NUNTHORPE STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the third day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 21st August. Fillies have done really well in the race recently and impressive Royal Ascot juvenile winner, Acapulco, is an exciting contender this year.



Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings at York (2004-2014):


Age (Win-Place-Runners)


2yo: 1-1-6


3yo: 2-4-32


4yo: 2-5-32


5yo: 1-1-24


6yo+: 4-9-56


horses aged 2 to 5: 6-11-94


horses aged 6 or older: 4-9-56


Of the six 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native & Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.


4 of last 5 winners aged 3 ran in a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos (4th & 3rd Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park & 5th in Cheveley Park)



Gender



Fillies/mares (4-1-27) have won 4 of the last 10 (including the last 3 in which there was a female runner) from less than 20% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form



9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)


7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 sprint that year (one exception was 2nd in group 3 & listed race on 2 runs that year)


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time out (8 of 9 in a class 1 race)


7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ in their last 3 runs


5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, 2 others had yet to run in higher than group 3)


10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race


9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception 2nd on both career runs in 5F class 1 races)


5 of 10 winners had won over 6F


4 of 10 winners had won at York (2 other placed here, and 3 others having first course run)



Other Races


Previous season's winner (Sole Power): 80316 (1-1-5)


City Walls Stakes winner (Out Do): 018318 (2-1-6)


Al Quoz Sprint winner (Sole Power): 12 (1-1-2)


Palace House Stakes winner (Goldream): 705031 (1-1-6)


British Stallion Studs Conditions Stakes winner (Justineo): 10 (1-0-2)


Sandown Scurry Stakes winner (Waady): 619 (1-0-3)


Temple Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 0180965 (1-0-7)


King George Stakes winner (Muthmir): 00668108 (1-0-8)


Kings Stand winner (Goldream): 29033 (0-3-5)


Kings Stand highet placed finisher: 2902003631 (1-4-10)


Scarborough Stakes winner (Mecca's Angel): 033 (0-2-3)


Coral Charge winner (Waady): 536763 (0-2-6)


Phoenix Sprint Stakes winner (Mattmu): 300 (0-1-3)


Sapphire Stakes winner (Stepper Point): 5020 (0-1-4)


Dubai World Trophy winner (Mecca's Angel): 2690 (0-1-4)


Molecomb Stakes winner (Cotai Glory): 00 (0-0-2)


Prix de Saint-Georges winner (Mecca's Angel): 905 (0-0-3)


Abernant Stakes winner (Astaire): 406 (0-0-3)


Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap winner (Out Do): 6050 (0-0-4)


Prix du Gros Chene winner (Muthmir): 40004507 (0-0-8)


Record of horses that finished in first 4 in Palace House Stakes: 470315161253521 (4-4-15)


Record of horses that finished in top 6 in previous Abbaye: 210526702916307431 (3-5-18)


4 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 7091


4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 4341


4 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 6410


3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 636


2 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 04


2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 12


2 of 10 winners ran in City Walls Stakes, finishing 11


2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13


2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09


2 of 4 female winners ran in Land O'Burns Stakes, finishing 12


4 of last 5 winners aged 3 finished in first 5 in a group 1 as a 2yo at Newmarket



The last winner of Queen Mary to run in this was Lyric Fantasy (1992), who followed by winning this.



Trainers



British-trained runners: 7-15-126


Irish-trained runners: 2-4-14


Australian-trained: 1-0-2


South African-trained: 0-1-3


French-trained runners: 0-0-5


Eddie Lynam (2-1-5) has trained Sole Power to win it in 2010 & 2014 and finish 3rd in 2013.


Robert Cowell (1-2-6) trained the 3rd in 2011, 2nd in 2012 and 40/1 winner in 2013.


Eric Alston (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2007.


Aidan O’Brien (0-2-3) trained the winner in 1999 & 2001 (both had run in the Jersey Stakes). 2 of his 3 runners in past 10 runnings have both been placed.


Kevin Ryan (0-3-16) and Tim Easterby (0-2-8) have both saddled multiple placed finishers.


William Muir (0-1-1) saddled Stepper Point to finish 2nd in 2014.


Henry Candy (0-0-4) trained the winner in 2002 but has seen his last 4 all finish unplaced.



Draw



horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-6-40


horses drawn 5 to 8: 3-3-40


horses drawn 9 to 12: 4-7-40


horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-4-30


6 of last 7 winners (last 5) have been drawn 7 to 12.



Price



No strong trends on prices, the first 4 winners from 2000 were favourites however 5 of last 7 winners have gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1, 20/1 & 40/1.


Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 2 that had won or placed at Royal Ascot


- Aged 3 that finished in first 5 in Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo or


- Aged 4+ that has won a group 1 or 2


- Fillies & mares do well (especially those that ran in Land O'Burns Stakes)


- Won a listed or group sprint in 2015


- Posted an RPR of 112+ in last 3 starts


- Previously won a group 1 or 2 sprint


- Has won over 5F


- Ran in King’s Stand, King George Stakes and/or 2014 Abbaye


- Finished in first 4 in Temple, Cammidge City Walls and/or Palace House Stakes


- Trained by Eddie Lynam, Robert Cowell or Aidan O’Brien


- Drawn 7 to 12


- Do not discount longshots.