The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is the most prestigious juvenile race run in Great Britain. It takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 10th October on the supporting card to the Cesarewitch. Jim Bolger has dominated the race in recent years, supplying 5 of the last 9 winners despite not being represented in the past 2 renewals.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

Race for 2yos



Breeding

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner that won a race as a 2yo

10 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.1F to 11.2F

5 of 10 winners were by Galileo or a son of Galileo

5 of 10 winners were by a son of Danehill or out of a daughter of Danehill



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice

7 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions were beaten in Jean Luc Lagardere & other 4th in Champagne Stakes)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in past 50 days (last 2 exceptions not to do won the Vintage Stakes last time)

7 of 10 winners had won over 7F (3 exceptions won over 6F & finished in first 3 in a group 1 or 2 over 7F)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race (2 exceptions were 3rd in a group 1 and other was 2nd in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 1 (3 of 4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, 2 were unbeaten)

7 of 7 Irish-trained winners won their first race at Leopardstown or Curragh



Other races

National Stakes winner (Air Force Blue): 1121 (3-1-4)

Coventry Stakes winner (Buratino): 5211 (2-1-4)

Big Bad Bob EBF 2yo (C & G) Maiden winner (Air Force Blue): 1 (1-0-1)

New Forest Farm Machinery/John Deere Auction Stakes winner (Twin Sails): 1 (1-0-1)

Phoenix Stakes winner (Air Force Blue): 2 (0-1-1)

Somerville Tattersall Stakes winner (Sanus Per Aquam): 65 (0-0-2)

Champagne Stakes winner (Emotionless): 757534 (0-0-6)

5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11631

4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Futurity Stakes, finishing 1121

3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Tyros Stakes, finishing 112

3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Phoenix Stakes, finishing 583

3 of 7 winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 211

2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 36

2 of last 4 British-trained winners ran in Vintage Stakes last time, finishing 11

3 of last 6 British-trained winner ran in New Forest Farm Machinery/John Deere Auction Stakes, finishing 211 - Sal 26 Jun



Trainers

Jim Bolger (5-1-9) has a superb record, having won 5 of the last 10 runnings.

Aidan O’Brien (2-5-18) won the race twice in past 10 years, in 2009 with outsider Beethoven & in 2013 with War Command. Record of his first string is 1-4-10.

Mark Johnston (0-0-3) won the race in 2004 with Shamardal but his last 3 runners have all been unplaced.

Irish-trained runners (7-7-29) have won 7 of the last 10, Jim Bolger has accounted for 5 of those wins, O’Brien the other 2.



Price

No strong trends on prices with 6 of last 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting while the other 4 winners went off 10/1, 20/1, 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.25.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F

- By Galileo (or a son of) and/or out of a daughter by Danehill

- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out

- Ran in past 50 days (or won Vintage Stakes last time)

- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time

- Won over 7F (or finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 over 7F)

- Won a group race (or placed in a group 1)

- Finished in first 3 in Coventry, National, Tyros and/or Futurity Stakes

- Irish-trained winner that won maiden at Leopardstown or Curragh

- British-trained that won Vintage Stakes and/or New Forest Farm Machinery/John Deere Auction Stakes

- Jim Bolger runners do especially well.