saturdays selections 26/9/2015

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1.30 Newmarket – Turftrax Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Div I)


For the second week running I will be including a maiden in my selections and although most Newmarket maidens usually have a couple of smart performers in them, this looks a particularly strong race.

Saeed Bin Suroor introduces an interesting newcomer in the shape of First Victory who is a half-sister to Ihtimal and Always Smile. The yard’s two-year-olds are operating at around a 28% strike-rate in maidens this term so the filly needs respecting although some of the Godolphin two-year-olds often come on a lot for their first outing.

Another debutant which catches the eye is Henry Candy’s Nicarra who was purchased for 80,000 guineas as a yearling. She is related to a pair of Listed winners including Lady Wingshot and Bahama Mama and with the likes to La Rioja in the yard, her trainer should have a fair idea about how she will fare. The same owners had Alonsoa with Henry Candy last year who won first time before following up at Listed level and I am sure hopes will be high for this filly as well.

However, experience often counts for a lot in these sorts of races and the finish looks likely to be fought out by two horses with runs under their belt.

Aidan O’Brien sent Ballydoyle over to the July course earlier this season to good effect and he is represented by Seventh Heaven here. The filly is a half-sister to a Group1 winner in the shape of Crusade and another smart performer in Cristoforo Colombo and finished seventh on her debut at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago. She was ridden patiently and made good headway under hands and heels in the closing stages suggesting that there was more to come from her. She should step forward from that and looks likely to be in the shake-up.

However, she could have her hands full with Sir Michael Stoute’s ARISTOCRATIC who was an eye-catching third in a maiden on the July course at the end of last month. The two fillies that finished in front of her both had experience under their belt and as we know the Stoute yard are not known for their first time out winners. The returning Ryan Moore gets the leg up on her and if she finds normal improvement, I think she will be tough to beat.


Advice

ARISTOCRATIC – 1pt win @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes)





2.00 Newmarket – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)


Our first Group race action of the afternoon which has been won by the likes of Berkshire and Elm Park since being transferred to Newmarket from Ascot.

Peter Chapple-Hyam is no stranger to success at the top level and he looks to have a nice prospect on his hands in the shape of Beast Mode who finished eighth in what is historically a strong maiden at Newmarket’s July meeting. He had no trouble getting off the mark when sent up to Newcastle next time despite still showing signs of greenness, he made all to win by two and three-quarter lengths. Bought for 130,000 euros at the sales as a yearling, he looks to be heading the right way and his jockey Oisin Murphy was very complimentary after his latest win. He looks to be in deep here against two unbeaten colts but I would not be surprised to see him shape better than his 20/1 price suggests.

I have already alluded to the presence of two horses who arrive here with 100% records and reports on the gallops suggest that Foundation has been doing everything right since winning at Haydock for the second time earlier this month. Trying Listed company for the first time, he was slowly away as he had been on debut but he slowly got the hang of things before skipping clear in the closing stages to win by three lengths. There was a lot to like about that performance given the inexperience he showed and he could be anything on what he has shown so far. He has some Group 1 entries in the not too distant future in races like the Dewhurst and the Racing Post Trophy and this looks like a logical step for him.

However, the market slightly prefers the chances of Aidan O’Brien’s DEAUVILLE who is also two from two and was last seen causing something of an upset in Group 3 company. He came up against the well-touted Jim Bolger colt Sanus Per Aquam at Leopardstown and the pair pulled four and a half lengths clear of the field, with O’Brien’s colt winning by half a lengt. That was back in July so you would have to think that he has had some sort of hold-up in the meantime which has kept him off the track. I don’t think there is much between this horse and John Gosden’s colt but I just think that the Irish form has a stronger look to it and he gets the narrow nod in a tight contest.



Advice

DEAUVILLE – 1pt win @ 11/10 (Paddy Power)





2.35 Newmarket – Connolly´s Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

The fillies take centre stage in the Cheveley Park Stakes and it looks a vintage renewal of the race with three of the best fillies we have seen all taking part.

Lumiere was mightily impressive when winning on debut on the July Course earlier in the season when beating a subsequent winner by six lengths and despite being beaten next time, she didn’t lose much in defeat. She ran in the Group 2 Lowther on just her second start and was keen and a little green but still finished second behind an impressive winner on the day. There were reports prior to the Lowther that she was burning up the Middleham gallops and she clearly has plenty of ability but she should improve for the extra experience. She will need to settle in order to be seen to best effect in this company but she shouldn’t be dismissed.

The filly who beat her at York was William Haggas’ Besharah who has had plenty of racing this term and will be having her seventh start of the campaign on Saturday. A winner of her first two starts, she was third behind Acapulco at Royal Ascot before being beaten a nose in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at the July meeting. She made amends next time at Ascot before following up at York and she seems to be getting better all the time. The Haggas team continue to fire in the winners and having won this race with Rosdhu Queen in 2012, they look to have another strong contender again here.

However, I can’t help but think that the market has it the wrong way around as ILLUMINATE comes here three from three and finished in front of Besharah when last seen at Newmarket in July. Some people might think that Besharah was a little unlucky that day but the trainer of the winner believed that she had a bit in hand and I would be inclined to agree. She was mentioned in the same breath as Tiggy Wiggy who was brilliant here last year and having been freshened up I think she is the one to be with. For those of you that don’t know Richard Hughes has retired so Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle and at the prices I think she is the one to be with


Advice

ILLUMINATE – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Bet365, William Hill)





3.10 Newmarket – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)

I am afraid to disappoint anyone who was looking for me to take on the favourite in the Middle Park as I expect SHALAA to win well. Since being beaten on debut, he has improved no end and it is testament to his trainer that he missed Royal Ascot as he felt the colt wasn’t ready and it is paying dividends now. In my opinion he is the best two-year-old we have seen this season and his smooth successes in both the Richmond Stakes and the Prix Morny showed just how good he is. He has had plenty of racing but they have been well spaced apart and I wouldn’t be too concerned about him turning out again here. His jockey Frankie Dettori has made no secret of the fact that he holds this colt in the highest regard and I find it hard to see him getting beat here. Don’t get me wrong, we aren’t going to get rich backing 4/9 shots but I see him as the most likely winner of the race.

As to what will chase him home, you would have to go with Ajaya who has improved in recent months, winning at York before going down narrowly to Flying Childers winner Gutaifan in France. He made up for that by winning the Gimcrack next time, the form of which has been franked with Ribchester having won the Mill Reef last weekend. He is clearly a smart performer but Shalaa beat Gutaifan by one and three-quarter lengths in the Morny and I find it hard to see him stepping forward enough to challenge the favourite.



Advice

SHALAA – 2pts win @ 4/9 (Coral, Paddy Power)





3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cambridgeshire (HANDICAP RACE)

With thirty-five runners set to charge down the Rowley Mile tomorrow afternoon, hopefully the trends can help us narrow down the field.

One of the strongest trends is the weight one and the ceiling looks to be 9st 3lb as all but one of the last ten winners carried no more than this on their back. Of this year’s field this means that Master Carpenter, Fire Fighting, GM Hopkins, Bronze Angel and Brendan Brackan look to be up against it, although as Educate showed two years ago, it is possible. Birdman would also have missed out on this trend but Josh Doyle takes 7lb off his back on Saturday so he only has to shoulder 8st 12lb.

Closely related to weight is a horse’s official rating and the desired bracket in recent years has been between 95 and 104, which has accounted for eight of the last ten winners. When applying this to the line-up this time around we lose the top five as well as Nafaqa and Prince Gagarin as they are rated too high and another fourteen at the bottom of the weights, although the three-year-olds Third Time Lucky, Portage, and My Dream Boat all make the cut.

Quite remarkably, 30 of the last 34 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez, Supaseus and Educate being the four to miss out. It is clear that horses have to be at the very top of their game to go close here so don’t be taking a chance on a horse bouncing back to form.

In the last decade, it has also become apparent that those with a recent run under their belt have been at an advantage. Eight of the last ten winners had been off the track for no more than 45 days prior to winning here so be wary of any horse returning from a lengthy absence.

In terms of age, three and four-year-olds have been the group to follow in recent times having produced six of the last ten winners. Of the rest, there have only been two winners aged older than six since 1977 which does not bode well for seven-year-old Energia Davos and eight-year-old Ginger Jack.

With runners stretched right across the Rowley Mile the draw can often be a major factor in the outcome of the race. During the last decade, only Pipedreamer (25) and Prince Of Johanne (31) have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn higher than 24 are the ones to be opposed – namely Artful Prince, Polar Forest, Donncha, Portage, Mistiroc, Gabrial’s Kaka, Prince Gagarin, Abseil, Halation, Franklin D and Earth Drummer.

Three winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t a bad return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form as does an average winning starting price of just over 15-1. However, if you were to discount the recent 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has an even more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy.



Shortlist

THIRD TIME LUCKY – 7/7

My Dream Boat – 6/7

Portage – 6/7



Conclusion

Having applied all of the trends, we have one horse that stands out in the shape of THIRD TIME LUCKY. Richard Fahey’s three-year-old has progressed rapidly this term winning four of his last six starts and was well on top of his rivals when winning at Thirsk last time. He was heavily eased to win by three and a half lengths that day and gets in here with a 4lb penalty, so surely he is ahead of the handicapper. In terms of the trends, he ticks every box and sitting towards the bottom of the weights, he looks to have a big chance of landing another big pot for his stable.

His fellow three-year-old My Dream Boat also makes the shortlist having won well at York the last time we saw him. Having had a break he stayed on strongly that day to beat Hathal by two and a quarter lengths and the form has been franked with the runner-up landing a Listed contest last time. At around 25/1, the only trend he misses is the betting one but Prince Of Johanne won at 40/1 in 2011 so I wouldn’t let that put you off too much. He arrives here in a rich vein of form and can go well in the hands of Ryan Tate.

The final member of the shortlist is Michael Halford’s Irish raider Portage who was last seen finishing second in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Prior to that, he was seen to good effect when winning a valuable handicap at Ascot and he looks primed to run another good race here. He will have to overcome a historically tough draw from stall 28 in order to go close but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile and can’t be dismissed lightly.



Advice

THIRD TIME LUCKY – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)





4.30 Haydock – EBF “Reprocolor” Fillies´ Handicap

This fillies’ handicap may not have made the cut for terrestrial television on Saturday but whilst all eyes are likely to be on Newmarket, there could be a potentially smart prospect strutting her stuff at Haydock in the shape of LOVING THINGS. Bred by Philippa Cooper’s Normandie Stud this filly won very easily at Salisbury on her debut in May but has clearly had her problems since then, having not been seen since. The handicapper has given her a mark of 89 which I don’t think is overly harsh considering the way she won on debut and although we are taking a chance on her fitness having been off for 135 days, I fancy her to take all the beating.

Of those with more experience, Roger Varian’s Shasag won well at Brighton last time and has definitely improved for the fitting of a hood. She needs to overcome a 5lb rise in the weights but was well on top last time and go close again here.

The same can be said for Sir Michael Stoute’s Monasada who has won her last three starts and continues to creep up the handicap. This should suit her better than the all-weather track at Lingfield did and she could be the one to set the early fractions here.



Advice

LOVING THINGS – 2pts win @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)





5.05 Haydock – Beer Studio Handicap

Our final race in this week’s preview is this 1m6f handicap and the eye is drawn straight away to English Summer who represents the in-form Richard Fahey stable. The eight-year-old has enjoyed something of a resurgence of late, winning three of his last four starts. He does race off a career high mark of 93 here but he was well on top in the closing stages at Leicester and can’t be dismissed given his current run of form.

A consistent performer who must have a chance is Pearl Castle who has run well on his first two starts for the Karl Burke yard. A fifth over 1m4f at York was followed by an excellent run over course and distance in the Old Borough Cup where he was just worn down in the dying strides by Nakeeta. He has gone up 4lb on the back of that effort but should be thereabouts once again, although the drawn has been unkind to him having been allocated stall 14.

In an open race, I am going to take a chance on Philip Hobbs’ GOLDEN DOYEN who is having his first start on the flat since 2013. He was a high-class juvenile hurdler last winter for the yard, winning a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November and connections feel that he can exploit his current flat mark of 81. He is returning from a 189 day lay-off but he ran well after a year off last term so I don’t think fitness will be an issue. He has crept in at the bottom of the weights and in receipt of 12lb from the two horses I have mentioned above, I think he is the each-way bet in the race.


Advice

GOLDEN DOYEN – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)





5.35 Newmarket – Racingfx.co.uk Handicap

The final race on Saturday is a seven furlongs handicap for three-year-olds and upwards and I think Sir Michael Stoute has a good chance of book-ending the card with GRAND INQUISITOR. He looked a colt firmly on the up when winning a Sandown handicap over seven furlongs in June and although he has not been far from disgraced in two subsequent runs, his improvement has stalled slightly. Not for the first time he travelled well into the race last time before not finishing his race off and I am not surprised to see his connections drop him back in trip. He is a little less exposed than most of the rivals he faces here and I think there could be more to come from him back in trip.

Chris Wall’s consistent Mr Win should also be thereabouts having run another fine race when third at Ascot last time. He won twice on the July course during the summer and showed enough last time to suggest that he can be competitive off a mark of 100. He is versatile with regards to ground and should once again give another good account but he may just find one or two who are better handicapped at present.

I should also mention Patrick Chamings’ Scottish Glen who is in the form of his life at the age of nine and once again made a mockery of his mark of 85 at Kempton last time. He won by two and three-quarter lengths that day so a 6lb rise is not necessarily going to be enough to stop his progress. He has won his last three starts and is clearly thriving of late and can’t be ruled out given his recent form.



Advice

GRAND INQUISITOR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)