The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 27th September and as always will be a wide open affair with around 30 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow in October.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 3-5-62

4yo: 3-11-123

5yo: 3-6-64

6yo+: 1-8-70

No strong trends on age of winners.

The last winner aged older than 6 was in 1993.



Weights

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-33

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-9-102

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-12-137

horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-5-44

horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-3

9 of 10 winners carried between 8-7 and 9-3, though that weight band has represented slightly over 64.5% of total runners in past 10 runnings.

Top Weight: 0000000000095 (0-0-13)

horses carrying a penalty: 1-7-40



Official Ratings

horses rated 103 or higher: 1-5-50

horses rated 92 to 102: 7-20-210

horses rated 91 or lower: 2-5-60

8 of last 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times that year

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (1 exception ran in a class 3 & other ran in group 2)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 96+ last time

10 of 10 winners had won or placed at class 2 or higher

9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (6 had won 2+ races that season)

7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 12K or more

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F to 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M)

10 of 10 winners had won a race with 13+ runners

6 of 6 winners aged 3 or 4 had run in 3 to 11 handicaps

4 of 4 winners aged 5 or 6 had run in 14 to 23 handicaps



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Bronze Angel): 0000 (0-0-4)

Zetland Gold Cup winner (Fire Fighting): 14 (1-1-2)

Top 4 from Zetland: 100304108 (2-2-9)

Unibet Handicap (Resonant): 10 (1-0-2)

Duke Of Lancaster's Old Yeomanry Handicap winner (Early Morning): 0504 (0-1-4)

Shergar Cup Mile winner (Halation): 0030 (0-1-4)

Potter Logistics Glorious 50 Years Handicap winner (Bronze Angel): 3500 (0-1-4)

Royal Hunt Cup winner (GM Hopkins): 00 (0-0-2)

Weatherbys Private Banking Handicap winner (Portage): 056 (0-0-3)

John Smith's Racing Stakes winner (Birdman): 000 (0-0-3)

John Smith's Cup winner (Master Carpenter): 000 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free H'cap at Newbury, finishing 230

3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 007

2 of 10 winners ran in Kalaglow H'cap, finishing 45

2 of 10 winners ran in the Zetland Gold Cup, finishing 12

2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in Unibet H'cap at Newmarket July meeting, finishing 14



Trainers

Marcus Tregoning (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2014 and also saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012.

John Gosden (2-0-11) trained back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008.

Ismail Mohammed (1-0-2) & Michael Wigham (1-0-2) have both trained the winner in past 5 years.

Jim Goldie (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners make the places.

Mark Johnston (0-2-11) has saddled 2 placed finishers since 2005.

Ed Dunlop (0-0-5), Brian Meehan (0-0-5), Michael Stoute (0-0-6), Andrew Balding (0-0-7), Richard Fahey (0-0-9) & Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-9) have struggled in this, failing to gain a single place from their combined 41 runners.



Draw

Drawn 1 to 10: 4-8-100

Drawn 11 to 20: 3-9-100

Drawn 21 or higher: 3-13-119

No strong trends on the draw of the winners.



Racing Style

7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace

All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.



Price

No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 100/1 winner in 2004 and there have been winners at 25/1 & 40/1 in past 10 years.

Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 11.00. 6 of the 7 beaten favourites were 3yos (only 1 winning 3yo favourite in last 10 years).



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or younger

- Carrying 8-7 to 9-3

- Officially rated 95 to 104

- Has run 4 to 8 times in 2015

- Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 handicap last time

- Posted highest RPR of past 12 months (of 96+) on last start

- Won a race in 2015 (ideally won more than 1)

- Has won or placed at class 2 level or above

- Won over 1M 1F to 1M 2F

- Won a race with 13+ runners

- Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury

- Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup, St James Threatre H'cap and/or Bet365.com Stakes

- 3yo that finished in first 4 in the Unibet H'cap

- Trained by John Gosden, Marcus Tregoning or Jim Goldie

- Hold up horses favoured on softer

- horse that race prominently favoured on faster ground.