my national hunt selections for 5/12/2015

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1.20 Sandown – The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier)




Paul Nicholls has a great record at the Tingle Creek meeting and has landed three of the last seven renewals of this contest, his latest winner being high-quality hurdler/chaser Saphir Du Rheu in 2013. KELTUS has a great chance to deliver further success for his handler if ready to go first time out. He had somewhat of a mixed season last campaign, going winless over fences before being switched to the smaller obstacles. However, he is still only a five-year-old and retains great promise in both spheres. He was well-fancied at the Cheltenham Festival but looked well beaten when tipping up two out behind Irish Cavalier. Subsequently, he has been reverted back to hurdles and provided that fall hasn’t dented his confidence, he must be held in high regard. Fitness shouldn’t be an issue given he has ran his best races of the season first time out for the last two years and if he returns to the form that he showed when fourth in the 2014 Fred Winter, he will be bang there.


Box Office has been a shade disappointing since arriving from France with a lofty reputation, and a hefty price tag to boot. He was well-fancied at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals and ran with credit despite failing to set the world alight. The same can be said in each of his three runs since but he caught the eye in defeat last time and showed that the fire is still burning. His best form was on testing ground in France and this could be the first time he has had conditions resembling those he encountered across the Channel. He is not one to have maximum faith in but he is still only four and could have a great deal of improvement left in the tank.


David Pipe’s pair cannot be discounted and it will be fascinating to see how Doctor Harper fares on his return from injury. He hasn’t been seen since producing a gutsy performance to land a valuable handicap hurdle at the 2014 Aintree Festival and was touted for great things on the back of that win. He should be approached with caution though stepping back in trip as connections do view him as a three mile chaser so this may well just be a case of blowing away the cobwebs. His stablemate Taj Badalandabad was highly progressive over hurdles early last season before finding a couple of hot heavy-ground handicaps, including the Welsh Champion Hurdle, too much at that stage of his career. It is apparent that he has an engine and the slight step up in trip promises to suit given his pedigree.




Advice


KELTUS – 0.5pt e/w @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)









1.40 Aintree – Betfred Becher Chase (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)






With nine of the last ten winners aged nine or older, and only six winners younger than nine since 1992, this is not the race to be taking a chance on a younger participant. Just over half the field sit outside this desired bracket including some of the market principals Algernon Pazham, Goonyella and Unioniste amongst them.


Perhaps one of the reasons for the limited success of younger runners is that they often have limited experience over the bigger obstacles. Only three of the last ten winners had run in less than 10 chases prior to lining up here and four of today’s field also fall into this category, meaning that Vics Canvas, Thunder And Roses, Algernon Pazham and Cowards Close all look up against it here. All but the first named of this quartet miss the age trend as well so I would be happy to rule these out of contention at this stage based on the strength of both trends.


Race fitness is something that can also play a big part in this race given the 3m 2f trip and the soft ground that runners are likely to encounter. However the fact that eight of the last ten winners had had no more than one run during the current season, it is best to be aware of fresher rivals. The bottom half of the racecard for this race is littered with horses bidding to defy this trend and from Pineau De Re down, the only ones to fall on the right side of this trend are Ardkilly Witness and Financial Climate.


The weight carried can often make a difference in these staying races and it is interesting to note that only three of the last ten winners carried more than 11st to victory. This would suggest that the top six as they appear in the racecard may struggle under their heavy burdens.


Given the nature of the fences it is little surprise that good jumpers often do well in this race. In fact, last year’s winner Oscar Time was the only winner in the last decade to have fallen or unseated more than once during his career. There are two horses in this year’s field who can be eliminated on this basis and they are Saint Are and Thunder And Roses.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful trainer in this race with five victories to his name courtesy of Indian Tonic (1993), Young Hustler (1995), Earth Summit in 1998 and Hello Bud in both 2010 and 2012. He saddles Algernon Pazham this year at the age of 6.


With only one winning favourite in the last decade, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic when opposing the market leaders. An average winning SP of around 15/1 also supports this idea as well as the fact that only half of the horses sent off favourite have finished in the first four. It would therefore be wise to factor in the poor record of those towards the head of the market when narrowing down the shortlist.




Shortlist


SOLL – 6/7


Ardkilly Witness – 6/7


Financial Climate – 5/7


Conclusion




We have two runners who top our shortlist when all of the trends are applied, with marginal preference going to David Pipe’s SOLL. The ten-year-old is no stranger to Aintree having completed two Grand Nationals as well as the Topham in 2014. The only trend that he misses is due to the stable in which he lives and this sort of trip looks to be right up his street. The cheekpieces he wore last time are now replaced with blinkers for this assignment and with plenty of experience under his belt, he looks set to run a big race.


Narrowly missing out on top spot is Jamie Snowden’s Ardkilly Witness who like his rival only misses out on the full house due to his trainer not being Nigel Twiston-Davies. Otherwise he has plenty of good form to his name to suggest that this sort of test could suit him. He will need to bounce back from a poor run over hurdles on his first start for this yard but given his overall trends profile he warrants a place on the shortlist.




The list of contenders is completed by Financial Climate who races from 8lb out of the handicap on Saturday afternoon. A dual winner in the Spring, he doesn’t look too badly handicapped on those efforts and he seems to get on well with his jockey Thomas Garner. Oliver Sherwood’s gelding misses two trends due to his stable and age but other factors suggest he could outrun his sizeable odds.




Advice




SOLL – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (bet365, BetVictor)







1.55 Sandown – Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)




This is a race with a history of useful winners, including Somersby, Al Ferof, Hinterland and last year’s winner Vibrato Valtat, who will contest the Tingle Creek later on the card, and on first glance, it seems there are at a few promising chasers in this year’s renewal who could become another smart name for that list.


Paul Nicholls has won this race four times in the past seven runnings, so a good place to start would be with his five-year-old, AS DE MEE. Last seen chasing home World Hurdle winner and high-class RSA candidate More Of That at Cheltenham over two and a half miles, this will be a drop back in trip for a horse that likes to race prominently and it shouldn’t inconvenience him too much given the probable softer ground conditions and at least two runners in the field that like to get on with things up front, so there should be a decent pace on. He has excellent course form, being two from two at Sandown, including when winning the EBF Final in March off a big weight, and the right-handed track will suit him given the tendency he showed at Cheltenham to jump out that way.


Bristol De Mai has made a good start to his chasing career, being beaten seven lengths on his debut over fences by Arkle fancy Garde La Victoire, but stepping up on that when hammering Karezak in an average contest at Warwick three weeks later. Being a four-year-old, he benefits from a 6lb pull with some of the older contenders in the race and that could be generous given the style with which he took that last race, but it’s worth noting that no four year old has won this since 2008 when Araldur won for Alan King.


Despite being keen and exuberant off an almost two-year break, Willow’s Saviour managed to make a winning chasing debut, beating Venetia Williams’ Aso by a small margin. That form was franked to a degree when Aso survived a major blunder to finish second in a competitive handicap at Newbury last week and, if avoiding the bounce, you would expect Dan Skelton’s inmate to have come on for that first run in such a long time. Don’t forget, this is a horse that, despite his problems, beat Ptit Zig comfortably in the Ladbroke of 2013, so there’s obviously plenty of ability to tap into and he should be competitive.


Sizing Codelco is an interesting Irish entry for Henry De Bromhead and the booking of Barry Geraghty certainly raises the eyebrows. After a modest introduction to chasing at this time last season, including a five length second to Clarcam, he went back over hurdles and put in some useful efforts. However it’s clear that he’s seen as a long-term chasing prospect and his win at Listowel on seasonal reappearance was a good effort, jumping boldly and winning a tad snugly, there should definitely be more to come from him and he looks overpriced.




Advice




AS DE MEE 2pts win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)





2.15 Aintree – Betfred Lotto “100K Cash Giveaway” Chase (Listed Race)




A disappointing numerical turnout for this Listed contest, but in terms of quality, there’s nothing disappointing about it at all.


Grand National winner Many Clouds returns to the scene of his greatest triumph after a pipe opener at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase where he finished tailed off. Clearly that’s not his true form and on his Grade 2 win over Smad Place at Cheltenham, he’d have huge claims here if he’s come on or that outing in ground that will suit. However, the well-known curse of National winners may have something to it. After winning such an attritional, sapping contest, it’s difficult for horses to reach that level again and although he’s obviously high-class, I’ll be leaving Many Clouds well alone until he can prove he’s the same animal.


Menorah is another who disappointed somewhat in that Charlie Hall Chase, being pulled up after making a big error and giving himself too much to do, but again, that’s not a reflection of his best form, which would certainly give him a chance in this. His record in contests outside of Grade 1 level is excellent, and when you factor in his good record in small fields (1131F11 in races with 5 or less runners), he seems a tempting prospect at a big priced 12/1 (Paddy Power) if only he could iron out those shuddering errors. The ground could also be a worry as he seems best on a sound surface and he’s won’t get that here.


Receiving 5lb from Many Clouds and Menorah, DON POLI has certainly come out well at the weights and he is open to much more improvement than the aforementioned two. On the form of his RSA Chase win at last season’s festival, it would be difficult to look anywhere else, but on the disappointing effort he put in at Punchestown to close the season, he looks too short a price here. However, after his RSA win, Willie Mullins spoke of how the horse would be going down the Gold Cup route, and if he’s anywhere near good enough for a race of that magnitude, he should be winning races like this.


Southfield Theatre completes the field and will have to step up to trouble the top three in this, but the ease with which Don Poli disposed of him at Cheltenham in the RSA stands out in the memory and I find it difficult to see him contending.




Advice


DON POLI 2pts win @ 10/11 (General)







2.25 Sandown – Jumeirah Hotels and Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)




A tricky puzzle to solve, but Nicky Henderson has won this race three times in the last five years and his single entry, six-year-old Nesterenko, is reminiscent of Snake Eyes, who won the race last year for him off the same 10st 11lb that Nesterenko will carry on Saturday afternoon. A mark of 132 may be the highest he’s raced off, but it could still underestimate the horse and I’d expect a decent effort if his jumping holds up (unseated last time out).


Devilment shoulders top weight here, but he’s obviously pretty classy – sixth in the Greatwood off top weight was a good effort and you can be sure that he’ll jump and travel even off a welter-burden. He may be vulnerable to something better handicapped but I’m sure he’ll run a good race.


Paul Nicholls has two in the race, Vicenzo Mio, who could be on a good mark considering he’ll have desperately needed his last run after being off for the best part of two years. With the services of Harry Cobden claiming seven pounds, the five-year-old could well be involved if he’s come on for his reappearance, but it is Nicholls’ new stable addition Some Plan who takes not only my eye, but that of the market as well. 10th for Tom George in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle after taking the field along at a good pace and being hampered two out, there’s obviously a fair amount of ability there and a first time hood and tongue tie could help to eke it out of what could be a lenient mark of 142.


SAVELLO is another who could be very nicely handicapped over timber, especially given how well he ran when 3rd to Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham over fences. His first run of the season, and for his new yard, was a seven length fourth to subsequent Greatwood winner Old Guard. He was keen early in that race and no disrespect to Bridget Andrews, but has better assistance in the saddle with Harry Skelton now, so you would expect another step up on that run. Off a mark of just 139, 18lb lower than his chase mark, the Grand Annual winner of 2014 has to be in with a huge say here if the Skeltons have him back anywhere near his best.




Advice




SAVELLO 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Boylesports, BetVictor, bet365)







3.00 Sandown – The Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)




With the bombshell on Wednesday evening that Un De Sceaux was ruled out of the contest, this year’s Tingle Creek opened up considerably and may have left a few trainers ruing their decision to avoid the Champion Chaser-elect.


None more so than Nicky Henderson, who opted to head to Kempton for the Desert Orchid Chase with 2012 winner Sprinter Sacre. He is represented by Simonsig though who is more than capable of making his mark. The gallant grey returned from a lengthy absence at Aintree last month with an encouraging performance as he went down narrowly to stablemate Bobs Worth over the sticks. He travelled smoothly throughout and just lacked that finishing kick inside the final furlong, which was hardly a massive surprise given his time off the track. The question still remains whether he retains all of his initial promise as a chaser but it would be of little surprise to see him in the mix at the finish. (NOW A NON-RUNNER)


With Paul Nicholls’ unbelievable record in the race, it is of no surprise to see Haldon Gold Cup winner Vibrato Valtat at the head of the market. He was successful on this card last year over course and distance in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase but that did look to be a sub-par renewal and he was found out at the highest level on three separate occasions after that. There is a nagging doubt about his running style as he does tend to travel strongly in his races and is held on to until the very last minute and I believe that to be why he hasn’t quite cut the mustard against the upper echelons. Nicholls is the master of the Tingle Creek and the improving six-year-old’ previous form over the railway fences is a plus, but there are enough question marks to avoid him at likely short odds.


The percentage call is Irish raider SPECIAL TIARA who hails from the Henry De Bromhead yard that saddled 2011 Tingle Creek winner Sizing Europe. He is another that boasts course form having landed the Grade 1 Celebration Chase at the back end of last season, comfortably disposing of Sprinter Sacre by six lengths. His run at Navan in early November was a shade disappointing but he showed last year that he strips fitter for a run-out, having finished fourth in the same contest before going on to win the Desert Orchid Chase. The eight-year-old ran a blinder in the Champion Chase, leading until the last when Dodging Bullets and the re-opposing Somersby made him pay for his earlier exertions. He also has Noel Fehily back in the saddle which is a big bonus and until the defection of Simonsig it seemed odd for the highest-rated horse in the field to not even feature in the top two in the betting in an eight-runner race off of level weights.




Advice




SPECIAL TIARA – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Boylesports)









3.20 Aintree – The Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase




Despite carrying the burden of top weight, Rocky Creek must hold leading claims on his first run outside of pattern company since his days as a novice. He ran perfectly well last time out when second to an imperious Don Cossack in the Grade 1 JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal and is undoubtedly a class act. His vast experience over the National fences is a big plus but given the Grand National is his likely target again this year, winning the Grand Sefton would not be conducive as he will shoot further up the handicap.


That could leave the door open for DOUBLE ROSS who has enjoyed a resurgence in form this year with a fine second in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot before improving again to finish a close-up fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He is only 1lb higher than when finishing a good fifth in the Topham at the 2014 Aintree Festival and that experience over these fences is likely to hold him in very good stead. In recent years, he would have been weighted to the hilt with a rating of 153 (Rebel Rebellion won off 139 carrying 11st 11lb in 2013) but benefits from the inclusion of Rocky Creek and has a manageable 11st 5lb on his back; with Ryan Hatch taking off a handy additional 3lb. There are very few negatives surrounding him in a race where most others have questions to answer.


Of the remainder, Top Cat Henry would have been of more interest if he wasn’t 9lb out of the handicap while Rathlin is an interesting contender on the back of his performance in this year’s Topham. He changed hands relatively cheaply in the summer though which always raises a few doubts. Poole Master is bidding for back-to-back victories but he is still 2lb higher than last year and this looks a deeper renewal.






Advice




DOUBLE ROSS – 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)








3.35 Sandown – Betfair London National.


This looks a typically competitive staying handicap for a Saturday with a number of horses with similar form likely to fight out the finish. At the head of the weights is Paul Nicholls’ Just A Par who landed the bet365 Gold Cup over course and distance in April. His stamina really won him the race on the day as he stayed on strongly from the last but he effectively races off 11lb higher here. He tends to need his first run of the season so I wouldn’t take the form of his Cheltenham reappearance too literally but I think he looks weighted to his best here.
Neil Mulholland’s Carole’s Destrier is another who has plenty of weight on his back but ran well for a long way in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton at the beginning of November. The handicapper has cut him a bit of slack which means he races here off just a 4lb higher mark than when winning at Ascot in February. He was very impressive that day when beating an in-form rival in the shape of Clondaw Knight and the drying ground is likely to be no problem for the seven-year-old.




Towards the foot of the weights, 2013 Welsh National winner Mountainous looks to be running back into form, having run well to finish third behind Vino Griego over three miles her in November. He looks well-handicapped on his old form with his current mark some 5lb lower than what he won the Welsh National off. This race is likely to set him up for another crack at Chepstow’s showpiece but I couldn’t rule him out of running a big race this weekend.


I should also mention Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Count Guido Deiro who hasn’t had much racing but has looked a thorough stayer on more than one occasion. He attempted to exploit a workable hurdle mark last time but was collared in the last fifty yards by Molly’s A Diva. It is worth noting that his two chase wins have come on heavy ground so drying conditions would be a question mark for him. Having said that he is relatively unexposed at this sort of trip and Nigel has managed to book Sam to take the ride.


Having said all of that, I am going to go with RESTLESS HARRY who was a fine performer for Robin Dickin and is now in the care of the in-form Henry Oliver, who won on the horse six times during his riding career. The now eleven-year-old beat Teaforthree off a mark of 141 nearly two years ago and finds himself racing off a 1lb lower mark in this race. There was plenty to like about his reappearance run at Bangor a few weeks ago where he ran well for a long way before getting tired and I would expect him to step forward from that. He was fourth in the bet365 Gold Cup around here in 2014 and I fancy him to run well at around the 7/1 mark.




Advice




RESTLESS HARRY – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Boylesports)