KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2015

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Boxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and the last 11 renewals of the race have been won by shared between 4 horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star, Long Run & Silviniaco Conti.





Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:



Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)
5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 1-4-12
7yo: 4-5-24
8yo: 2-5-28
9yo: 1-3-15
10yo: 0-1-7
11+: 1-0-5
horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-9-37
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-9-55.
All 4 winners aged 8+ were previous winners (Kauto Star & Silviniaco Conti).

Breeding


French bred: 9-11-40
Irish bred: 1-5-34
GB bred: 0-2-17
German bred: 0-0-1
French-bred horses have won last 9 and have accounted for 20 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 43.5% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (4 exceptions placed)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 169+ last time


9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season


10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
6 of 10 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers (Long Run has been only 2nd season chaser to win this in past 10 years, 3 other exceptions were Kauto Star in his 5th , 6th & 8th chasing season)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (9 of 10 won 2+ grade 1 chases)
9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (exception having first course start)
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 172 or higher

Other Races


Previous year's winner (Silviniaco Conti): 111132U1 (5-2-8)
Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 14111321U1 (6-2-10)
Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): P1171121 (5-1-8)
Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: P11715112 (5-1-9)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Coneygree): 1112 (3-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Gold Cup: 14112PU1 (4-1-9)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1U (6-1-10)
Aintree Bowl winner (Silviniaco Conti): 3P251 (1-2-5)
Ascot Chase winner (Vautour): 162 (1-1-3)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Don Cossack): P13P (1-1-4)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): 15 (1-0-2)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Coneygree): 615 (1-0-3)
RSA Chase winner (Don Poli): 2 (0-1-1)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Annacotty): 426 (0-1-3)
Melling Chase winner (Don Cossack): 3PP (0-1-3)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 5 (0-0-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 7 (0-0-1)
Dipper Novice Chase winner (Ptit Zig): P4 (0-0-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Cue Card): 6P4 (0-0-3)
9 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U11231
8 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133F4
7 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 1111321
3 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing 231
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P
Last 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA the previous season
10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (7-3-16) has won 7 of last 9 renewals (Kauto Star x 5 & Silviniaco Conti x 2).
Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st between 2010 & 2012).
David Pipe (0-3-11) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-8) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-0-4) have gained just 3 wins in past 40 years Kicking King (2004 & 2005) and Florida Pearl (2001).

Racing Style


9 of 10 winners raced prominently or settled in midfield

Price


The last 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting.
All 10 winners since 2005 were sent off 9/2 or shorter.
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a £1 level stakes profit of £4.93.




Conclusion:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 or 7 (or a previous winner)
- French bred
- Has run 1 to 3 times this season
- Won or placed last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 169+)
- Won over 3M+
- Won multiple Grade 1 chases
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
- Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or
- Second season chaser that placed in 2015 Arkle or RSA Chase
- Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase last time
- Finished in first 3 in Denman Chase and/or Aintree Bowl
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- From first 3 in the betting (priced no bigger than 9/2).