The Secretariat Stakes is one of three grade 1 races taking place at Arlington Park on Saturday, 15th August. There have been four Irish-trained winners since the turn of the century and 4 of last 7 winners were trained in Europe.




Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age



Race for 3yos



Breeding



USA bred: 6-13-69


French bred: 2-0-3


Irish bred: 1-4-11


GB bred: 1-0-1


German bred: 0-0-1


USA bred horses have won 6 of last 10, though they represented over 81.1% of total runners.


European bred horses (4-4-16) have won 4 of 10 and seen half their runners make the places.


2 of 3 French bred horses to run in this in past 10 years have been successful.


8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a grade/group 1 winner on turf


Galileo progeny: 141 (2-0-3)


Kitten's Joy progeny: 5873061 (1-1-7)


War Front progeny: 33 (0-2-2)


Tiznow progeny: 32 (0-2-2)



Weight



horses carrying 9-0: 2-2-6


horses carrying 8-11: 2-5-21


horses carrying 8-9: 1-5-13


horses carrying 8-7: 5-5-45


horses carrying 8-11 or more: 4-7-27


horses carrying 8-10 or less: 6-10-58




Recent/Past Form



10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times that year


10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days


9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception finished 2nd on last 4 runs)


8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last start (2 exceptions ran in the Irish Derby on last start)


7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ on previous start


7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (all exceptions had won over at least 1M)


7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race (1 exception 2nd in grade 1)


1 of 10 winners had previous won a grade/group 1


7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a race worth $150K+



Other Races







American Derby winner (World Approval): 17383466 (1-1-8)



Penn Mile winner (Force The Pass): 0 (0-0-1)



The Virginia Derby & Colonial Turf had been the 2 key races for this for American runners but both races have now been discontinued.


2 winners of Secretariat went on to win the Belmont Derby Invitational (in October). This race has now been moved to July and was won by Force The Pass this year. Last year's Secretariat winner, Adelaide, finished 2nd in Belmont Derby on previous start.



2 of 6 winners (trained in USA) ran in the Palm Beach Stakes, finishing 61



2 of 6 winners (trained in USA) ran in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 63



2 of 6 winners (trained in USA) ran in the Preakness, finishing 06



2 of 6 winners (trained in USA) ran in the American Derby, finishing 12



2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in King Edward VII Stakes, finishing 82



3 of 4 winners that had yet to race in USA ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 971




Irish Derby



Runners who came from the Irish Derby at the Curragh to run in this have done really well. Highland Reel finished 5th in this year’s Irish Derby.


Since 2000, six horses have run in Irish Derby & then proceeded to run in this:


2011: 1st Treasure Beach, was 1st in Irish Derby


2008: 1st Winchester was 7th in Irish Derby, btn 12½L


2007: 1st Shamdinan was 9th in Irish Derby, btn 36L


2004: 3rd Moscow Ballet (btn 4½L in this) was 7th in Irish Derby, btn 11½L


2002: 2nd Jazz Beat (btn a nose in this) was 8th in Irish Derby, btn 19½L


2000: 1st Ciro was 3rd in Irish Derby, btn 10½L



Trainers



North American trained runners: 6-12-67


Irish-trained runners: 3-3-12


French-trained: 1-1-3


English-trained runners: 0-1-3


6 of 10 winners were trained in America, though they represented 78.8% of total runners.


Aidan O’Brien (2-3-8) trained in 2000, 2011 & 2014 and also saddled 3 other places in last 10 years. His 2 winners in past 10 runnings were both sired by Galileo.


Bill Mott (1-1-6) trained the winner in 2005 (& 1985) and the runner-up in 2014.


Michael Maker (1-0-5) won this with Admiral’s Kitten in 2013. He has another son of Kitten’s Joy entered this year.



Price



10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting


The last 10 winners were all sent off shorter than 8/1. The longest priced winner since 2005 was Winchester at 15/2 in 2008.


Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 (all 6/4 or shorter) and show a level stakes loss of 2.40 over past 10 years.



Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- horse bred in Europe do well (especially French breds)


- Sired by a grade/group 1 winner on turf


- Run 4 to 6 times this year


- Finished in first 4 in a graded race last time (posting RPR of 109+)


- Ran in the past 50 days


- Won over 1M 1½F or further


- Has won a graded/group race


- American-trained runner that finished in first 3 in American Derby or Kentucky Derby


- European-trained runner that ran in Irish Derby and/or King Edward VII Stakes


- Trained by Bill Mott or in Ireland (especially Aidan O’Brien-trained sons of Galileo)


- From first 4 in the betting (no bigger than 8/1).