outings. He needs to bounce back and the drop in class should give him an opportunity to do so and with the Hannon team have saddled three recent winners of the race, he looks likely to show up well.


However, despite Frankie’s choice I slightly prefer the claims of HATHAL who having gone left at the start, made good late headway in the Jersey Stakes to be beaten only five lengths at the line. He found only Sir Michael Stoute’s Consort too good in a maiden at Newmarket last term and his trainer thinks an awful lot of this colt. He remains open to plenty of improvement and the Ascot experience should have brought him on. He looks to be heading the right way and I think he is overpriced at 16/1 and he has strong each-way claims in the race.



3.10 Goodwood – Betfred Mile (HANDICAP)




The Betfred Mile is usually quite a rough race but even so it is one of those where the trends hold strong.


The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you were drawn high you couldn’t win as backed up by the fact that 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower. Laa Rayb and Wentworth both overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 and 2013 respectively but on the whole it has always paid to follow the low numbers.
Another pretty reliable trend is regarding the winners age as 3yos and 4yos have won eight of the last 10 renewals. There was always the odd five and six-year-old thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. There are no three-year-olds in this year’s line-up so this group is represented by a sextet of four-year-old runners.


Recent form has played a big part in deciding the winner of recent renewals and it is no surprise to learn that 8 of the last 10 winners came into the race having finished in the first five places last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn’t the race for them. Out of the top five in the betting Chil The Kite and Ayaar both arrive here on the back of disappointing efforts last time.




There are a couple of other things to consider. 7 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 95 and 106 implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This year, a horse rated lower than 95 would not have got into the race but there are two at the top who miss out, GM Hopkins and Chil The Kite who are both rated 109.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and it is important to note that seven of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting. Laa Rayb, Boom And Bust and Red Avenger aside, in recent times this has been a race for those towards the head of the market, so it is not a race in which taking a chance on one at a big price has been fruitful.

Shortlist


MUNAASER – 5/5


Basem – 4/5


You’re Fired – 4/5


Donncha – 4/5

Conclusion


With all things considered, Sir Michael Stoute’s MUNAASER tops the shortlist as he has a faultless profile in terms of trends. He had looked out of sorts on his first two starts this year but bounced right back to form when second at Sandown a few weeks ago and he looks to be peaking at the right time. He tends to be held up in his races which may make him something of a hostage to fortune but he is drawn well on the inside and he looks likely to turn in a big performance here.


Saeed Bin Suroor’s Basem finished just in front of Munaaser at Sandown and has looked a progressive four-year-old on both those starts. He doesn’t win by far which means that the handicapper hasn’t been overly harsh on him and given his lightly-raced profile, you would have to think there is still more to come from him. The one trend he misses is the draw as he has been allocated stall 11 but if he can overcome that obstacle, he looks to have strong claims in the race.


The two remaining members of the shortlist have both snuck in at the bottom of the weights, the first of which is Karl Burke’s You’re Fired. He has also been allocated a wide stall but showed last time that he is still very much on the up when third at York. He has been placed on three of his five starts and is clearly in good form and another bold showing can’t be ruled out here.


Similarly, Robert Eddery’s Donncha has to overcome being drawn in stall 13 but couldn’t be in much better form having chased home Heaven’s Guest in the International Stakes at Ascot last weekend. Prior to that he had won three of his last four starts and last week’s run suggests that he is capable of running well off his new mark. He gets weight all round here and could run a big race from his wide draw.



3.45 Ascot – Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2)




William Haggas has long had a high opinion of Muthmir and he turned in a career best performance to finish second in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. Connections tried stepping up to six furlongs in the July Cup but given how freely he races early on, he didn’t find a lot in the final furlong and it is no surprise to see him revert to this trip. He was sent off the 5/2F for the Steward’s Cup here last year but could only finish fifth although that was also over the six furlongs trip. He carries a penalty here for his Group 2 success in France earlier this season but he has been knocking on the door in some very good races so far this season and it would be a surprise were he not to be in the shake-up once again here.


Move In Time was in fine form throughout last summer, finishing second on three occasions before landing the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in October. A fast five furlongs seems to really suit this seven-year-old and he showed that he was in fine form with himself when winning at 4/9 at Hamilton at the end of June. Connections seems to have really got to the bottom of him and with the Goodwood track likely to suit, he can continue his fine form with another big run here.


There appear to be a few M’s with chances in this race and another is Moviesta who won this race two years ago but joined Eddie Lynam at the beginning of this season. Having run no sort of race on his debut for his new yard in June at Ascot, he showed up much better when fitted with a tongue-tie at the Curragh last time. He travelled well in behind Stepper Point and Mecca’s Angel but he couldn’t pick them up and finished third. He is reported to be in the best shape he has been since joining Eddie Lynam and given his previous exploits at the track, he looks primed to go close once again.


However, it is another course and distance winner who I am going to side with, in the shape of COTAI GLORY. He won the Molecomb here and would have added the Flying Childers at Doncaster to his CV had he not unseated George Baker on the run to the line. His final start at two came in the Prix de l’Abbaye where although finishing 16th, he only actually finished four lengths behind the winner. He was off the track for nine months prior to his return in the City Walls Stakes at York, where he showed up well for a long way before being headed in the closing stages. He should be much straighter for that return to action and in receipt of weight as a three-year-old, he could be hard to beat.



4.20 Goodwood – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Nursery Stakes (Handicap)




I backed Sandahl for a nursery at Pontefract a couple of weeks ago, only for connections to swerve that engagement and run him in the July Stakes at Newmarket instead. He found it quite hard going on that occasion stepping into Group 2 company but I wouldn’t be too quick to write him off just yet. He improved for his first run to win a York maiden which is working out very well, with the first four horses behind him having all won since then. He carries top weight here which is far from ideal but I think his mark of 88 is fair enough on what he has achieved so far and I think he should be thereabouts at the business end of the race.


Belvoir Bay was the best of Richard Hannon’s runner in the Super Sprint at Newbury last time and lost little in defeat, finishing just over three lengths behind the winner. An impressive winner of a Windsor maiden prior to that she wasn’t the most expensive yearling but clearly has ability and looks the pick of the Hannon duo here. The extra furlong shouldn’t be too much of an issue for her and in a wide-open race, she looks to have solid claims.


Of the last time out winners in the race, Kevin Ryan’s Ferryover deserves a second look having dead-heated with John Quinn’s Ancient Astronaut at Ayr in May. Following that race, the horse he shared the spoils with was touted as an Ascot horse although he never took up an engagement there. The fourth-placed horse Lockram won next time at Wolverhampton to give the form something of a boost and it looks as though this colt has been kept with nurseries in mind. Jamie Spencer takes over from Shane Gray in the saddle and he shouldn’t be too far away.


However, the flyer in the field could be Richard Fahey’s ZAHRAT NARJIS who has run in three good maidens so far and may be well-treated off her mark of 72. She was beaten two and three-quarter lengths by Listed winner Delizia on debut before going down by the same margin to Group 3 winner Besharah next time. Her final maiden run saw her finish third behind Justice Angel and a well-backed member of the Sir Michael Stoute yard. She only has 8st 5lb on her back here and with the yard having landed this prize in 2012; they look to have another live contender on their hands here.



4.55 Goodwood – L´Ormarins Queens Plate Stakes (Group 3)




The Classic generation have taken the last three renewals of this seven furlongs contest and looking at their representatives this year, they look likely to be adding a fourth name to that list.


Richard Hannon’s Osaila will no doubt be popular having won the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time as well as her victory in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn earlier in the season. Her only below-par effort this term came when seventh in the 1,000 Guineas although she was keen that day but settled much better next time. She is clearly a good filly and has the inside draw in stall one, she might just be a better filly over a mile but she has won over seven once this term and I can’t see her being too far away at the business end of the race.


Hugo Palmer’s New Providence was only a short-head behind Osaila in the Nell Gwyn earlier this season and having finished second to Majestic Queen over seven furlongs at Lingfield, has dropped back in trip to good effect. She landed the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York last time, holding on from Lucky Kristale and is clearly in fine form with herself at present. Like Osaila, I’m not sure that seven furlongs is her ideal trip but the stable’s horses are flying at present and from a good draw in stall 4, she should make the frame.


One filly who I think does enjoy the seven furlongs is Barry Hills’ FADHAYYIL who got within half a length of Dutch Connection in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. With that colt having subsequently finished second in Group 1 company before running well here earlier in the week that form looks strong. She ran well for a long way in the 1,000 Guineas but didn’t see the mile out as well some of her rivals and this looks tailor-made for her. She will have to overcome a wide draw in stall 10 but she gets 3lb from the two rivals above and this seven furlongs specialist can get her head in front for the first time in Group company here.



5.30 Goodwood – Betfred Mobile Stakes (Handicap)


If there is a Group horse running in a handicap this week, it could come in this race as Richard Hannon pitches TASHAAR into handicap company on the back of an authoritative victory in a Haydock maiden at the end of May. He travelled well throughout the race and although it took a while for the penny to drop to quicken, once he got into top gear he shot clear of his rivals to win with four and a half lengths to spare at the line. On pedigree the step up to 1m3f should be fine for him and there is surely more to come from this Sea The Stars colt. He does have to carry top weight but he looked to have the potential to be a good deal better than a mark of 90 and he looks the one they all have to beat.


Roger Varian’s Taraz is a gelding on the up and he made a mockery of his mark of 65 when winning by eight lengths at Epsom earlier this month. He made all that day, drawing well clear in the closing stages and the handicapper has reacted by putting him up 12lb on the back of that effort. That was over ten furlongs and whilst on breeding the extra distance isn’t guaranteed to bring out further improvement, he wasn’t stopping last time and the extra furlong should be fine. He is drawn in stall 3 which should make it easier to get out and lead if he wishes and given his progressive profile, it is difficult to see him finishing too far away.


Roger Charlton’s Master Zephyr hasn’t been the easiest to win with but he landed a second handicap success at Newbury at the beginning of July. In a small field, he was covered up for a long way before showing a good turn of foot to kick clear and saw out it well, winning by three and a half lengths at the line. His trainer suggested afterwards that was the way to ride him so I wouldn’t be looking for him at the head of proceedings here. Charlton has booked Richard Hughes who is arguably the best jockey around here, especially on patiently ridden horses and if an 8lb rise is not too much, he should show up well once again here.


The final one to mention is Amanda Perrett’s Isamol who having got off the mark at Windsor in April, struggled on his handicap debut the following month. The form of his maiden win has been boosted with a couple of the horses in behind having come out and won since although you need to forgive him his last run. He has been given a bit of time off following three quick runs and it is quite possible that he can resume his progress here. He is drawn well in stall 2 and could have an each-way chance in the race.