OLD ROAN CHASE TRENDS 2015

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The Monet´s Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F. The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race in recent seasons.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 1-0-8

7yo: 1-3-16

8yo: 1-6-18

9yo: 2-2-17

10yo: 2-1-13

11yo+: 3-1-7

horses aged 5 to 8: 3-10-44

horses aged 9 to 12: 7-4-37

The only 2 winners aged younger than 8 had won a grade 1 chase in previous 12 months.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-8-35

horses carrying 10-13 or less: 4-6-46

8 of 10 winners (last 6) carried 10-10 or more.

Top Weight: 5124143267 (2-1-10)



Official Ratings

horses rated 154 or higher: 7-8-38

horses rated 153 or lower: 3-6-43

horses officially rated 150 or higher have won the last 9 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had been off the track for over 150 days

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (8 had run in 7 or fewer)

8 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase (1 exception was Monet's Garden in 2010, had won 2 handicap chases - this race twice before)

9 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 or 2 chase (one exception had won a listed handicap chase)

9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (exception yet to run in a graded chase)

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase in previous 12 months

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception finished close 2nd in a 2M 4F handicap chase on last run on first try over 2M 4F+)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Wishfull Thinking): 27319 (1-1-5)

Scotty Brand H'cap Chase winner (Duke Of Navan): 41 (1-0-2)

Previous year's Peterborough Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 51U (1-0-3)

Summer Plate H'cap Chase winner (Brave Spartacus): 3 (0-1-1)

Greatwood Gold Cup winner (Sound Investment): 3 (0-1-1)

Red Rum H'cap Chase winner (Surf And Turf): 5 (0-0-1)

Highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: 512411U (3-1-7)

Highest placed finisher from Melling Chase: 51424323 (1-3-8)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 1328

2 of 10 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 36

2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)

8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 2 Queen Mother, 1 JLT Novice Chase, 1 Gold Cup & 1 Grand Annual)

6 of 10 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (4 Melling chase, 1 Topham & 1 Grand National)



Trainers

Nicky Richards (3-0-4) won the race 3 times with Monet’s Garden.

Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 14 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 6 times in past 10 years.

Philip Hobbs (1-2-5) has won the race twice (2004 & 2014), both winners sent off at 14/1, and also saddled 2 more placed finishers from 6 runners since the race began.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-4) won this in 2008 and has also filled 2 more place positions.

Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-5) saddled Albertas Run to win this and Exotic Dancer to finish 2nd.



Racing Tactics

5 of the 11 previous winners led from the second fence

Five winners made almost all, while 3 others race prominently.



Price

6 of 10 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 4 went off between 8/1 & 14/1.

Favourites (2-2-12) gained 2 wins & 2 places, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £5.50.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 7 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 9 to 12 (or won a grade 1 chase in past 12 months)

- Carrying 10-10 or more

- Officially rated 150 or higher

- Having first run this season

- Posted an RPR of 154+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)

- Won over 2M 4F+

- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase in past 12 months

- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase

- Ran in a chase at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival (ideally Ryanair)

- Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time

- Trained by Philip Hobbs, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Richards

- Likes to lead or race prominently.