The Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 3rd October. Run over a mile for fillies and mares aged 3 or older, the race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and French-trained runners have won 4 of the last 6 renewals (with Sahpresa winning 3 in a row between 2009 & 2011).



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-8-40

4yo: 4-6-27

5yo: 1-2-14

6yo+: 1-1-2

Sahpresa & Siyouma (both French-trained) have accounted for 4 of 6 wins for older horses.

The only horse aged older than 4 to win this in past 50 years has been Sahpresa, who won 3 consecutive renewals of this aged 4, 5 & 6.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a race that season

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (exceptions had finished 3rd & 4th group 1 that season)

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1

6 of 6 winners aged 4+ had finished in first 4 in a group 1

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exception was placed in 1M group 1 Falmouth Stakes on only previous start over shorter than 1M 2F)



Other races

Previous season's winner (Integral): 116 (2-0-3)

Record of 2nd & 3rd from Falmouth: 13453631211 (4-4-11)

Dick Hern Fillies Stakes (Realtra): 2 (0-1-1)

Previous year's 1000 Guineas winner (Miss France): 76 (0-0-2)

Sceptre Stakes (Realtra): 68665 (0-0-5)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 32321

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Rothschild, finishing 423

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 181

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Sun Chariot, finishing 112

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 71

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 61

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Nell Gwyn, finishing 22

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 15

2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Oak Tree Stakes, finishing 55



Trainers

British-trained runners: 5-15-62

French-trained runners: 4-2-9

Irish-trained runners: 1-0-11

German-trained runners: 0-0-1

French trained runners have won 4 of last 6 and were not represented in 2013.

Michael Stoute (2-4-11) has saddled 2 winners & 4 places from 11 runners since 2005.

Mick Channon (1-1-4) & Barry Hills (1-1-5) have each saddled 1 win and 1 place in past 10 years.

John Gosden (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places.

Andre Fabre (0-1-3) saddled the 2nd, 3rd & 4th last year.



Price

No strong trends on the prices. 6 of 10 winners have gone off between 8/1 & 16/1 while the other 4 were all sent off shorter than 5/1.

Favourites (3-3-13) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level £1 stakes loss of £3.39.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Finished in first 4 last time & posted an RPR of 107+

- Has run in the last 45 days

- Run 4 to 7 times in 2015 (and won at least once)

- Has won a group race

- Finished in first 4 in a group 1

- Won over 7F or 8F

- Finished in first 3 in Falmouth Stakes

- 3yo that finished in first 3 in Coronation, Oak Tree, Nell Gwyn, Irish or English 1000 Guineas or

- 4yo that finished in first 4 in Duke Of Cambridge, Prix Rothschild and/or 2014 Sun Chariot

- Trained in France or by Michael Stoute.