The Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 4th October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 15 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava and 4 years ago the mighty Sea The Stars. This year Treve will look to become the first horse ever to win 3 back to back Arc’s.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 7-7-71

4yo: 3-8-52

5yo: 0-3-26

6yo+: 0-3-11

3yos (7-7-72) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-14-89).

3 of 6 horses aged 5+ to make the frame finished in first 2 in previous year’s Arc.



Pedigree

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2F to 11.1F.



Gender

Fillies & mares (5-5-35) have won 5 of the last 7 (including the last 4) and filling first 3 home in 2011 and the 1st & 3rd in 2014.

3yos fillies (3-3-17) have a better record than those aged 4+ (2-2-18). 5 of 6 3yos fillies to make frame had won an Oaks in Europe (France, Ireland, England or Italy).

All three 3yo female winners, Treve, Danedream & Zarkava, were multiple group 1 winners that year. 2 of 3 ran in Prix Marcel Boussac at previous year’s Arc meeting and both French-trained 3yo filly winners had won their maiden over 1M at Longchamp in September of previous year.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time (2 were beaten in Prix Vermeille and other 5th in King George)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts (2 exceptions were 4yo fillies)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ on last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days

9 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their races that season (exception won previous year's race)

7 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 exceptions were having first course start)

9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one, exception was 3rd on only group 1 start)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F

9 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 170K

9 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race (exception won previous year's race)



Arc Trials

Prix Niel winner (New Bay): 1155340040 (2-1-10)

Prix Vermielle winner (Treve): 617991 (2-0-6)

Prix Foy winner (Postponed): 78007229 (0-2-8)

2 of 4 winning (4 of last 6) 3yo colts ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 11

4 of 5 winning fillies ran in Prix Vermeille last time, finishing 1314

horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 61075032099511051 (4-1-16)

horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 11853538d746000008740 (2-3-20)

horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 748429700000205070200092092 (0-5-27)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Treve): 3301 (1-2-4)

Epsom Derby winner (Golden Horn): 501177 (2-1-6)

Irish Champion Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 1104 (2-0-4)

Prix Corrida winner (Treve): 27071 (1-1-5)

King George winner (Postponed): 41743 (1-1-5)

Grand Prix de Paris winner (Erupt): 0183468 (1-1-7)

Previous year's Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Found): 1 (1-0-1)

Prix Hocquart winner (Ampere): 1 (1-0-1)

Prix Du Lys winner (Erupt): 18 (1-0-2)

Eclipse winner (Golden Horn): 146 (1-0-3)

Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Prince Gibraltar): 80010 (1-0-5)

Irish Derby winner (Jack Hobbs): 156007 (1-0-6)

Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Treve): 220700 (0-2-6)

Prix Du Jockey winner (New Bay): 50003 (0-1-5)

Prix Francois Mathet winner (Karaktar): 00 (0-0-2)

Prix Noailles winner (Karaktar): 59d9 (0-0-3)

Dante Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 500 (0-0-3)

Yorkshire Oaks winner (Pleascach): 590 (0-0-3)

Prince Of Wales winner (Free Eagle): 706 (0-0-3)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Elm Park): 5074 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 153

2 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 11

2 of 4 winning 3yos colts ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 11

2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 11

2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix Marcel Boussac as 2yos, finishing 16

2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Prix Ganay, finishing 12

The only 3 horses to win the Prix Des Chenes & Criterium International as 2yos that went on to run in the Arc as 3yos were Bago (1st in 2004), Dalakhani (1st in 2003) & Ectot (17th in 2014).



Trainers

French Trained horses: 6-10-77

Irish-trained horses: 2-1-27

British-trained horses: 1-5-31

German-trained horses: 1-1-7

Japanese-trained horses: 0-4-13

Other: 0-0-5

Criquette Head-Maarek (2-0-2) is looking to win a third straight Arc with Treve.

Andre Fabre (2-5-19) and Alain de Royer-Dupre (1-3-14) have both gained 2 wins and multiple places in the past 12 runnings.

Jonathan Pease (0-2-2) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2004.

Aidan O’Brien (1-1-23) has only won the race once from 23 runners in the last 10 years. First strings have a record of 0-1-9.

John Oxx (1-0-1), Pieter Schiergen (1-0-2), Carlos Laffon Parias (1-0-2) & Michael Stoute (1-0-7) have trained the 4 previous winners to Treve.

John Gosden (0-1-5) trained the third in 2014.



Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners)

horses drawn in bottom half: 8-10-78

horses drawn in top half: 1-9-74

Treve (2013) has been the only horse able to win from the top half of the draw since 2005, all other winners came from stall 8 or below. In general a low draw is a big advantage in the Arc.



Running Style

9 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear

The recent trend has been towards hold up horses that have been unleashed from midfield in the straight to go and win the race. But for Orfevre surrendering his lead late on, this would be the last 10 winners coming from behind.



Price

7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Danedream at 20/1 in 2011, Solemia at 33/1 in 2012 & Treve at 11/1 in 2014 have been the 3 more surprising results in past 10 years, all 3 were female winners.

Favourites (2-6-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.71.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 3yo who won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (or were unbeaten at 2)

- 3yo filly that won an Oaks or 3yo colt that won Prix Niel and/or Epsom Derby

- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2F to 11.1F

- Won last time out in last 40 days

- Posted an RPR of 120+ in last 2 runs

- Won a group 1 race worth 170K+

- Won over 1M 4F

- Course winner (or having first run here)

- Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel, Prix Vermeille, Prix Ganay, King George and/or Judmonte Int’l

- Won the Irish Champion Stakes, Epsom Derby, Prix de Diane or Grand Prix de Paris

- Trained by Andre Fabre, Jonathan Pease, Criquette Head-Maarek or Alain de Royer-Dupre

- Drawn in bottom half of the stalls (ideally 8 or lower)

- Hold-up horses favoured.