1.55 York – DBS Premier Yearling Stakes

The Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury looks likely to be a strong guide as to how this race is likely to pan with the winner Lathom coming here in search of a notable double. Richard Fahey’s colt came with a strong run inside the final furlong at Newbury and held off the challenge of stablemate Mr Lupton to land the spoils. He stepped into Group company in the Molecomb last time at Goodwood and despite finishing fifth, he would have finished a little nearer with a clear run through. He carries joint-top weight here but the draw has been kind to him in stall 19 and if he is suited by the extra furlong then he should be thereabouts.

Back in fifth at Newbury was Tim Easterby’s Excessable who was well-backed throughout the week and was sent off the 2/1 favourite on the day. My personal opinion was that those racing prominently on the far side probably took each other on early on and they paid for it in the closing stages. He showed up well throughout and it is testament to his ability that he was able to stay there and was only beaten three lengths at the line. I think the extra furlong should mean that the pace is less frenetic and it should suit this colt well as he showed on debut that he has a turn of foot. He does have a bit to find with those who have been running in Group company but he is clearly well thought of by the yard and I can’t see him being too far away.

Also carrying the top weight of 9st 2lb along with Lathom is Tasleet who represents the William Haggas yard which have taken this race for the last two years. Like last year’s winner Mubtaghaa, this colt is owned by Sheikh Hamdan and was last seen finishing second behind the impressive Shalaa in the Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He was fourth over course and distance on his racecourse debut before getting off the mark at Chepstow and winning a Listed contest at Newbury. He does concede weight to all but one of his rivals here but his official handicap mark of 109 suggests that he could be a good deal better than his opposition today. He should be able to get a good position from stall 14 and dropping in class, he looks likely to run a big race.

At the prices, with Tasleet at around the 11/8 mark, I think that is short enough in a race of this nature and will go with Tim Easterby’s EXCESSABLE to go a bit closer than he did at Newbury last time. He is available at around the 14/1 mark and he looks to have a good each-way chance in the race.



my Advice

EXCESSABLE – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)



2.30 York – Pinsent Masons Lowther Stakes (Group 2)

The Lowther has thrown up some top-class winners in recent years with the likes of Russian Rhythm, Nahoodh and Tiggy Wiggy all finding their way onto the roll of honour in recent years. Looking at this year’s line-up I have no doubt that there is at least one very good filly taking their chance and they may not even get their head in front.

The talk of Middleham for some time has been Lumiere who couldn’t have been any more impressive when winning on debut at Newmarket at the July meeting. Mark Johnston’s filly was fast away from the stalls and having been asked to quicken in the final furlong, really picked up well to win by six lengths at the line. The stories of her pieces of morning work have been well-publicised and she clearly has an engine but she is 6/4 in a race against several fillies which have already shown themselves to be more than capable at this sort of level. In truth she may well win but I think on this occasion it might be worth looking past her, especially given the quality of her opposition.

Royal Ascot form often stands up well and with the Queen Mary winner a short-priced favourite for the Nunthorpe later in the week, it is worth considering the second and third from that race who run here. Easton Angel got within one and a half lengths of the winner that day despite appearing to be drawn on the wrong side and she was unlucky not to finish nearer than fourth in the Duchess Of Cambridge next time. William Haggas’ Besharah was a nose second in the latter race before gaining a first Group success in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot next time. She continues to improve and with the yard having saddled the winner of this race in 2012, she looks to have every chance of running a big race.

However, those of you who read my Royal Ascot preview will know that I was sweet on the chances of ASHADIHAN in the Albany Stakes and she lost little in defeat when finishing second to Illuminate. She came from a long way back that day under a patient ride from Jamie Spencer despite the ground being quick enough for her according to her trainer. The drizzle that York have had should have taken any sting out of the ground and I think is very overpriced at around 7/1. She hasn’t been seen since Ascot but she has gears and if she can step forward from her latest effort, I can’t see her being out of the frame. She is clearly up against some high-class opposition here but she has already shown herself to be pretty good and if she can find further improvement she could be the one to cause a small upset.



my Advice

ASHADIHAN – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Boylesports, Bet365)



3.05 York – Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap)

The trends should hopefully help us narrow down this field of 20 and by far the strongest of those patterns is that concerning age. Of the last ten renewals, three and four-year-olds have landed nine of them, perhaps because they are less exposed and possibly better than their current handicap marks suggest. The four-year-olds lining up this year are You’re Fired, Mange All, He’s No Saint and Extremity, with Western Reserve the only member of the Classic generation in this year’s field.

It is hardly surprising given the competitive nature of this sort of race that horses have to be at the top of their games to get their heads in front and this is backed up by the fact that eight of the last ten winners had finished no worse than sixth on their most recent outing. It is therefore not a race in which it is wise to be taking a chance on horses bouncing back to form and it is better to look for those with solid last time-out form. Only five of this year’s field fall at this particular hurdle, (Chil The Kite, Bronze Angel, One Word More, Kelinni and Mont Ras) so it may be best to steer clear of this quintet.

The draw can often play a big part in this race with those drawn wide often finding it difficult to get a position early on, with jockeys either using up valuable energy to get to the front or dropping in and getting too far back in the race. This is backed up by the fact that seven of the last ten winners were drawn no higher than 12, so be wary of any runner from a wide stall. Those in the very high numbers include Russian Realm (14), Extremity (20) and Western Reserve (17).

Weight carried can often dictate a horse’s finishing position and although there is only a stone between the top and bottom weights in this particular race, it would be useful to eliminate some of the field on this basis. Looking at the last ten runnings of the race, the optimum bracket appears to be between 8st 12lb and 9st 4lb with six of the winners during that time falling into this group. Looking at this year’s field, the bottom weight Balducci misses out here as do the top four on the racecard, Chil The Kite, Birdman, Bronze Angel and One Word More. The Rectifier and Kelinni would also have missed the cut but their trainers have chosen to make use of 5lb claimers to take a little weight off their backs.

The final factor worthy of a mention is the betting and the only favourite to oblige in the last ten years was The Illies who was sent off the 5/1 market leader in 2007. An average winning SP of just over 11/1 suggests that we don’t want to be looking too far down the list but it seems sensible to look beyond those at the top of the market.





Shortlist

MANGE ALL – 5/5

You’re Fired – 5/5

He’s No Saint – 5/5



Conclusion

With all things considered we have three horses which match all five of our trends with marginal preference going to MANGE ALL. William Haggas’ gelding is fairly lightly raced and was last seen finishing fifth in the Lincoln at Doncaster back in March. That was just his eighth start and you would have to think that there is more to come from this four-year-old. His trainer won this race in 2009 courtesy of Roaring Forte so he knows what it takes and he looks to be perfectly positioned coming from stall 6. He will need to be razor sharp on his return from 145 days off to win here, but his trainer is a dab hand at these sorts of races and I think he is the one to beat.

Also joining him on the shortlist is You’re Fired who has been placed over course and distance on his last two visits to the Knavesmire. He was slowly away last time and didn’t enjoy a clear run but was staying on well at the finish and he might have been closer to the principals with an untroubled passage. He is progressing well and has just snuck in on the draw trend having been allocated stall 12. He too is fairly lightly raced and if he reproduces his last run, I can’t see him being too far away.

The final member of the shortlist is He’s No Saint who represents the David O’Meara stable and when last seen in July, bolted up over today’s course and distance. He made all that day setting a steady tempo before quickening off the front and drawing clear to win by three and three-quarter lengths. He is unlikely to get such an easy lead this time around and even from stall 11 it could be hard to get across to the rail and lead. He has gone up 11lb on the back of his latest win but his trainer continues to improve his horses and this course and distance winner cannot be dismissed lightly.



my Advice

MANGE ALL – 2pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power)



3.40 York – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)

Covert Love gave Hugo Palmer a first Classic success when landing the Irish Oaks last time and currently heads the market to follow up here. She looked a strong stayer on the day and raced closest to the pacemaker early on and was able to take advantage of her good position in the straight. She is clearly a progressive filly having won her last four starts and she justified her trainer’s decision to send her there on the back of a Listed win at Newcastle. I think she benefitted from where she was positioned in the race but that is not to say I don’t think she was a worthy winner on the day and I find it difficult to see any of those who finished behind her reversing the form here. She is still lightly-raced and this course should suit her as it did when she won here in May. She sets a good standard and I think it will take a very good filly to beat her here.

Of those who finished behind her at the Curragh I think that Jack Naylor probably has the best chance of getting close to her having been given plenty to do last time. This may have been because she shaped a bit like a non-stayer in the Oaks at Epsom but there was no doubting that she had the required stamina last time. That was just her third run of the year and she is starting to show the sort of form that saw her beat Legatissimo as a two-year-old. The track should suit her and a repeat of her latest effort would see her close the gap on the favourite although as I said earlier, I think it could be tough to reverse the places.

However, I think the forgotten filly in the race could be Jim Bolger’s PLEASCACH who was being described as one of the best fillies he had trained not so long ago. She finished a length second to Curvy at Royal Ascot but probably got racing a bit soon and was just run down in the closing stages. She was then sent out just 10 days later in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and whilst she didn’t run badly, she could only finish fifth. I think her four runs in the space of two months took their toll on the filly and she is very interesting having had a break. I think she does stay 1m4f and she showed in the Irish 1000 Guineas that she has enough toe if it turns tactical. I don’t believe we have seen the best of the filly on her last two starts but she should be primed for this assignment. She looked a top-class filly earlier in the year and I think she can confirm that here and the fact that she is around 7/1 is even better. Her trainer is no stranger to success in this race and I think she can get her head back in front here.



my Advice

PLEASCACH – 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Coral)



4.20 York – EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race)

Roger Charlton’s Suffused was well fancied to run well in the Upavon Fillies Stakes at Salisbury last week and despite beating the rest of her nine rivals, she found one too good in the shape of John Gosden’s Journey. I don’t think she can be judged too harshly on that however as she beat the likes of Tazffin and Chain Of Daisies on the day who are good fillies in their own right. She tries 1m4f for the first time here and on breeding at least I don’t see it being an issue and given how strongly she finishes her races over slightly shorter trips also gives me hope that she will stay. To be fair, there isn’t much meat in her price again as at the time of writing she is the 4/1 favourite but she looks a progressive filly and looks worthy of a place on the shortlist.

Suffused’s conqueror last week hailed from the John Gosden stable and he saddles a runner here in the shape of Martlet who has won two of her three starts since stepping up to ten furlongs. She was well beaten in a Listed race at Newbury back in May but she was given a break after that and the way in which she won in handicap company a couple of weeks ago suggests that she has improved for some time off. Both of her wins to date have come at Chelmsford which raises the slight possibility that she might be a better filly on the all-weather but having had only four runs it is a little early to be labelling her an all-weather specialist. She is clearly heading the right way and given the stable from where she hails it would be no surprise to see her go close on her return to this level.

One of the more lightly-raced runners in the field is the regally-bred Koora who is a half-sister to St Leger winner Milan. She is trained by Luca Cumani who has won the race four times since 1994 although it is worth bearing in mind that he hasn’t saddled a winner of the race since 1999. Nevertheless in her two runs to date, she has looked to have plenty of ability, keeping on nicely from the back to finish third on debut before looking much sharper at Doncaster next time. She travelled well throughout and kept on in the closing stages giving us hope that the step up to 1m4f should be in her favour. She steps straight out of maiden company into Listed class but I’m sure her trainer wouldn’t be doing that unless he felt she was up to it. She could be anything and whilst she might lack the experience to get her head in front, I would not be surprised to see her shape well.

However, my preference in this particular race is for Saeed Bin Suroor’s DESERT SNOW who ran well for a long way on her return to action at Newmarket last month. As the field got to the bottom of the hill she looked to be travelling best but her rivals were a little sharper and she could finish only third. That run came after a lay-off of about eight months and she just looked to need the run in the final furlong on this occasion. She should strip fitter for that effort and she looked a smart filly on the all-weather last year winning at up to two miles in impressive fashion. She doesn’t have much to find with the likes of Jordan Princess on her Newmarket effort and I fancy her to run well at around the 8/1 mark.



my Advice

DESERT SNOW – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)



4.55 York – Eventmasters 30 Years Of Hospitality Expertise EBF Stallions Stakes

Last year this fillies handicap was won by an upwardly mobile three-year-old in the shape of Bragging and there a couple in this year’s line-up that look likely to be taking their chance in Group company before long.

Charlie Appleby’s MISTRUSTING may have two victories from four starts to her name but she could easily be unbeaten having run into Malabar and Magical Memory on the two occasions she has been beaten. She had her first start since May last week at Newmarket and took on a smart stablemate in the shape of Wordcraft who won her first two starts. However Mistrusting was too good for her rivals on the day, finishing her race strongly and winning with two and a half lengths to spare at the line. She carries a 6lb penalty here for that success but I’m not sure that will be enough to stop her as she looks a filly destined for Pattern company before long. After a break of a couple of months you never really know how they will react to being turned out again quickly but on the form at least, she looks justified in her place as the 4/1 favourite.

Her main danger could be Roger Varian’s Spangled who won in good style at Newmarket’s July meeting on her handicap debut. She travelled well into the race and having hit the front with a furlong to run, she stayed on well under hands and heels to win with a length to spare. She also beat Wordcraft that day by a smaller margin that Mistrusting did but the ground may just have been quick enough for Spangled at Newmarket but she overcame it well. She has gone up 9lb on the back of that effort although she is a big filly and I don’t see her having any issues carrying a little more weight. She also looks a filly on the up although it may be that she has bumped into one here.

I should also briefly mention Dusky Queen who carries top weight here and having won over course and distance back in May, she landed a first Listed success at Chester in July. She loves it here at York having had eight runs with three victories and two thirds to her name. She is flying high here off a mark of 102 and I think she may find it difficult to concede weight to some of the less exposed fillies but she is pretty consistent and I would not be surprised to see her run well again here.



my Advice

MISTRUSTING – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)