national hunt selections for 28/11/2015
12.15 Newbury – Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Listed Race
On the face of it, this isn’t the strongest-looking Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle I’ve seen, but there are a few interesting contenders nonetheless, especially the Irish raider Colla Pier who makes the trip over for trainer Patrick Mooney. You wouldn’t expect them to be coming over for nothing and I find it difficult to see her out of the first three in her quest for some black-type, but she does have to take on a rival with very solid form and a couple of possible improvers.
Tea In Transvaal is said solid rival, and if she runs up to her best, she will be a tough nut to crack. Her form in beating Karezak and her fifth place at Cheltenham to Devilment is way above anything else on show in this field but all those performances were on ground with ‘good’ in the description. How she will fare with this very soft ground is an unknown and judging by how she’s been kept largely away from it (only raced on it four times) it is a worry.
One very unexposed mare that catches the eye is Fortunata Fashions, who finished a distant third to the useful Yala Enki on her first foray over hurdles and although the distances involved seem damning, it was very wet at Exeter that day (description changed to ‘soft’ after first race and could well have been worse). She did beat a few well-regarded types home including Walking In The Air and Boa Island. As a £55,000 purchase after a 22 length point win, you would expect a lot of improvement for that experience and she’s already proved she can deal with deep ground, so the daughter of Kayf Tara could go much better than her price suggests under Gavin Sheehan even though she may well need further in time.
Ruby Rambler is another of interest from the Lucy Wadham yard after comfortably getting off the mark over hurdles in nasty conditions at Towcester. After two promising bumper runs she did it nicely on her first start over timber seeming keen on testing conditions and should stay well, but I’m not sure she’ll be good enough over this short a trip.
This is a tricky puzzle and normally one I’d leave well alone, however looking at the market, FORTUNATA FASHIONS looks overpriced considering the useful types she was beaten by on debut, she was thrown in at the deep end and could well be worth a small wager in case she turns out to be useful.
Advice
FORTUNATA FASHIONS – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (SkyBet)
12.45 Newbury – bet365.com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
Novices’ Chases like these are always great to watch, but a nightmare to predict. However ASO from the Venetia Williams stable ticks a lot of the boxes that you’d want to see ticked in races like these – enjoys the ground, will stay further, jumped well on chasing debut and looks on an exploitable mark compared to his hurdles form. After the horse’s neck second to the smart Willow’s Saviour three weeks ago, Williams said that she would be looking for ‘a nice race where he can go one better’, and she could well have found it, despite having to give weight to all his rivals.
Full Shift is the other horse that caught my eye when looking through this race and as a 135-rated hurdler whose trainer Nicky Henderson has said that he’ll be a novice chaser to look forward to, it could pay to keep on the right side of him this season so stick him in the notebook. On this occasion however, he may need the run and the practice over fences, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he made a very good chase debut.
Evan Williams’ Laser Hawk was always going to make a chaser after a prolonged period in the pointing field and his efforts over hurdles last season, including a defeat of Beast Of Burden, were a promising rules introduction. He is likely to be a better chaser than hurdler, but it may take a few runs for him to show his best and this is a tough ask on chasing debut.
Arzal put in a nice debut effort over fences, but it was a significantly weaker race and he may not have it as easy up front this time. While he’s clearly a decent prospect, his keen-going style may not help in this probable deep ground and his jumping, which wasn’t bombproof last time, will be put under a lot more pressure.
Emma Lavelle’s Javert looks a young chaser of interest, even though his hurdles form is nowhere near competing with some of these. The switch to fences seems to have sparked him into life as he made a mockery of his opening mark at Chepstow, but this is again a much better race and he’s gone up in the weights as well, so he’ll have to put in a very good performance to follow-up.
Advice
ASO – 2pts win @ 7/2(bet365, William Hill)
1.15 Newbury – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase
With the ground now very much on the soft side at Newbury, the conditions are likely to have a big effect on the outcome of the races, so proven form on similar ground is something that I have been looking for when putting my shortlist together.
David Pipe’s La Vaticane was well backed on her return to action at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago and having looked likely to be in the frame on the run down the hill, she suffered interference before staying on again up the hill to finish sixth. Looking at her French form, where she won three times on soft or heavy ground over 2m4f it is quite possible that the combination of quicker ground and a drop back in trip probably caught her out last time and the conditions tomorrow afternoon should be more to her liking. The Pipe stable also went through something of a lull at the meeting but have started to fire since then so I would imagine that she can improve on her effort last time. I expect she will be well-backed again and I can see plenty of reasons why.
The Neil Mulholland stable is starting to forge a reputation as a shrewd operation and he saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of Si C’Etait Vrai who was formerly in the care of the late Dessie Hughes. He had some good form as a novice chaser including finishing less than two lengths behind Djakadam at Leopardstown as well as winning by twenty lengths on his last start in February 2014. He was a cheap purchase at £6,000 last year which suggests he has had his problems but his trainer recently reported in a stable tour that he was in good enough form heading into this race. Having been off the track for so long, you are obviously taking a chance on his well-being but he should like the ground and he looks one to possibly keep an eye on with a view to the future.
A couple of lesser exposed horses towards the bottom of the weights catch the eye, the first of which is Aloomomo who has won his first two starts over fences this autumn. A French recruit, he did not win over the larger obstacles in France but has shown a lot of ability this term and despite going up 14lb for his latest win, he looks a rapidly progressive five-year-old. This is clearly tougher than his last two assignments but he handled the soft ground well at Uttoxeter in October and he can’t be discounted easily.
The form of Abracadabra Sivola has also been boosted with Colin Tizzard’s Native River having come out on top in a Grade 2 on the first day of the Hennessy meeting. The three miles trip at Exeter may just have stretched his stamina so the slight drop back in trip should be in his favour. I would be slightly concerned about his jumping as he has shown a tendency to throw in a modest leap from time to time although he is fairly light on experience. Richard Johnson has been kept on the five-year-old and he might just be a bit better than his current mark of 128.
Overall, with the David Pipe team starting to fire in the winners and the ground and trip likely to suit, I have come down in favour of LA VATICANE in what looks a competitive contest.
Advice
LA VATICANE – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (General)
1.50 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Hurdle
Out of the two Nicky Henderson runners in this, Laurium looks to have the most scope for improvement over hurdles, despite the jockey bookings suggesting a different pecking order, as Ma Filleule was readily outpaced over a slightly shorter trip last time. Freddie Mitchell’s 5lb claim will help, but it seems a stiff mark on ground that he’s never encountered before and isn’t sure to appreciate.
IBIS DU RHEU has been given plenty of time by Paul Nicholls since his two runs in early 2015, both in good contests, and according to the Ditcheat trainer, ‘looks a different animal this autumn.’ With good French form on soft and very soft ground (including a half-length second to Top Notch) and being related to Saphir Du Rheu amongst others, you would expect the four-year-old to have a large amount of ability there to unlock and if he’s ready to roll on this seasonal reappearance, it seems a good opening for this expensive purchase to open his account over hurdles in this country.
Bidding to follow up a Ludlow win, Dubawi Island could go well for in-form Venetia Williams but he’ll be running off a career-high mark and could be vulnerable to some improvers, including Harry Fry’s Sir Ivan, whose second place finish behind Billy No Name was boosted when the winner finished a good second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Newbury on Friday. However, this son of Midnight Legend seems to enjoy better ground this could be too much of a test.
Advice
IBIS DU RHEU – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
2.05 Newcastle – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (MW)
This looks a really intriguing renewal of the Fighting Fifth, with the eye instantly being drawn to a couple of raiders from across the Irish Sea with notable jockey bookings. Wicklow Brave has the services of Ruby Walsh and will attempt to go a couple better than Mullins stablemate Arctic Fire, who was third in this 12 months ago. You can argue how straight the form of his third in the Morgiana Hurdle a couple of weeks ago actually is, but even given his seemingly false proximity to a below-form Faugheen, he was only a length and three quarters behind the good winner Nichols Canyon. The six-year-old has clearly improved this year, finishing third in the Irish St Leger and the Long Distance Cup at Champions Day before returning to hurdles and must hold strong claims, backed up by the strong market support he’s received over the past week.
Identity Thief is the other that jumps off the page with Bryan Cooper booked to make the trip over. This one will have to improve for Henry De Bromhead to trouble the top performers in the race, but the way he controlled the race in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal was impressive and he’s one on the up that you can’t confidently rule out.
However the in-form member of ‘the home team’, IRVING, has been the main man for me by winning twice in the last few weeks, taking the Elite Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle in good style. But the inconsistent jumping that has plagued him in the past started to creep its way back in last week and that’s a worry with some good horses in opposition, although he did master the reopposing Top Notch fairly comfortably in the end. He’s clearly a better horse this year than he was before and if those two runs haven’t taken too much out of him – jockey Nick Scholfield was adamant that they won’t have – and he jumps a little slicker, he’ll hold extremely strong claims of following up his win in this 12 months ago. Conditions, both weights and ground, are favourable and there should be a strong enough gallop on the front end to give him a nice tow into the race, he still seems a generous price.
Top Notch will undoubtedly come on for the run behind Irving last time and could go well at a price but looks to want a sterner stamina test than this. He is likely to be up with the pace to try to stretch the race out, but that could just set things up for some other rivals. Another thing to note is that only three four-year-olds have won this since 1969, the latest being Out Of The Gloom in 1985.
As the most unexposed member of the seven-strong field, Beltor is sure to draw some interest and could well be anything, but that four-year-old record is off-putting. This is also his first run of the season where all of his rivals are race fit, so he may well need this to get rid of some of his typical overenthusiasm on the way to some lofty targets later on in the year.
Advice
IRVING – 2pts win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)
2.25 Newbury – bet365 Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2)
Only five runners for the first big World Hurdle pointer of the season but it looks likely to provide plenty of clues with March in mind as the front two in the market Cole Harden and Whisper both take their chance.
We will begin by looking at Cole Harden who won on his return to action at Newbury last season before turning in three lacklustre efforts subsequently including in this race. However, a breathing operation following the Cleeve Hurdle saw him transformed and he led from pillar to post in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, getting the better of Hennessy Gold Cup favourite Saphir Du Rheu amongst others. He was beaten at Aintree the following month by Whisper but was far from disgraced and he looks likely to go well on his return to action. His breathing has once again been tweaked during the summer and a racecourse gallop last week seemed to indicate that all was well with him. My only slight reservation would be the ground because although he has won on soft and heavy ground in the past, he seemed to show his very best form on good ground last term.
Nicky Henderson enjoyed a frustrating campaign with Whisper last term as having been beaten on his chasing debut in January, he wasn’t seen again until the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. His trainer had warned that it would probably come a bit soon for him but he still ran well to finish fifth behind Cole Harden. That run put him spot on for Aintree where he was an impressive winner of the Silver Cross Stayers’ Hurdle for a second consecutive year. He should have no problems with the ground and looks the one to beat.
However, I am going to take a chance on THISTLECRACK who was good to me last season and by the end of the campaign was the champion staying novice in Britain. He doesn’t have too many miles on the clock having had just six starts over hurdles and considering how open the division is, I am not surprised that connections have decided to stay down the hurdling route for the time being. He was good enough to win over two miles at Ascot in February and although he has plenty to find on official ratings with the front two in the market, he originally caught my eye when winning in heavy ground last January. It is likely to be a tight race and I think it is worth taking a chance on him at around the 7/2 mark.
Advice
THISTLECRACK – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)
2.40 Newcastle – At The Races Rehearsal Chase Handicap (Listed Race)
Colin Tizzard has taken three of the last four renewals of this race with Hey Big Spender and although that horse isn’t back for more this year, the yard do saddle an interesting runner in the shape of Masters Hill. His last racecourse success came at Exeter in February where he got the better of subsequent bet365 Gold Cup winner Just A Par before disappointing at Cheltenham next time. There was however plenty to like about his return to action earlier this month when he finished a close second behind Paul Nicholls’ Salubrious despite conceding 7lb to that rival. The soft ground up at Newcastle should be no problem and he looks likely to play a big role in the outcome of this contest.
However, the Grade 2 December Novices’ Chase at Doncaster last season looks likely to be the major form line in this race, where VIRAK got the better of Sue Smith’s Wakanda. Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old only was third behind Coneygree before finishing third in Grade 2 company but got back to winning ways at Haydock in April. He may have been disappointing on the face of it on his return to action at Ascot but he seems to handle soft ground well and the quicker ground may just have caught him out on his first run of the season. The conditions should be more to his liking here and the 7lb claim of Harry Cobden just about negates any weight advantage that Wakanda might have had over him. Paul Nicholls used Liam Heard’s claim to good effect when winning this race with Neptune Collonges in 2006 and he looks to have another promising conditional on his hands here. That looks the standout piece of form in the race and with that run under his belt, he gets the nod.
Of those further down the weights, it will be interesting to see how The Last Samuri goes on his first start for the Kim Bailey team. He looked a thorough stayer when winning at Ayr and Kelso last term although race fitness will have to be taken for granted. There are no such concerns for Venetia Williams’ Saroque who won well on his seasonal reappearance at Exeter in November but has gone up 8lb for that success. He only has 10st 5lb on his back here and with form over 3m on soft ground, it would be no surprise to see him go close for his in-form yard.
Advice
VIRAK – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, William Hill, BetVictor)
3.00 Newbury – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)
One of the most important factors associated with the Hennessy Gold Cup is proven stamina especially given the demanding nature of the test that the seventeen runners are likely to face. Only Madison Du Berlais and Many Clouds had not previously recorded a victory over 3m or further prior to coming here. Only four of the field miss out on this basis, although two of them Fingal Bay and Fox Appeal had both won over 3m over hurdles, meaning that Splash Of Ginge and Theatre Guide have it to prove at the distance.
With seven of the last ten winners of the Hennessy taking part in their second season over fences, it is advisable to follow this group of horses. These horses tend to improve between their first and second season chasing and are often able to exploit their handicap mark at this time of year. This applies to many of those towards the head of the market with the likes of Saphir Du Rheu, The Young Master and If In Doubt all embarking on their second season over the bigger obstacles.
This also means that younger horses have tended to do well here over the years. To narrow it down, six and seven-year-olds have been the group to follow having been successful in eight of the last ten renewals, with the seven-year-olds accounting for six of those victories. Only six of this year’s field fall into the desired bracket, the quartet of seven year-olds(Splash Of Ginge, If In Doubt, Urano and Ned Stark) and the two six-year-olds in the field, Saphir Du Rheu and The Young Master.
Good recent form is also something that has stood horses in good stead over the years, in fact eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. It is probably fair to say that this is usually more a reflection of their ability than race fitness, with the likes of Trabolgan, State Of Play and Denman all having won this race on their seasonal debut. Nevertheless just over half of the field come here with the desired form credentials although the likes of Houblon Des Obeaux, If In Doubt and Ned Stark all fall at this obstacle.
Although it would be easy to think that a lower weight would be better, time has proven that may not be the case as eight of the last ten winners have carried 11st or more to victory. This is a strong trend and those falling on the right side of the divide this year are the top seven as they appear in the racecard, so from Saphir Du Rheu down to Fox Appeal.
The final factor to warrant some consideration is the strength of the betting market in recent years. Eight of the last ten winners of the Hennessy have come from the first six in the betting and therefore those towards the head of this year’s market should be favoured. There is scope to look for value in the race but with only two winning SPs greater than 10/1, it would be sensible not to look too far away from the market principals.
Shortlist
SAPHIR DU RHEU – 6/6
The Young Master – 5/6
Smad Place – 4/6
Ned Stark – 4/6
Conclusion
With Gold Cup winner Coneygree absent, SAPHIR DU RHEU carries top weight of 11st 12lb and on the trends at least he looks the standout performer in a typically competitive renewal of the race. A Grade 1 winner as a novice, he was mightily impressive when winning on his return to action at Carlisle at the beginning of the month, beating The Young Master by seven lengths. The frailties that had been present in his jumping in the past seem to have resolved themselves and he is entitled to still be improving having only had a handful of starts over the bigger obstacles. Favourites don’t have a great record in the race in recent years but he looks justified in his position at the head of the field and in terms of the trends, he looks the one to beat.
As I mentioned, The Young Master chased the favourite home on his first start of the campaign but he gets a significant pull at the weights which would suggest the pair will finish a little closer together on Saturday afternoon. The 2m4f trip was probably on the short side for Neil Mulholland’s six-year-old last time and this stamina test should show him in a better light. He does miss one trend and that is the weight one as he carries10st 10lb if you include the 3lb claim that Sam Waley-Cohen takes off his back. He is closely matched with the favourite on form and he looks likely to run him close here.
This time last year, Smad Place featured high on the shortlist for this race but could only finish fifth on his first start of the season. Once again he is towards the head of the betting but crucially he has already had a pipe-opener at Kempton, where he ran out a ready winner from another of today’s rivals Fingal Bay. Despite this being his third season over fences, he is still light on experience having had only nine races and if there is more improvement to come he could have a big say in the outcome.
The final member of the shortlist is Alan King’s other runner Ned Stark who won three times in his first season over fences, including a Grade 2 success over an extended three miles in January. He gives the impression that there is more to come from him and despite finishing only sixth last time, it was his first run of the season so he may just have needed it. He sits towards the foot of the weights and of those with little on their backs, he makes most appeal.
Advice
SAPHIR DU RHEU – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)
3.35 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Chase
The final race of the Hennessy meeting is another typically competitive for the meeting and the eye is immediately drawn to LOUGH KENT who I selected a couple of weeks ago at Cheltenham and looked to be going better than anything turning for home but a shuddering mistake at the second last put paid to his chances. That was only his third start over fences in Britain and the way he had run prior to his error suggests that his mark if 139 could be open to some improvement. He won twice on very deep ground at Auteuil in his time in France and if he can cut down the jumping errors he should be capable of winning off his current mark. There are a couple of horses who like to go fast in front so the race could set up nicely for him but he will need to jump better than last time.
One who could make the pace is Stellar Notion now in the care of Paul Nicholls who won his first two starts over fences last term before being beaten at Cheltenham twice subsequently. Although he won over 2m4f last term it is easy to see why connections have decided to drop him back to two miles given how well he travels in his races. The ground should be fine for him having won at Newcastle on heavy ground in the past, the only concern being how workable his current mark of 137 is.
John Spearing’s Pearls Legend is also likely to be ridden handily and he put up another fine effort in defeat when third at Cheltenham last time. He continues to creep up the weights without winning but he set a strong gallop last time and was the only one in the first four home to have been ridden close to the pace so his effort needs marking up a little. This is once again a tough race and although I think he will run well once again, he may just find one or two to be too good on the day.
Of the rest, Venetia Williams’ Gardefort has gone well fresh in the past and should handle the soft underfoot conditions well. The yard continues to fire in the winners and off 10st 12lb he shouldn’t be too far away. I should also mention Kerry Lee’s Grey Gold who has been cut some slack by the handicapper and races here off 1lb lower than his last winning mark. He likes soft ground and although he carries top weight, I could see him running well on his return to action.
Advice
LOUGH KENT – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power, Coral)
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