saturdays selections 3/10/2015

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2.15 Newmarket – £300,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Fillies´ Trophy

The favourite has taken the last two renewals of this race and I would say at this stage that the market leader for this season’s contest looks likely to be Alice Springs. Aidan O’Brien’s filly was on the Rowley Mile last weekend to contest the Cheveley Park Stakes and having attracted some strong support in the market late on, she ran on well to finish fourth, beaten one and a half lengths by the winner Lumiere. She lacked the cruising speed of the main protagonists last weekend and the extra furlong this week should be in her favour. She wasn’t beaten too far in the Moyglare in Ireland earlier in the season and is clearly a smart filly without necessarily being top class. She is likely to be popular once again this week and in shallower waters, I think she is likely to play a big part in the outcome of this race.

However Sir Michael Stoute does not have too many first-time winners so you have to have a second look at ENGAGE who did just that at Doncaster in August. She was green early on but really motored once the penny had dropped and got up on the line to deny a rival with the benefit of experience. The form of the race hasn’t worked out too well but she cost quite a lot and overcame plenty of inexperience to win first time. She drops back to seven furlongs from a mile which shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience for her and with Ryan Moore claimed to ride for Coolmore, Pat Smullen gets the leg up. In terms of form she has a lot to find with the likely market leader but she looked a potentially nice filly at Doncaster and I think she could represent some value in the race.

Of the rest, Ann Duffield’s Ninetta was impressive when winning at the second time of asking and should show up well, whilst the unraced pair of Cool Silk Girl and Natural Beauty could be worth keeping an eye on.


Advice

ENGAGE – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)



2.50 Newmarket – £500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy

The returning Norfolk Stakes winner Waterloo Bridge is likely to prove popular in the market but looks short enough at around the 2/1 mark. Having had a pretty busy first part of the season, he has been off the track since Royal Ascot although it is not clear whether this was a planned or enforced absence. I have no doubt he will be fit and ready to go on Saturday but his lay-off is a concern as is him stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time. There is a school of thought that he was perhaps fortunate to win at Ascot as the leaders went too fast early on and set the race up for him. Whilst this might be the case, he saw out the five furlongs well which gives us some encouragement but we can’t be sure. This is a weaker contest than the one he won last time but at the prices I think it might be worth having a look for something to take him on.

The sales race run here a couple of weeks ago was won by Amanda Perrett’s Zhui Feng and the way he finished his race off over six furlongs suggests that the extra furlong should pose no problems for him. His jockey Tom Queally commented that the colt was still green last time so there should be more to come from him as he gains experience. He takes on a few of his rivals from last time again here and looks well placed to confirm the placings with those horses but will need to improve to get the better of Aidan O’Brien’s colt.

Hugo Palmer has once again had a fine season with his juveniles and Gifted Master impressive when winning at the first time of asking back in April. He was last seen in June when readily accounting for Tim Easterby’s Quick N Quirky at Newcastle and Pat Smullen who has been used to good effect in the past by Palmer gets the leg up here. He too has off the track a little while which is a concern but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go close.

However, I feel the 9/1 about EAST INDIES is too big to ignore and John Gosden’s colt could not have been more impressive when getting off the mark at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. He made all to win by seven lengths that day over 1m2f but he certainly isn’t short of pace so the drop back to seven should be fine. I would not be surprised to see Rob Havlin jump out in front again here and try to dictate and given the manner in which he won last time, I think he has strong each-way claims in an open race.


Advice

EAST INDIES – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)



3.00 Redcar – Totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race)

This is never a particularly straight forward puzzle to solve but we will have a go and I think the place to start is with those at the top of the weights who appear to bring the strongest form to the party.

Orvar has been a pretty consistent performer throughout this season for Richard Hannon and got his head in front in Listed company in Turkey at the beginning of the month. Looking at previous renewals his draw in stall 21 is not a disadvantage however he may find it difficult to concede weight all around here. He does set a pretty good standard and shouldn’t be too far away but he may find one or two to be too good or better weighted on the day.

The stable are also represented by Log Out Island who has been placed in Group 2 company on his last two starts. Last time he chased home Richard Fahey’s Ribchester in the Mill Reef Stakes and he probably brings better form to the table than his stablemate. He is drawn more towards the middle which leaves options open for his jockey Sean Levey and he looks a likely player for the frame.

Further down the weights, Richard Fahey’s Mayfair Lady is likely to head the market having run away with a nursery at York’s Ebor meeting in August. She was beaten subsequently at Salisbury although the ground was probably soft enough that day and this quicker surface should be more to her liking. She is a fast filly but in a 23 runner field, I think you have to be pretty confident to be taking 7/2 so I will pass over her.

Instead I will side with STILL ON TOP who finished within a length of the winner Tasleet in a similar race at York’s Ebor meeting. He has since been beaten at Ripon but I think the bigger field and the fast pace will see him to better effect here. His trainer Tim Easterby has won this race twice in the last three years and this appears to be his best hope this time around. He is also drawn in the middle and should go close at around the 10/1 mark.


Advice

STILL ON TOP – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)



3.30 Newmarket – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

The French have won this race four times in recent seasons and they have the market leader again this time around in the shape of ESOTERIQUE. She has had a fine season this term finishing second in the Queen Anne and the Prix Maurice De Gheest behind Solow and Muhaarar before winning the Prix Du Moulin in ready fashion last time. She seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and she seems to be operating at the peak of her powers now at the age of five. Her trainer Andre Fabre is one I respect a lot and any runner that he has in Britain warrants plenty of respect. She is short enough at around 11/8 but she brings the best form to the table and definitely looks the one to beat.

Her old nemesis Integral returns to action here and in the betting at least, appears to be her main danger. However following a good run in the Lockinge against the boys earlier in the year, she was very disappointing back against her own sex in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. The ground may just have been quick enough for her on that occasion but even so she was well beaten and has been off the track since then. On her very best form, I think she could win this race but I wonder whether her absence may have taken the edge off her. I am a big fan of the filly but I find it difficult to see her getting the better of her French counterpart.

Instead, it might be worth having a second look at Irish Rookie as long as the ground is no faster than good. She wasn’t beaten that far in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before finishing second to Ervedya in the French version a week later. She was also unsuited by the fast ground at Ascot in June but remains a filly with plenty of potential and looks the best of the representatives from the Classic generation.


Advice

ESOTERIQUE – 2pts win @ 11/8 (William Hill, Coral)