saturday @ Doncaster - 12/9/2015

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2.00 Doncaster – At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2)

The fact that six of the last seven winners have gone off no bigger than 100/30 suggests that we should be focusing our attention on those towards the head of the market. The Group 2 Vintage Stakes looks likely to provide us with a couple of clues as it gives us the second and third horses in the betting, Ibn Malik and Palawan.

The first named made all on his racecourse debut at Newmarket back in June, staying on well in the closing stages to win with three-quarters of a length to spare. He stepped into Group 2 company at Goodwood and was ridden with more patience and despite being keen early on, he only found Galileo Gold too good on the day. That rival had the benefit of more experience on the day and you would have to think he is still improving after only two runs. He has already shown himself to be competitive at this level and with normal improvement he looks likely to be in the shake-up once again here.

Palawan finished a nose behind Ibn Malik having drifted over to the stands side rail under pressure at Goodwood. However he had four runs under his belt prior to that and although he won impressively when returning to Goodwood at the beginning of this month, I think there are more progressive runners in the line-up.

One such contender is Charlie Appleby’s EMOTIONLESS who was mightily impressive when winning on his racecourse bow at Newmarket in August. The yard’s two-year-old’s tend to come on for the run and whilst he was slowly away, he was motoring at the finish and won with three and a half lengths to spare at the line. The form of the race is also standing up well with the second, third and fifth having come out and won and he looks a smart colt in the making. The yard won this race two years ago with Outstrip and I think they could well have the winner this time around. He is short enough at 10/11 having had only one run but he rates a strong 2pts win selection.



Advice

EMOTIONLESS – 2pts win @ 10/11 (Boylesports, Coral, William Hill)



2.35 Doncaster – Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (HANDICAP RACE)

The Portland Handicap can often be one of the most competitive races of the racing calendar and this year’s renewal is no exception. Hopefully the trends will help us solve the puzzle and it is therefore little surprise that horses arriving here in form have tended to do well in recent years. In fact seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fifth on their most recent outing including five of the last six winners. There are only seven qualifiers in this year’s field in the shape of Caspian Prince, Suzi’s Connoisseur, Kimberella, B Fifty Two, Another Wise Kid, George Dryden and Gran Canaria Queen.

In terms of age, there is no doubt that the five-year-olds are the ones to follow having accounted for six winners in the last decade. A good sign for the quintet of five-year-olds in this year’s line-up (Lucky Beggar, Robot Boy, Secretinthepark, Kimberella and Pipers Note). I also feel obliged to mention the recent poor records of three-year-olds, whose last victory came courtesy of Compton Banker in 2000. Therefore the trio of Harry Hurricane, George Dryden and Indescribable will be hoping for a change of fortune this time around.

The affect of the draw and the reasons for it are subjects which are widely debated among racing circles. However, in terms of numbers there is no doubt that in this case it has paid off to be drawn high, with horses drawn 12 or above having landed seven of the last ten renewals. In a field of 22, this means that just less than half of the field are drawn on the ‘right’ side including the likes of Fast Track, Highland Acclaim and B Fifty Two.

Weight can often play an important part in races such as this one and in the main, horses with lower weights have tended to run well over the years. 9st 4lb appears to be the cut-off point as only three recent winners had carried more than that to victory. Of this year’s field that eliminates the top five as they appear on the racecard, that’s from Steps down to Ashpan Sam.

Closely linked to weight is the official rating of each horse and we can cut down the field a little more when we consider that all but the last two winners were rated between 95 and 100. Applying that to this year’s field gives us the seven horses from Suzi’s Connoisseur down to Fast Track as well as the three-year-old George Dryden.

The final factor to consider is the betting and with only two winning favourites in the last decade, this is not a race in which taking a short price is prudent. Also with three 20/1 winners in recent years it also looks like a good race to take a chance on one at a bigger price. At the time of writing B Fifty Two is the favourite at around 8/1 but with the market likely to fluctuate before the off it is best to keep an open mind.



Shortlist

KIMBERELLA – 6/6

Lucky Beggar – 5/6

Secretinthepark – 4/6



Conclusion

With all things considered, it is David Nicholls’ KIMBERELLA who comes out on top having matched all six of our trends. He won over five furlongs at York back in July and having run down the field at York and Goodwood on two occasion, he has bounced back to form of late, going close at Ripon before missing the break at Chester last time. He is drawn towards the middle in stall 14 and despite racing here off a career high mark, Michael Murphy takes a valuable 3lb off his back. He will need to improve on his latest showing to go close here but fits the perfect profile for our trends and should run well.

There aren’t many trainers with a better clutch of sprinters in training than Charlie Hills and his five-year-old Lucky Beggar also makes the shortlist having missed just one of our trends. He could finish only eighth behind Caspian Prince at York last time but having been beaten just over five lengths, I don’t think we can be too harsh on him. He has been threatening to run well all season and has been drawn favourably here in stall 19. He is starting to become dangerously handicapped on his old form and I would not be surprised to see him go close at a big price.

The final member of the shortlist is Robert Cowell’s Secretinthepark who despite running no sort of race last time, would be right up there in the betting had he come here following his Shergar Cup success. He was up in the vanguard all the way that day and held off the sustained challenge of Dutch Masterpiece to land the spoils. That was over five furlongs and I fancy that he could bounce back here. As well as the modest recent run, he also has to overcome being rated 94 just 1lb outside the desired bracket but his trainer is a master with his sprinters and I think he can run better than his 25/1 odds suggest.



Advice

KIMBERELLA – 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (general)




3.10 Doncaster – Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2)


A three-year-old may only have won this race twice in the last decade but the Classic generation look to have a very strong hand this time around and I fancy them to improve on their recent record in the race.

The four-year-old Safety Check heads the market at present and has twice won at Group 2 level over seven furlongs and a mile. Following a successful stint in Meydan, he returned to action in July in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood and having been held up towards the back of the field, he made up good late ground to finish third, beaten just a length by the winner Toormore. He should strip fitter for that run and having already proven himself at this sort of level, he looks to have a strong chance.

However the three-year-olds have a strong crop with Limato an interesting runner on his first try at seven furlongs. Unbeaten as a two-year-old, was beaten by Adaay at Haydock in May before finishing second in the inaugural Commonwealth Cup behind Muhaarar. He was reported to have taken a little time to recover after that Ascot run so has been given a break and should be come back fresher. He travels well and quickens but has been slow away on recent starts so the extra furlong should help him.

Ivawood was regarded as one of the best three-year-olds in training at the beginning of the campaign but having been placed in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas, he has lost his way in recent starts. He beat only two rivals home in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and never looked comfortable when running behind Muhaarar in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville in August. I have a sneaking suspicion that his best days are behind him but a return to his best form would see him go very close here.

But the pick of them for me looks to be HOME OF THE BRAVE who has had only seven starts and seems to be getting better with his racing. His win in Ireland last time was a career best as he made all to win by three and a half lengths from the likes of Gordon Lord Byron and Sovereign Debt. This definitely looks his best trip for now and his trainer has commented on how he is maturing mentally now and is settling a lot better in front. He led the field for most of the way in the 2,000 Guineas earlier in the year and looks a better horse than he was then. The ground should be no problem for him and given his recent record, I think 6/1 looks a generous price.



Advice

HOME OF THE BRAVE – 2pts e/w @ 6/1 (William Hill)



3.45 Doncaster – Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1)


The feature race on Saturday is the Ladbrokes St Leger and not for the first time in the race’s history, the Great Voltigeur run at York looks likely to be the best guide.

Storm The Stars came out on top that day having been placed in two renewals of the Derby as well as the Grand Prix de Paris in France. He has had plenty of racing this term but he was good at York and although he drifted across the track in the closing stages, he stuck his neck out to get the verdict by half a length. It did take a little while for the penny to drop with him but when you consider that he has raced ten times and only been out of the first three on one occasion, it would be foolish to dismiss him here. The extra two and a half furlongs are something of an unknown as although he looked like a solid stayer at York, Doncaster has found plenty of doubtful stayers out in the past. He will be primed to give his very best here which should see him hit the frame but I fancy the runner-up on the Knavesmire to turn the tables on his rival.

BONDI BEACH was having just his fourth start at York and came with a sustained effort but just couldn’t get past the winner on the day. The time before that he had stepped up to 1m6f and narrowly got the better of stablemate Order Of St George who re-opposes this afternoon. I think it is interesting that Frankie Dettori was initially booked to ride this horse before the Irish Champion Stakes was moved forward an hour. I think the extra two and a half furlongs could make the difference between him and Storm The Stars as he is proven at the trip and I think he has a little more improvement in him. Aidan O’Brien has three runners which usually suggests that he doesn’t have an outstanding candidate but I like the profile of this colt and think he is the one to beat.

I briefly mentioned his stablemate Order Of St George above and he is another who looks to have plenty going in his favour. Having been beaten by Bondi Beach in June, he has since gone out and won twice by wide margins including when beating Sea Moon by seven and a half lengths at the Curragh last time. He does prefer cut in the ground which he is not guaranteed to get on Saturday and for that reason I am happy to side with his stablemate.



Advice

BONDI BEACH – 2pts win @ 15/8 (general)




4.20 Doncaster – Napoleons Casinos And Restaurants Handicap


Alan Swinbank’s KINEMA who gave us a nice each-way return when third at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run Rhombus close in a valuable handicap at Nottingham as well as at Ripon in July. I didn’t think he really saw out the final furlong at Newmarket last time so I don’t see the drop back to 1m4f as too much of an inconvenience for him. He races here off the same mark and in a race in which several of his rivals are searching for some form, he is the slight preference.

David O’Meara’s Hit The Jackpot could be one worth siding with having stayed on in the closing stages at York last time. He was just behind Kinema at Ripon in July and racing here off a 1lb higher mark, he shouldn’t be too far away. David O’Meara has a habit of freshening his horses up for these big meetings and I don’t think this six-year-old will be too far away at the business end of the race.

I should also mention Roger Varian’s Igider who looked a horse on the up when winning over course and distance back in June. He was a ready winner that day and was raised 9lb on the back of it but he was a no show at Ascot next time, boiling over beforehand and racing keenly throughout. He has had a break presumably in an attempt to calm him down and he looks an interesting runner on his return to action.



Advice

KINEMA – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, bet365)



4.55 Doncaster – Potter Logistics 50 Glorious Years Handicap


Ayaar was probably undone by the draw at Goodwood last time but nevertheless still ran a good race to finish fifth behind the winner So Beloved. Since winning the Spring Cup at Newbury in April he has run well in most of the big handicaps without success including the Royal Hunt Cup and the Bunbury Cup. As I have indicated I think that his Goodwood run needs marking up and he should be able to give another good account here. My slight doubt that I have is that he is high enough in the handicap on a mark of 101 and that there may be more progressive rivals in the line-up.

One such performer could be Man Of Harlech who got his head in front for the second time at Ffos Las a few weeks ago. He travelled really well that day and once asked to pick up by David Probert, he soon responded quickening readily clear to win by two and a quarter lengths at the line. It looks as though it has taken him a little time to get the hang of things but he is open to further improvement and Andrew Balding has tried to negate most of his 7lb rise by utilising the 5lb claim of Rob Hornby. There looks to be more to come from this lightly-raced four-year-old and he looks a strong contender.

However, I marginally prefer the chances of PERIL who recorded his third victory from his last four starts when winning at Kempton last weekend. A former Lady Cecil-trained gelding, he is now trained by Simon Crisford who has made quite a mark in his first year with a license. He seems to enjoy coming late off a strong pace so a race like this should suit him and Paul Hanagan, who rode it last time is back on here. He was very complimentary about him afterwards saying how versatile he was in terms of ground and that a mile wouldn’t be a problem. He has only gone up 4lb for his latest success but I think there is more to come from him and he could still be a step ahead of the handicapper.


Advice

PERIL 1pt win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, bet365)



5.30 Doncaster – Harriet De-Vere Powell Nursery Handicap


The final race of the 2015 St Leger Festival at Doncaster is a tricky little nursery and we shall start compiling our shortlist with Aqua Libre who improved for her initial outing when getting off the mark at Wolverhampton in August. That was over seven furlongs and despite racing a shade keenly throughout, she had plenty left in the tank in the closing stages and was pushed out to win well. Her trainer said afterwards that they might look at a Listed race next but they obviously feel her mark is fair enough and they are looking to take advantage. She is a big scopey filly so I would have no reservations about her stepping up to a mile and she looks to hold solid claims.

The same can be said for Charlie Appleby’s Mansfield who won by six lengths at Brighton on the second start of his career at the beginning of last month. He strode clear impressively that day and the form isn’t working out too badly with the runner-up having gone out and won since. An opening mark of 85 looks stiff enough considering where his victory came but the extra furlong should be right up his street and given that he cost 130,000 guineas as a yearling, I should think he is likely to show up well on his handicap debut.

However, Barry Hills looks to have an improving colt on his hands in the shape of MIDHMAAR who didn’t get off the mark until the fourth attempt at Salisbury last time. That was his handicap debut but more importantly it was the first time that he had tried a mile and that seemed to bring about lots of improvement. He made just about all and ran on strongly to beat the useful Spongy by two and a half lengths. He doesn’t necessarily have to make the running but the penny is clearly starting to drop with him and despite a 5lb rise, I fancy him to follow up here.



Advice

MIDHMAAR 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)