The grade 1 Jnwine.com Champion Chase takes place at Down Royal on Saturday, 31st October, and is the highlight of the national hunt season for the Northern Irish track. It is run over 3 miles and has been won by some very useful types since 2000, including Kauto Star in 2008 & 2010. The race was abandoned in 2005.



Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2004-2014):



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-1-4

7yo: 2-3-12

8yo: 3-4-18

9yo: 0-3-18

10yo: 3-1-13

11yo+: 0-2-5

All 3 winners aged 10 had finished in first 4 in a previous running (2 were previous winners)

5 of 7 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start

7 of 10 winners were having their first run over fences that season (2 exceptions ran in Gowran Champion Chase)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up at only start over 3M+ and other 2 had won over 2M 6F and never tackled further)

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception won the Galway Plate on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 a grade 1 chase (exception had won 2 grade 2 chases)

9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 40K+



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Road To Riches): 6135 (1-1-4)

Highest placed Cheltenham Gold Cup finisher: 42U121F6 (2-2-8)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): 12F3 (1-2-4)

Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 1 (1-0-1)

Bobyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 16 (1-0-2)

John Durkan Chase winner (Don Cossack): 14 (1-0-2)

Lexus Chase winner (Road To Riches): 1U (1-0-2)

Holden Plant Rentals Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 31 (1-0-2)

Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Don Cossack):

Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-0-1)

Melling Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3 (0-1-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 402F

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 31F

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing U27

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Betfair Chase, finishing 211

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 16

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's John Durkan Chase, finishing 12

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing F2

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 12

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the King George, finishing 11

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 17

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 27

2 of 2 second season chaser winners finished in first 2 in a novice chase at Punchestown Festival



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-2-8) has trained 4 of the last 8 winners of this and also saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 2014.

Noel Meade (1-0-3) & Gordon Elliot (1-0-3) have won the last 2 with Road To Riches & Roi Du Mee respectively.

Henry De Bromhead (0-3-3) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 2nd in 3 renewals.

Mouse Morris (0-3-6) won this in 2001 & has seen 5 of his 7 runners since 2000 make the first 3.

Willie Mullins (0-1-4) trained Florida Pearl to win the inaugural running in 1999 but has gained just 1 place (3rd in 2014) from 7 runners since.

British-trained runners (5-2-14) have won 5 of the last 8 renewals.



Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter

Roi Du Mee’s win at 12/1 in 2013 has been the only real surprise result of past 10 years.

Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of last 10 runnings & show a £1 level stakes profit of £0.63.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- French bred aged 6 to 8 or aged 9+ & previously finished in first 4 in this race

- Having first run over fences this season (or ran in Gowran Champion Chase)

- Finished 1st or 2nd on last completed start

- Previously won a grade 1 or 2 chase

- Previously won or placed in a grade 1 chase

- Won over at least 2M 6F (ideally won over 3M+)

- Ran in previous season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, Lexus, Aintree Bowl and/or Betfair Chase

- Trained in Britain & ran in previous season’s King George, Ascot and/or Melling Chase

- Trained by Paul Nicholls

- Priced 7/1 or shorter.