Day 4 yorks Ebor meeting - 22/8/2015

[ganjaman2]

2.00 York – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)

Following a couple of indifferent efforts Mondialiste bounced right back to form when winning impressively at Pontefract last time. He drew clear to win by ten lengths at the line and this was undoubtedly his best performance since coming over from France. He made all that day and he is drawn well enough so that he should be able to adopt a prominent position once again here. He is pretty versatile ground wise having won on everything from good to soft and good to firm ground. The yard may just be starting to get the best out of this five-year-old and if he can build on his latest effort, he shouldn’t be too far away here.

However, I think this race could revolve around two progressive four-year-olds who have each already won on several occasions this term between them. Mahsoob raced only once as a two-year-old getting off the mark at the first attempt at Kempton and having won at Newbury on his return he followed that up with successes at York and Royal Ascot. He stepped up in trip to 1m4f in Group 2 company last time but was keen early on and didn’t really see his race out so it isn’t any surprise that he is dropped back in trip here. He shouldn’t be judged too harshly on that run and he looks likely to be in the shake-up down in trip.

The preference however is for BASEM who has done nothing but improve this term and despite finishing fourth last time, he ran really well from a poor draw. He is a strong stayer at a mile so this extended mile should be right up his street and he always tends to be prominent in his races which should suit the way races pan out here. His connections are of the belief that he can improve as he gets older and the fact that he just seems to do enough in his races gives me the impression that we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He has some nice entries in the not too distant future and I find it hard to see him out of the first three on his first start in Group company.

my Advice

BASEM – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)



2.35 York – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)


The Melrose is notoriously one of the hardest 3yo handicaps to win and it is little surprise that it has once again attracted a stellar field for this year’s renewal.

Ralph Beckett’s Maxwell has been progressing well this term and turned in his best performance to date when stepped up to 1m4f last time. He looked a strong stayer that day so looks worth a go at this trip and there should be further improvement to come from him given that he has only had six runs so far. James Doyle has been booked to take the ride and he looks a lively contender.

The least experienced member of the field is the top weight Outspoken who represents the Aidan O’Brien stable. The younger O’Brien brother Donnacha comes over to take the ride and takes a valuable 5lb off his back and he has already shown himself to be a smart rider having landed a couple of big prizes in Ireland. He won impressively by four and a quarter lengths last time over ten furlongs and steps up markedly in trip here. Runners from this yard are always respected when sent over and whilst I think he is shorter in the market than his form deserves, he shouldn’t be too far away.

There are a couple of bigger prices who make some appeal the first of which is Brian Meehan’s Senrima who won twice in July before struggling with the drop back in trip at Goodwood next time. The track probably wasn’t totally to his liking that day and the switch to a more galloping one like York should see him seen to better effect. He is one of a clutch of progressive stayers in the field and can outrun his odds of around 16/1.

At an even bigger price is Botany Bay whose stand-out piece of form was three starts ago when he beat Fields Of Athenry who lines up in the Ebor later in the afternoon. He ran in a three runner race next time before dropping back in trip at Dundalk which is curious as his trainer said he felt he was really nice stayer and now he steps him up in trip here. Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride and I would suggest a small each-way bet at 33/1.

However, my main selection in the race is HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY who I have had this race in mind for since the beginning of the season. He was a little unlucky to run into a couple of smart performers on his first two starts this season but he is improving and stayed on strongly last time to beat the smart Penhill. He should be even better at this 1m6f trip and despite sitting towards the head of the weights I think he can carry on improving. He is currently around the 15/2 mark and looks to have strong each-way claims in the race.


my Advice

HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (General)

Botany Bay – 0.5pt e/w @ 28/1 (bet365)




3.10 York – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)

The Coventry Stakes winner Buratino is likely to be well-fancied to bounce back to form having been beaten in Ireland last time but I am not sure it will be that easy. Connections seem to have come to the consensus that he needs fast ground to be shown to his best and that is something he is not likely to get here. He also shoulders a penalty for his Group 2 win something that only two horses since 2001 have managed to do successfully.

So if not him then who is likely to run well? The American raider Finnegan comes with a lofty reputation as talk of his pieces of work with the brilliant Acapulco suggest he could be another monster unleashed by the Ward stable. He won over five furlongs on his second start by five lengths back in May and this has been the target since he missed his intended engagement at Royal Ascot. He will need to prove himself on the ground here but the trainer’s juveniles tend to be forward and if this colt is as good as they say, he should be right there.

The Prix Robert Papin could prove a good guide to this race with the runner-up Ajaya and third Areen both taking their chance here. The former looks to be improving all the time and whilst he has yet to win over six furlongs, he has run well twice over an extended five furlongs so I don’t think that will be too much of an issue. The William Haggas team are flying at present and he looks the pick of the yard’s two runners. He has already run well in two Group 2 contests this term and given his continued improvement I think he sets a good standard.

I should also say that I don’t expect Richard Hannon’s KING OF ROOKS to be too far away on his return to six furlongs. He was probably undone by the draw more than anything at Goodwood last time and the way he was niggled at throughout suggests to me that he is probably ready for another furlong now. We know he has plenty of ability and is not far off one of the best juveniles that we saw in the early part of the year. He hasn’t done much wrong since then and he gets the narrow vote in what I think is quite a difficult race to call.


my Advice

KING OF ROOKS – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)



3.45 York – Betfred Ebor (HANDICAP)

This race has proved a real graveyard for older contenders with only two horses older than five being able to land the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon scored as a nine-year-old in 1979. The two older horses to score have both done so in the last ten years but even so, this is a particularly strong negative statistic. There are several runners in today’s field aged six or above including the likes of Clondaw Warrior, Quick Jack and Wicklow Brave.

Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only two of the last ten winners (excluding the 2008 renewal run at Newbury) scoring from stall 14 or lower. With victory in the Betfred Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide.

The weights in the Betfred Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only four of the last 25 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st 3lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and the chances of the seven in the field who are carrying the desired weight must be increased.

The 2011 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a well-established trend, notably that he had finished outside of the first four on his most recent start. This is a stat that has accounted for seven of the last ten winners, so it does not look a race in which it is best to pin your hopes on a horse returning to form here.

Moyenne Corniche and the 2012 winner Willing Foe, are also the only winners in recent times not to have won a race of any nature during the current season. Of this year’s field there are ten who fall at this particular hurdle – Havana Beat, Angel Gabrial, Ajman Bridge, Suegioo, Excellent Result, Arabian Comet, Nearly Caught, Toe The Line, Quick Jack and Litigant.

Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been four winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price.

Shortlist

FUN MAC – 5/6

Astronereus – 5/6

Field Of Athenry – 5/6

Conclusion

In an ultra-competitive renewal of the race, we have three contenders who stand out missing just one trend each.

Astronereus has enjoyed an excellent season and won the Listed John Smith’s Silver Cup over course and distance back in July. His main obstacle appears to be the weight he carries as he has 9st 9lb on his back and were he to successfully carry that much weight, he would be the first to do so since Sea Pigeon in 1979. Apart from that he looks to have plenty going in his favour and having run well again at Goodwood last time in a similarly competitive race, he can’t be dismissed lightly.

The sole three-year-old in the line-up Fields Of Athenry also comes out well in the trends and the last member of the Classic generation to win this was also trained by Aidan O’Brien. A ten lengths winner on his penultimate start, he had no problems winning in Group 3 company next time and is clearly a colt on the up. The 5lb of Donnacha O’Brien takes him into the desired weight bracket but the major stumbling block could be his support in the market. He currently shares favouritism with Clondaw Warrior but if he can overcome that burden, he should run a big race.

However, the marginal preference goes to Hughie Morrison’s FUN MAC who absolutely bolted up in Salisbury’s City Bowl earlier this season and was raised 14lb by the handicapper as a result. He showed he was up to carrying that sort of weight second in the Ascot Stakes last time, beaten just half a length and another big run is expected here. The only trend he misses is weight but on 9st 4lb he is only 1lb outside the preferred range, so I am not too concerned. He sits towards the bottom of the weights and with seemingly plenty going in his favour, he looks the standout choice.


my Advice

FUN MAC – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (SportingBet)





4.20 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race)


Mark Johnston’s Riflescope is one of the more experienced runners in the line-up here and whilst he was well-beaten in the Richmond Stakes last time, if you look at his form he is a better horse over the minimum trip. Having won his maiden at the second attempt, he ran a cracker in the Norfolk Stakes to finish fourth, just one and a half lengths behind the winner Waterloo Bridge. He won the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown on his penultimate start and despite carrying a penalty for that victory, he still looks to be of significant interest. The yard’s horses haven’t been too far away this week and this horse should be well suited to a fast run five here on the Knavesmire.

Martyn Meade continues to build his reputation as a trainer and having done well with fillies and two-year-olds in particular, his runner here Kurland deserves a second look. She was very impressive when winning on debut at the Craven meeting and ran well to finish fourth in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. She finished behind the likes of Acapulco and Besharah on that occasion which of course we know is form not to be sniffed at. She tried six furlongs at the July meeting but was much too keen early on and it is no surprise to see her drop back to the minimum distance here. She gets a nice 5lb fillies allowance and as long as the ground is quick enough for her, I think she looks a likely candidate for the frame.

However, I think they may have their work cut out to be beat ORNATE who comes from the all-conquering William Haggas yard. He ran really well on debut only to be collared inside the last half furlong by stronger stayers at six. He dropped back to five at Ripon last time and won as he liked under hands and heels by five lengths. He clearly has a good engine and this race has been nominated as a target for a little while. He is a half-brother to the stable’s Group 2 winning juvenile Saayerr and there should be more to come on just the third start of his career. He will need to find that improvement to beat rivals who have already been competing at Listed and Group level but he has a nice profile coming into the race and I think he is the one to beat.


my Advice

ORNATE – 2pts win @ 5/4 (General)



4.55 York – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)


We have a 1m2f handicap to tackle next here and Forgotten Hero brings solid course and distance form to the table having finished fourth in the John Smith’s Cup back in July. He didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages that day having been slowly away and was doing all of his best work late on. He was only beaten about two and a half lengths at the line and with the form of those finishing in front of him working out well, it seems to be holding up. He enjoyed a similarly rough passage at Goodwood last time where he finished eighth but the up side is that he runs here off the same mark as he did in the John Smiths Cup. He seems to enjoy galloping tracks like Doncaster and Newmarket and he also looks well-suited to the Knavesmire. He is pretty consistent and if he can reproduce his John Smiths Cup run here, he shouldn’t be too far away.

Towards the bottom of the weights is the three-year-old Pacify who was last seen winning a two-runner race by ten lengths at Newmarket last month. He seems to be improving having stepped up in trip and he sneaks in here at the bottom of the weights. The talented Edward Greatrex takes a useful 5lb off his back and although he will need to improve on what he has shown to date, having only had five runs that is far from out of the question.

I am always interested in Godolphin runners in handicaps as they actually have a better record than you might first think. They are represented here by Elhaame who has run well on his last two starts, winning at Windsor in June before chasing home the smart Mount Logan at Goodwood next time. He continues to creep up the weights and is now on a career high of 101 but the way he travelled last time suggested that there may still be more to come from this five-year-old. James Doyle knows him well and if he continues his current run of form, he shouldn’t be too far away.

I fancied EARTH DRUMMER to run well on his return to action in the Shergar Cup a couple of weeks ago and on the back of that effort, he looks worth another look here. He did look as though the race would bring him on physically and whilst he was only beaten half a length, he never really looked comfortable on the ground. It was good to firm that day and he carried his head to one side throughout but the ground here at York will be nothing like that. A winner over 9.5f, the step up to ten furlongs shouldn’t be an issue for him and as always David O’Meara’s runners at York are to be strongly considered. His return to action should have put him spot on for this and from a good draw in stall 10, I fancy him to get his head in front.


my Advice

EARTH DRUMMER – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)



5.25 York – Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)


As always at the Ebor meeting the final race on day four gives the apprentices a chance to shine on the big stage and many of the protagonists for the apprentice title are on show here.

Cam Hardie has once again enjoyed another fine season having already ridden 32 winners and he gets the leg up on Scent Of Summer here for William Haggas. The filly had not been seen since October when returning to action in July and dropped back to five furlongs for the first time, she won readily, drawing clear in the closing stages to win by three and a half lengths at the line. This is clearly a different kettle of fish but her mark of 84 does not look overly harsh on the face of it and she shouldn’t be too far away. The yard have another runner in Foreign Diplomat but he is not the easiest and I prefer the chances of the filly to the gelding. She could be anything and it would be no surprise to see her go well for her more than capable pilot.

Roger Varian also saddles an improving filly in the shape of Imtiyaaz who registered her second success of the campaign when winning at Ripon at the beginning of the month. She found trouble in running that day but had enough ability to get her jockey out of a hole and won with more in hand than the three-quarters of a length winning margin suggested last time. The predominantly Irish-based Conor Hoban comes over to take the ride and despite an 8lb rise in the weights, she shouldn’t be too far away at the business end of the race.

I mentioned the Shergar Cup earlier on and one of more annoying results on the day was the victory of Moonraker in the final race, with our selection having unseated his rider leaving the stalls. Mick Channon’s colt won at Ascot on debut and I must confess I backed him quite a few times as a two-year-old including here when he was beaten a nose in the Julia Graves Roses Stakes. His jockey mentioned that he wasn’t sure he would stay six last time and despite getting the job done, connections have dropped him back to five here. He concedes weight all around here with the 5lb claim of Daniel Cremin taking some weight off his back and given the quality of his course and distance form, he looks a likely candidate for the frame.

However, I will give one last chance to HANDSOME DUDE who rewarded us last week with an each-way return at Newmarket. That was over six furlongs and having won his maiden here over the extended five furlongs last year, I fancy him to go well with the blinkers retained. David Barron has managed to secure the services of Jack Garritty to ride him and as we have already seen this week, Jack is a more than capable pilot. He hasn’t been running too badly off this sort of mark of late and I get the impression that it won’t be long before he gets his head in front. Hopefully today will be the day and we can end the week with a w inner.

my Advice

HANDSOME DUDE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, Coral)