The grade 1 Jnwine.com Champion Chase takes place at Down Royal on Saturday, 31st October, and is the highlight of the national hunt season for the Northern Irish track. It is run over 3 miles and has been won by some very useful types since 2000, including Kauto Star in 2008 & 2010. The race was abandoned in 2005.
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2004-2014):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-1-4
7yo: 2-3-12
8yo: 3-4-18
9yo: 0-3-18
10yo: 3-1-13
11yo+: 0-2-5
All 3 winners aged 10 had finished in first 4 in a previous running (2 were previous winners)
5 of 7 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners were having their first run over fences that season (2 exceptions ran in Gowran Champion Chase)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up at only start over 3M+ and other 2 had won over 2M 6F and never tackled further)
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception won the Galway Plate on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 a grade 1 chase (exception had won 2 grade 2 chases)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 40K+
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Road To Riches): 6135 (1-1-4)
Highest placed Cheltenham Gold Cup finisher: 42U121F6 (2-2-8)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): 12F3 (1-2-4)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 1 (1-0-1)
Bobyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 16 (1-0-2)
John Durkan Chase winner (Don Cossack): 14 (1-0-2)
Lexus Chase winner (Road To Riches): 1U (1-0-2)
Holden Plant Rentals Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 31 (1-0-2)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack):
Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-0-1)
Melling Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 402F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing U27
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Betfair Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's John Durkan Chase, finishing 12
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing F2
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 12
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the King George, finishing 11
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 17
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 27
2 of 2 second season chaser winners finished in first 2 in a novice chase at Punchestown Festival
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-8) has trained 4 of the last 8 winners of this and also saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 2014.
Noel Meade (1-0-3) & Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) have won the last 2 with Road To Riches & Roi Du Mee respectively.
Henry De Bromhead (0-3-3) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 2nd in 3 renewals.
Mouse Morris (0-3-6) won this in 2001 & has seen 5 of his 7 runners since 2000 make the first 3.
Willie Mullins (0-1-4) trained Florida Pearl to win the inaugural running in 1999 but has gained just 1 place (3rd in 2014) from 7 runners since.
British-trained runners (5-2-14) have won 5 of the last 8 renewals.
Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
Roi Du Mee’s win at 12/1 in 2013 has been the only real surprise result of past 10 years.
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of last 10 runnings & show a £1 level stakes profit of £0.63.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 6 to 8 or aged 9+ & previously finished in first 4 in this race
- Having first run over fences this season (or ran in Gowran Champion Chase)
- Finished 1st or 2nd on last completed start
- Previously won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Previously won or placed in a grade 1 chase
- Won over at least 2M 6F (ideally won over 3M+)
- Ran in previous season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, Lexus, Aintree Bowl and/or Betfair Chase
- Trained in Britain & ran in previous season’s King George, Ascot and/or Melling Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Priced 7/1 or shorter.
Social Networking Bookmarks