my selections for 10/10/2015

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2.00 Newmarket – Dubai European Breeders´ Fund Fillies´ Nursery Handicap


We have a number of interesting fillies taking part in our opener on Saturday the first of which I would like to mention is Symposium. Having finished fourth on her debut at Newbury in August, she was a ready winner at the second time of asking at Wolverhampton. The Cheveley Park Stakes was still being mooted as a potential target following that run so connections clearly think that she is smart and could be a bit better than her current mark of 77.

Another filly who could be on the up is Andrew Balding’s Make Fast who was a ready winner on debut at Ffos Las last month. She was ridden patiently that day by David Probert and travelled well for a long way before stretching clear inside the final furlong to land the spoils. I wouldn’t have any concerns about her stepping up to seven furlongs as she is bred to get a bit further. She is the least experienced member of the field having had just the one run and although the form doesn’t look terribly strong, she remains of interest.

Sir Michael Stoute’s filly Barleysugar looks one on the up and having been beaten on her debut, she stepped forward to win eased down at Kempton next time. That performance has earned her a mark of 85 which looks high enough and I think she will need to improve on what she has done so far to defy that mark. Having said that she could have won by much further than two and a quarter lengths last time so there could be plenty under the bonnet that we haven’t seen yet.

However, I am drawn to the Charlie Appleby-trained MISE EN ROSE who beat Barleysugar when they met back in August. The Godolphin filly did have the benefit of experience that day but was worth more than the winning margin suggested and I expect that there is plenty still to come from this filly. She was beaten on her handicap debut at Pontefract last time but it is possible that she found the mile stretching her stamina. She returns to seven furlongs here and can show up well for the Appleby team.


Advice

MISE EN ROSE – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365)



2.35 Newmarket – Vision Autumn Stakes (Group 3)


We dip into the Group race action for the first time for this contest over a mile and we shall start by looking at Gifted Master who ran out a ready winner of a valuable sales race last weekend. He had been off the track since June but it didn’t seem to bother him as he made all, forging clear in the closing stages to win by four and a half lengths at the line. On official ratings he has earned this step into Group company and the mile shouldn’t be a problem judged on how well he was going at the end last week. William Buick takes over from Pat Smullen in the saddle and as long as last week’s exertions haven’t taken too much out of him, he should run well.

I have made it clear the regard in which I hold Jim Bolger in the past, so I find it interesting that he is sending over a maiden in the shape of Clear Cut for this test. An expensive purchase as a yearling, he was beaten a short-head by a well-regarded filly of Michael Halford’s on debut over six furlongs with the front two drawing well clear of the rest. There is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side which suggests that the step up to a mile could well suit him. I find it hard to see him winning this, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the frame.

In terms of a selection I am going to side with William Haggas’ SPECIAL SEASON who bolted up on debut at Sandown, winning by seven lengths at the line. He was sent off a warm favourite at Newbury next time but having travelled powerfully throughout, something got first run on him and he couldn’t peg him back. I wouldn’t be too quick to write him off based on that as the ground was soft and I think he will prefer a slightly better surface than that. I fancy him to resume his progress here with less potential for traffic problems as he looks to have quite an engine.


Advice

SPECIAL SEASON – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Boylesports)




3.10 Newmarket – Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)


This race has been billed for some time as a clash between arguably two of the best two-year-old colts in Europe in the shape of Air Force Blue and Emotionless.

To deal with them one by one, Air Force Blue has won three of his four starts with his only defeat coming in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. He has subsequently followed up with two wins at Group 1 level in the Phoenix Stakes and the National Stakes with the latter arguably his most impressive to date. Connections have said that if the ground is soft then he won’t run but that doesn’t look likely at this stage so it looks as though we are set up for a clash of the titans. On form he is clearly the standout and with Aidan O’Brien having saddled two winners of this race in the last decade, he looks to have a big chance.

However I do slightly prefer the claims of EMOTIONLESS who for all that he hasn’t shown the form of Air Force Blue, couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September. He is a horse who will be better next year but he could have been called the winner from some way out and the market support that he has attracted in the last week suggests there is a great degree of confidence behind him. This will be a new test for him and they are likely to go a stride quicker in this company but I think he is a very smart performer and he just gets my vote in what looks a great race.

I don’t see any of the others having a say in the result but one who might be worth keeping an eye on with a view to next year is Massaat. Barry Hill’s colt was narrowly beaten by the smart Cymric on debut and has since bolted up at Leicester by three and three-quarter lengths. He should be a better horse next year but has done little wrong in three starts and may be the one to chase the front two home.


Advice

EMOTIONLESS – 2pts win @ 11/8 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)




3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch (HANDICAP RACE)


Thanks to the victories of Heros Fatal, Sergeant Cecil, Leg Spinner and Aaim To Prosper, six-year-olds have performed with plenty of credit. In recent years, the victories of Detroit City, Never Can Tell and Scatter Dice have boosted the record of four-year-olds in the race which takes their total to ten winners since 1974. Historically, three-year-olds didn’t have a bad strike rate, but with only one representative this afternoon it may be best to side with those aged between four and six.

Over a distance such as this you would think a lightweight would be a huge advantage and the trends certainly do nothing to dispel this theory with 15 of the last 20 winners all carrying 9st or less. However, it is worth bearing in mind that two of the five to buck this trend came in the last seven years so those towards the top of the weights certainly can’t be dismissed on this trend alone.

When it comes to official ratings as it would seem that horses rated between 87 and 98 are the strongest candidates as horses in that bracket have won eight of the last ten renewals. Some of the main protagonists to sit outside this trend include Quick Jack (101), Low Key (86) and Bayan (84).

National Hunt trainers are starting to have a real strangle hold on the Cesarewitch having supplied four of the last ten winners. Philip Hobbs has been particularly successful having saddled both Detroit City to victory in 2006 as well as last year’s winner Big Easy. Hobbs is without a runner this year but some of those who hail from jumps yards include Grumeti, Heartbreak City, Renneti and Low Key.

Stamina is a key requirement when looking for the winner of the Cesarewitch and this is backed up by the fact that only Scatter Dice in 2013 won here having not been successful over at least two miles prior to lining up here. The 2m2f trip can really takes its toll in the closing stages and you don’t want to be taking a chance on a doubtful stayer.

Looking back over the records of past winners we see that a top 4 finish on a horses’ most recent outing is imperative with 8 of the last 10 winners meeting this trend. This would be a worry for the likes of Quick Jack, William Of Orange and Renneti but supporters of Heartbreak City, Wordiness, Steve Rogers and Low Key have nothing to fear as they all tasted success on their most recent run.

It seems perhaps strange that for a race run over a distance of more than two miles that the draw would have any significance but actually the draw is of vital importance for this race. The field make only one turn throughout the duration of the contest but that one turn comes quite early on and is also fairly sharp. The low numbers have tended to be favoured in recent years with only two winners coming from stalls higher than 20 in the last decade.

In terms of the betting, Darley Sun and Detroit City are the only two winning favourites in the last 10 years. Prior to that, Vintage Crop stormed to victory in 1992 when sent off the 5/1 favourite. Therefore, the trends suggest that the favourite should be viewed with a fair degree of skepticism and so Low Key is perhaps up against it today. Also with two 66/1 winners and a 50/1 winner in the last decade, it shows that shocks can happen in this race. With 34 runners set to go to post, there are plenty to choose from so don’t be afraid to take a chance on one at a big price.



Shortlist

HEARTBREAK CITY – 7/7

Noble Silk – 7/7

Gavlar – 7/7



Conclusion

This year’s Betfred Cesarewitch looks as competitive as ever and with all things considered Tony Martin’s HEARTBREAK CITY looks well-placed to run a big race for his connections. The five-year-old returned to the flat at Galway in July finishing third and followed that up with a smooth success at York last time. The yard won this race with Leg Spinner in 2007 who came from stall 12 which is just three stalls wider than where Heartbreak City will be coming from. He is fairly lightly-raced on the flat so should be open to further improvement and with the yard having hit the frame last twelve months ago, they look to have another strong contender on their hands this time around.

At a bigger price, Lucy Wadham’s Noble Silk also looks to have a pretty solid trends profile and arrives here on the back of a good third in the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting. He wore a visor for the first time that day which is retained and there should be more to come from him stepping back up in trip. In terms of the trends, there are very few chinks in his armour and it would be no surprise to see him go well at a big price.

The same can be said for William Knight’s Gavlar who has been in fine form this term, winning three times since the beginning of June. He turned in a good effort when fourth in the Cesarewitch Trial here a couple of weeks ago and is one of the more certain to stay the extreme trip. He will probably need to find a bit more improvement to mix it with the best of these but he is an intriguing contender at around 40/1.


Advice

HEARTBREAK CITY – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Boylesports)




4.25 Newmarket – Dubai Zetland Stakes (Listed Race)

The John Gosden yard continues to fire in the winners and they saddle a progressive colt here in the shape of Cartago. This well-bred colt didn’t get off the mark in maiden company but the switch to handicap company as well as the step up to a mile seems to have brought out the best in him. He stayed on really strongly at Yarmouth last time and should be well suited by the step up to ten furlongs for the first time. This is clearly a step up on what he has done so far but he couldn’t be in better hands and I would not be surprised to see him in the shake-up.

Another colt who has gone down the handicap route is Move Up who is now two from three in his career to date. A narrow winner at Leicester on his second start, he improved again to record a comfortable success at Ripon last time. That was over a mile and he looked to have plenty left in the tank in the closing stages so should also be suited by the step up to 1m2f. He looks the sort of horse who is going to keep on improving and he looks ready for this sort of test.

However, they may have their work cut out as Aidan O’Brien’s send over a highly-touted colt by the name of LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY. He won with more in hand than the winning margin suggested in August and was just a bit green when going down narrowly at Naas. The 260,000 guineas yearling has been described as a gorgeous big horse by Joseph O’Brien and given his stout pedigree you would have to think that the 1m2f will suit. I think it is interesting that his trainer has sent him over for this as he tends not to have runners in the race and whilst I don’t think he is towards the head of the Ballydoyle pecking order, he should have enough to get his head in front here.


Advice

LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY – 2pts win @ 2/1 (Coral)



5.00 Newmarket – Vision EBF Stallions Boadicea Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race)


Dean Ivory’s Golden Amber continued her fine run of form with a course and distance success a couple of weeks ago, getting up close home to deny John Gallagher’s Iseemist. That was the filly’s third win of the campaign and the stiff finish really seemed to suit her as she stayed on strongly to the line. She ran in Listed company on the July course earlier in the year and wasn’t disgraced finishing fourth and should be able to give a good account again here. It can pay to follow horses in form particularly at this time of year when the ground is starting to change and some horses have had long seasons and given her recent form, she can’t be left off the shortlist.

Mistrusting has looked a most progressive filly for much of this season, finding only Magical Memory too good at Leicester in Mat before recording two handicap successes in August. She was disappointing when running in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster last time but although the ground was described as good, it was probably a little slower than that. I have no doubt that she is better than she showed at Doncaster and it would be no surprise to see her bounce back to form here.

However, my selection ran in the same race at Doncaster finishing third and given her lightly raced profile I don’t think we have seen the best of her yet. TERROR won the Listed Bosra Sham Stakes over today’s course and distance last term having finishing a good fourth in the Cheveley Park behind Tiggy Wiggy. She didn’t stay a mile in both the English and German Guineas and dropped back to seven she ran much better last time. I don’t see the drop back to six furlongs being a problem and any juice in the ground would be in her favour. She seems to be coming to the boil at the right time and looks to have every chance of going close on Saturday.


Advice

TERROR – 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (Coral)



5.35 Newmarket – Darley Stakes (Group 3)


The final race on Saturday at Newmarket is over nine furlongs and at the time of writing the favourite is William Haggas’ Mutakayyef who has shown himself to be a bit tricky on more than one occasion. At Ayr last time it looked for all the world that he would win but he just didn’t seem to want to go past and connections have reached for the blinkers in a bid to get him to concentrate. I have no doubt that he is a good horse and he was second in the race last year but at the prices I feel that there are better options in the race.

One such option could be Dandy Nicholls’ Sovereign Debt who has been a model of consistency in recent months and was awarded a Group 3 in the Stewards room last weekend. He is fairly versatile over seven furlongs or a mile so it will be interesting to see how he gets on up to 1m1f. On official ratings he has every chance of going close here although he does have to concede weight to some potentially smart rivals.

With all things considered I have come down in favour of Roger Varian’s DECORATED KNIGHT who has long been highly thought of by his connections. Having been beaten over ten furlongs at Ripon in April he won his next two starts having been dropped back to a mile. He tried Group company for the first time at Newmarket a few weeks ago when he was third in the Joel Stakes and this looks an easier assignment than he faced that day. I think we will see the best of him next year but he has plenty of ability and I fancy him to run a big race for the Varian team.


Advice


DECORATED KNIGHT – 2pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power)