CESAREWITCH HANDICAP TRENDS 2015

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The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 10th October and as always will be a wide open affair with over 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Third Time Lucky two weeks ago.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-14

4yo: 3-9-100

5yo: 0-8-74

6yo: 3-6-60

7yo: 1-4-45

8yo+: 2-1-34

horses aged 3 to 5: 4-19-188

horses aged 6 or older: 6-11-139



Weights

horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-3-21

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-71

horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-11-96

horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-7-92

horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-1-44

horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-0-3

No very strong trend to be gleaned from the weights.

Top Weight: 00059041860 (1-1-11)

horses carrying a penalty (1-5-44) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 44 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011 and runners-up spot in 2012.



Official Ratings

horses rated 99 to 109: 2-7-34

horses rated 87 to 98: 8-16-178

horses rated 76 to 86: 0-7-115

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 87 to 98. That ratings bracket has also accounted for 23 of the 32 places in past 8 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last flat start (1 exception 6th in listed race)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 91+ last time

6 of 10 winners posted their highest flat RPR on last flat start

10 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year (flat or hurdles)

8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 handicap (1 exception beaten a neck in a class 2 handicap last time)

6 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 4 handicaps

9 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

7 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level

4 of 10 winners had previously won over hurdles (since 2000, 5 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)



Other Races

Boodles Diamond Handicap winner (Steve Rogers): 12 (1-1-2)

Queen Alexandra Stakes winner (Oriental Fox): 0003 (0-1-4)

John Smith's Stayers' Handicap winner (Eshtiaal): 0 (0-0-1)

Betfred Cesarewitch Trial winner (Low Key): 60 (0-0-2)

Sky Bet Supporting Yorkshire Air Ambulance Stakes winner (Big Thunder): 00 (0-0-2)

Fine Equity Stakes winner (Heartbreak City): 00000 (0-0-5)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 1080

3 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 229

3 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 270

3 of 10 winners ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in the Investec Out Of The Ordinary handicap, finishing 30



Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-1-7) has gained 2 winners and a third from his 7 runners in since 2005.

Mark Johnston (1-1-17) trained the 16/1 winner in 2004 & 66/1 winner in 2013.

Tony Martin (1-2-6) won this in 2007 and seen 3 of his other 5 runners make the first 5.

David Simcock (1-0-4) trained a 3yo, Darley Sun, to win this in 2009.

Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 7 of the 15 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Philip Hobbs X 2 & Tony Martin).

Irish-trained runners (1-4-20) have made the frame with 5 of 20 runners.



Draw

horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-16-120

horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-9-120

horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 12 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.

horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 7 of last 14 winners and filled a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners.



Price

Outsiders have been the order of the day in recent years. 5 of the last 7 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger, including winners at 50/1 in 2008 and 66/1 winners in 2012 & 2013.

Favourites (2-5-11) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a £1 level stakes profit of £1.00.



Racing Style

8 of 10 winners were held up or settled in mid division

1 of 10 winners tracked leaders

1 of 10 winners made all

This is clearly not an easy race to be up with the pace early and stay there with only 2 winners racing prominently, both came from a stall higher than 18.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or hurdles runner aged 6+

- Officially rated 87 to 98

- Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher

- Posted highest RPR last time out (posted an RPR of 91+)

- Run in 8 or fewer flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)

- Won over at least 2 miles

- Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)

- Previously contested a group or listed race

- Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap

- Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate and/or last year’s Cesarewitch

- First 5 in Ascot Stakes, Doncaster Cup, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap

- Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)

- Tends to be held up or settled in midfield

- Trained by Mark Johnston, Philip Hobbs or Tony Martin.