CELEBRATION MILE TRENDS 2015

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The Group 2 Doom Bar Celebration Mile takes place on the 29th August and is the highlight at Goodwood on Saturday. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 5-2-18

4yo: 0-5-17

5yo: 3-4-16

6yo+: 2-2-15

3yos have taken 5 of the last 7 renewals (& weren’t represented in 2013). 4 of 5 ran in English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas and 3 of the 5 had run in the St James Palace Stakes.



Gender

Fillies and mares (2-1-7) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 8 to run in the race since 2004, have been successful, though last 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute with Chic accounting for 2 of the wins.



Weight

horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 3 (0-0-1)

horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 36523 (0-3-5)

Since 2000, all 12 runners to carry a penalty have been beaten.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that season

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (3 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1 or 2)

5 of 5 winners aged 3 had posted an RPR of 111+ earlier that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M

9 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (2 exceptions were listed winners)

0 of 10 winners had won a group 1

9 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (exception yet to run in a group 1)

4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as 2yos



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from St James' Palace Stakes: 8111 (3-0-4)

Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas: 831115 (3-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from Hungerford Stakes: 2136 (1-1-4)

Sovereign Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 6513 (1-1-4)

Previous year's Winkfield Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 1 (1-0-1)

John Of Gaunt Stakes winner (Cable Bay): 2 (0-0-1)

Jersey Stakes winner (Dutch Connection): 2 (0-1-1)

Midsummer Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 2 (0-1-1)

Superior Mile winner (Captain Cat): 6 (0-0-1)

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 422

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 226

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 82

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Spring Cup, finishing 19

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Lingfield International Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 34

2 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes last time, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 02



Trainers

John Gosden (1-0-1) trained the 1st & 4th in 1998, the runner-up in 2000 and his only runner in the past 10 years was Raven’s Pass, winner in 2008.

Roger Charlton (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners in this since 2005 make the frame.

David Simcock (0-1-1) & James Fanshawe (0-1-4) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.



Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was a 20/1 shot in 2012.

Favourites (3-2-10) have 3 of the last 10, which isn’t a great record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 11/8 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 4.46.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 3yo that posted an RPR of 111+ in 2015

- Fillies/mares aged 4+ do well

- Carrying no penalty

- Finished in the first 4 last time out

- Won over 7F or 1M

- Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)

- Finished in first 5 in a group 1

- Ran in the Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time

- 3yo that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas and/or St James Palace Stakes

- From first 4 in the betting.