QEII STAKES TRENDS 2015

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The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by Qipco) takes place at Ascot this Saturday 17th October as part of Champions’ Day. A group 1 run over a mile, it has been won by some top class animals in the past 10 years, including Frankel in 2011. The winner automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Mile but 2008 winners Raven’s Pass went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic and 2009 winner Rip Van Winkle was sent off favourite for the Classic. However with the proximity of the Breeders Cup to the new date for the race will make it hard for the winner to follow up over in the States.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 7-12-39

4yo: 1-1-23

5yo: 2-0-9

6yo+: 0-2-8

3 year olds have won 7 of last 10 but have represented almost 50% of total runners.

3 of 3 winners aged 4+ had won a group 1 earlier that year and had finished in top 3 in the Queen Anne at that season’s Royal Ascot.



Gender

Fillies and mares (0-2-6) have managed 2 places from 6 runners in the period (11/4, 14/1, 7/1, 11/2, 16/1 & 9/2). The last female to win this was Milligram in 1987.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (7 won)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time (exception posted RPR of 127 on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners had run 3 or more times that season

10 of 10 winners had won a group race that year

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception had finished 2nd in 3 group 1's)

9 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (exception had finished 2nd in 1M group 1's on last 2 runs)

7 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group race as 2yo and contested a 2yo group 1



Other Races

Sussex Stakes winner (Solow): 31211 (3-2-5)

2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 125142 (2-2-6)

St James Palace winner (Gleneagles): 222184 (1-3-6)

Previous year's National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 2143 (1-2-4)

Celebration Mile winner (Kodi Bear): 1214 (2-0-4)

Prix Jacques Le Marois winner (Esoterique): 24521 (1-2-5)

Royal Lodge winner (Elm Park): 1 (1-0-1)

Prix Jean Prat winner (Territories): 1 (1-0-1)

Queen Anne Stakes winner (Solow): 1 (1-0-1)

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 222 (0-3-3)

Challenge Stakes winner (Cable Bay): 3 (0-1-1)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Elm Park): 3 (0-1-1)

Dubai Turf Stakes winner (Solow): 2 (0-1-1)

Sovereign Stakes winner (Kodi Bear): 75 (0-0-2)

Joel Stakes winner (Time Test): 08 (0-0-2)

Strensall Stakes winner (Mondialiste): 68 (0-0-2)

Diomed Stakes winner (Arod): 766 (0-0-3)

Summer Mile winner (Arod): 445 (0-0-3)

Highest placed finisher from Sussex Stakes: 53121214 (3-3-8)

Highest placed finisher from the Eclipse: 1122 (2-2-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 1211

4 of 10 winners ran in Prix du Moulin last time, finishing 1221

2 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 62

2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Jacque Le Marois, finishing 12

5 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 14415

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French 2000 Guineas, finishing 80

3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Celebration Mile last time, finishing 311

3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst as a 2yo, finishing 371

2 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 2) ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 13

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace Stakes, finishing 521

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Jean Prat, finishing 21

3 of 3 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Stakes, finishing 312

2 of 3 winners aged 4+ ran in Lockinge Stakes, finishing 22



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (3-4-15) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings and his record with his first string is 3-4-9.

Richard Hannon yard (1-2-5) saddled the winner in 2013 with Olympic Glory and 2nd & 3rd last year.

John Gosden (1-1-5) won this with Raven’s Pass in 2008.

Freddie Head (1-0-1) won this with Charm Spirit in 2014.

Brian Ellison (0-1-1) & Roger Charlton (0-1-1) have been responsible for the runner-up in past 2 renewals.

French-trained runners (1-1-9) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 9 runners in this (6 of the 9 went off 7/1 or shorter, including 2010 favourite, Makfi).



Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was Olympic Glory at 11/2 in 2013.

Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.49.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 3yo that won a group race at 2 & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas

- Or aged 4 or 5 that won a group 1 in 2015 & finished in first 3 in Queen Anne

- Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)

- Posted RPR of 117+ last time out

- Won a group race this year

- Group 1 winner

- Won over a mile

- Finished in first 3 Queen Anne, Jacques Le Marois, Lockinge and/or Sussex Stakes

- Ran in the Eclipse

- Finished in first 3 in Prix du Moulin or Celebration Mile last time

- From first 3 in the betting

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon.