FIXED BRUSH HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2015

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The Betfair Tap Tap Boom Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle is a grade 3 run over 2M 7F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 21st November, on the undercard of the Betfair Chase. The race will feature many of the best staying handicap hurdlers in Great Britain and younger horses, ideally French bred, higher up the ratings have done best in this race. David Pipe & Nick Williams have trained 5 of last 6 winners between them.





Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:





Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 4-7-23
6yo: 3-5-34
7yo: 3-4-37
8yo: 0-4-34
9yo: 0-5-20
10yo: 0-4-11
11yo+: 0-1-5
10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7 (10-16-94)
All 4 winners aged 5 were French bred.
horses aged 8 or older have gained no wins from 70 runners.

Breeding


French bred: 6-9-41
GB bred: 2-8-50
Irish bred: 1-9-64
USA bred: 1-0-4
German bred: 0-2-8
French bred horses have won 6 of 10 runnings, from just over 25% of total runners.

Weight


horses carrying 11-7 or more: 4-5-28
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-11-39
horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 4-10-66
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 1-1-22
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-1-12
horses carrying 11-7 or more have won 4 of 10 from 16.8% of total runners, and seen almost one third of their runners make the places.
Top weight: PP0121P4005184 (3-3-14)
horses carrying a penalty: 154 (1-1-3)

Official Ratings


horses rated 140 or higher: 6-12-58
horses rated 139 or less: 4-16-109
The last 4 winners have been rated 141 to 143.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 completed starts
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 138+ in last 2 completed starts
8 of 10 winners had run once or twice over hurdles that season


8 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles races
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles


10 of 10 winners won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles (8 of 10 had won 0 or 1)
Last 7 winners had won a hurdle 2M 3F to 2M 6F but no further
7 of 10 winners (last 5) gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
9 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase or hurdle (exception won a Cheltenham class 2 handicap hurdle on previous start)
9 of 10 winners had won a race under NH rules with 15 or more runners
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race at a left-handed track

Other Races


Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Broxbourne): P260 (0-1-4)
ApolloBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle winner (One For Harry): F (0-0-1)
Previous year's Wincanton Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Batavir): 7 (0-0-1)
Barbury Internaitoanl Supportinhg IJF Handicap Hurdle winner (Aqalim): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Pertemps Qualifier, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Hurdle, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, finishing 03
2 of 4 second season hurdler winners ran in Classic novice hurdle, finishing 13

Trainers


David Pipe (3-0-10) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners, all 3 were French bred 5yos.
Nick Williams (2-0-3) trained the winners in 2009 & 2014.
Nicky Henderson (0-4-8) and Jonjo O'Neill (0-3-8) has each trained multiple placed finishers.
Jennie Candlish (0-2-2) saddled Barafundle to be placed twice in this.
Lucinda Russell (0-1-2), Emma Lavelle (0-1-3), Nicky Richards (0-1-3), Donald McCain (0-1-4) & Paul Nicholls (0-1-6) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Irish trained runners (0-2-3) have gained 2 places from 3 runners.

Racing Tactics


4 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)
3 of 10 winners chased leaders
3 of 10 winners were held up

Price


8 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
Last 7 winners went off 10/1 or shorter and 6 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting.
The favourite (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred
- Aged 5 to 7 (French bred 5yos do particularly well)
- Carrying 11-7 or more
- Officially rated 140 or higher (ideally 141 to 143)
- Won 1 of last 2 completed starts
- Posted an RPR of 138+ last time
- Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or fewer)
- Won a hurdles race over 2M 3F to 2M 6F
- Won a class 2 or 3 hurdle (but no higher)
- Contested a class 1 hurdle
- Won a jumps race with 15 or more runners
- Won a hurdles race at a left-handed track
- Finished in first 3 in Injured Jockeys Fund, Pertemps Handicap Hurdle or Classic Novice Hurdle
- Respect front-runners
- Priced 10/1 or shorter
- Trained by David Pipe, Nick Williams, Nicky Henderson or Jonjo O'Neill.