The Betfred Mobile Old Borough Cup is a 1M 6F class 2 handicap that takes place at Haydock on Saturday 5th September as part of the supporting card to the Betfred Sprint Cup. The race was promoted from class 3 to class 2 in 2004. In general, it pays to focus on younger less exposed horses that had put in a career best effort last time.



Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings (2004-2014):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 3-4-13

4yo: 3-11-62

5yo: 2-6-34

6yo: 1-3-25

7yo+: 1-1-19

3 year olds have won 5 of the last 12 from approximately 13% of the total runners. Strangely there was no 3yo runners in 2010, 2011 or 2013 and there was only two 3yo runners in 2012 (provided the winner) and the only 3yo runner in 2014 was 2nd.



Weights

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 3-3-21

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-8-37

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-10-66

horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-5-29

3 of 3 winners aged 3 carried 8-3 to 9-0.

6 of 7 winners aged 4+ carried 9-0 or more (exception carried 8-9)

Top weight: 05930082803U (0-3-12)



Official Ratings

horses rated 95 to 105: 7-9-48

horses rated 85 to 94: 3-14-89

horses rated 83 or lower: 0-2-16

Since race became a class 2 handicap in 2004 all 10 winners were rated 90 or higher.

All three 3yo winners were rated 95 to 101

7 of 7 winners aged 4+ were rated 90 to 101.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran at least 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in a class 2)

9 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of past 3 years in last 2 starts

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ in last 2 outings

6 of 7 winners aged 4+ had run in 8 to 14 handicaps

3 of 3 winners aged 3 had run in 3 to 6 handicaps

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was placed in Ebor on previous start & other had run just once)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F

9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher (exception had won a race in France worth 15K+, all 3 winners aged 3 had won a class 2 handicap worth 16K+)



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Educate A Child Stakes: 311 (2-1-3)

Sri Lanka Handicap winner (Satellite): 6102 (1-1-4)

William Grant & Sons Stakes winner (Notarised): 10 (1-0-2)

Old Newton Cup winner (Notarised): 3 (0-1-1)

Racing FX Colwick Handicap winner (Rhombus): 55 (0-0-2)

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Jaguar Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Ebor H'cap, finishing 44

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Summer Stakes, finishing 24

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 76



Trainers

Mark Johnston (3-3-22) has won this 4 times since 2003, 3 of his 4 winners were aged 3. Record of Mark Johnston 3yos in this since 2003: 10310301 (3-2-8).

James Fanshawe (1-1-3) saddled the winner in 2004 and a placed finisher in 2014.

Mark Prescott (0-2-3) has saddled 2 placed finishers (both 4yos) from 3 runners.

ED Dunlop (0-1-2) has saddled the runner-up twice since 2000 from 4 runners.



Racing Tactics

6 of 7 winners on good or firmer were held up in midfield or rear

All 3 winners on ground softer than good led or raced close to leaders



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 11/1 or shorter

horses prominent in the betting have done well in this with 9 of last 10 winners coming from the first 6 in the betting.

Favourites (4-5-12) have a very strong record, having won 5 of the last 12, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50 since 2004.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 to 5 (especially 3yos)

- 3yo carrying 9-0 or less or a 4 or 5yo carrying 9-0 or more

- Officially rated 95 or higher

- Ran at least 3 times in 2015

- Finished in the first 4 last time

- Posted highest RPR of 97+ in last 2 starts

- Won a race in 2015

- Run in 3 to 6 handicaps (if aged 3) or 8 to 14 handicaps (if aged 4+)

- Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F

- Previously won a class 2 or 3 race worth 10K+

- Aged 3 that finished in first 6 in London Gold Cup, Melrose and/or Jaguar Stakes

- Aged 4+ that placed in Ebor H’cap and/or Summer Stakes

- Hold up horses favoured on fast ground

- horses who race prominently favoured on softer

- Trained by Mark Johnston, James Fanshawe or Mark Prescott

- Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well).