my selections for SATURDAY 19/12/2015

[ganjaman2]

12.40 Ascot – The Foundation Developments Ltd Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.




A trappy-looking affair where we have more questions than answers. The Wexfordian hasn’t shown a great deal under rules since finishing second in a Stratford bumper in March 2014. However he finished runner-up on his only start in Irish points and promises to be suited by the step up in trip on offer here. He is a big rangy type who will no doubt head back over fences in time but he could well be the sort to benefit if conditions turn out to be on the softer side.


It may pay to take heed of the strongest form line on offer and Kap Jazz proved to be a handy winner of a similar contest to this at Wincanton earlier this month. Venetia Williams’ charge showed only glimpses of ability in three qualifying runs but duly obliged on his handicap debut as he stayed on well on the run-in for a length victory. His size suggests a career over fences beckons but connections have plenty of time with this five-year-old and have decided to stick to the smaller obstacles for the time being. His running style suggests a step up in trip should suit and a 5lb penalty for his latest win is fair.


However, the horse that finished a length behind him in second that day, VAROM, is of more interest. The Paul Nicholls-trained grey returned from a long break with an inauspicious display at Warwick but he showed that that had well and truly blew away the cobwebs as he finished strongly to snatch the runners-up spot. Prior to his lengthy absence, he had shown some handy form in bumpers and over hurdles and a mark of 110 may well not do him justice. Given his strong finish last time out, the step up in trip should play to his strengths and a big run is expected.


Advice


VAROM – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)





12.55 Haydock Park – The Watch Racing UK On Three Devices Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race)


With each of the sextet all holding a chance, this looks like an intriguing little contest. Sunshine Corner was an eye-catching winner last time at Lingfield as she cruised home for a comfortable victory. The front two pulled well clear but the form has been let down by the runner-up being beaten out of sight at Ludlow on Wednesday. She was found out twice at this level in bumpers and although she won on heavy ground last time out, connections have mooted that she would prefer a sounder surface.


Although James Banks can’t utilise his 3lb claim in this contest, Briery Queen is a leading contender and must be considered. She was a close-up second in a valuable Listed bumper at Sandown last season and accounted for a highly thought of Nicky Henderson inmate in fine style on her hurdles debut at Doncaster. She pulled quite hard on that occasion though and with a smaller field in opposition today, the way this pans out may not play to her strengths.


Out Of The Mist has already accounted for Mardale twice previously in bumpers and can confirm that form once again here. She was behind Briery Queen at Sandown but showed a good attitude when opening her account over hurdles at the first time of asking at Uttoxeter. She may not have won in the same fancy style as some of her rivals today but should improve for the step up in trip and is a player.


Brian Ellison’s Smart Talk has arguably the best form in the book over hurdles having landed novice events at Worcester and Sedgefield and finishing third in a hot Ascot handicap last time when well-fancied to run well. She was stretched by the trip on that occasion and will appreciate the drop in trip here but was soundly beaten by Mardale at Hexham back in October.


However, the Skelton team are most adept in this sphere and their charge YES I DID is the preferred choice in this. She finished in the frame all three starts in bumpers and opened her account over the sticks with a ready win at Southwell in November. She was a tad green but jumped soundly until a final flight blunder and looks like a very strong traveller. This was her best performance under rules and it was telling that it was on the only occasion that she encountered testing conditions as she was a winning pointer over in Ireland on soft ground. Given her winning point form, the step up in trip and likely heavy ground to contend with this afternoon should prove to be right up her street.




Advice


YES I DID – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)





1.15 Ascot – GL Events Owen Brown Graduation Chase.




Only six runners head to post for this Graduation Chase but there is plenty to ponder with varying levels of experience throughout the field.


Harry Fry’s Voix D’Eau has made a fine start over fences this autumn, winning two of his first four starts. He also ran well behind Padge at Ascot at the end of October and his subsequent handicap victory at Doncaster confirmed he was a horse firmly on the up. Having said that, this is an altogether different task to what he has faced so far and whilst he is improving, he will need to in order to get his head in front. The Fry team continue to fire in the winners and they have a knack of bringing horses on through the season so there could be more to come from him. I think he will run his race but he might just find one or two of his rivals a little classy for him on the day.


Nicky Henderson saddles an interesting newcomer in the shape of Blue Fashion who has bits of form which suggest he could be a smart recruit to the novice chasing division this year. He was second to Faugheen in the Coral Hurdle last November but only raced twice after that in the World Hurdle and at Aintree and on both occasions he was disappointing. He has always looked as though fences would bring out the best in him but he is far from the easiest to predict so you can’t be sure which Blue Fashion will turn up at Ascot tomorrow.


So with that in mind I am going to side with Gordon Elliott’s MALA BEACH who was a smart novice last term, winning well at Punchestown before finishing fourth behind Don Poli in Grade 1 company at Christmas. He was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles so has plenty of ability and any cut in the ground is likely to be in his favour. He was going well on his reappearance at Thurles before taking a crashing fall and as long as that hasn’t dented his confidence I fancy him to bounce back.


His trainer rates this seven-year-old pretty highly and it looks as though he has found a good opportunity for his horse here. Blue Fashion looks the main danger but the selection’s chasing experience at a good level means that he gets the nod.




Advice


MALA BEACH – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)





1.50 Ascot – BGC Partners Handicap Chase.




Up next is a handicap chase over an extended two miles and two furlongs and I for one am hoping that it is third time lucky for LA VATICANE. David Pipe’s six-year-old found the two miles too sharp for her at Cheltenham in November and despite running well for a long way at Newbury last time, she got quite tired suggesting that 2m 6½f was probably stretching her stamina. This intermediate trip should therefore be perfect for her having won twice over similar distances in her native France. She races here off the same mark as she did at Newbury and having shaped very well for most of the contest last time, I feel she is the one they have to beat.


There are a number of runners who could give her something to think about including Paul Nicholls’ Mon Successeur who has run some fine races this term without getting his head in front. He looked to be outstayed at Exeter last time although it is worth noting that the front pair drew well clear of the rest of the field. The combination of Sam Twiston-Davies taking over from Harry Cobden and an inflated handicap mark means that he is effectively racing off 14lb higher here and that could make life difficult for the four-year-old.


Colin Tizzard’s Ultragold also makes the shortlist as he was still travelling well when falling at Cheltenham last time. He won a handicap off a mark of 119 last season and races off just a 5lb higher mark in this contest. He could well have gone close had he stayed on his feet last time and Noel Fehily is likely to give the seven-year-old every chance.


Dartford Warbler should also be respected having run out a ready winner at Market Rasen in November although his tendency to jump left that day would be a slight concern. His yard doesn’t have too many runners at Ascot so it looks quite significant that they have decided to send the eight-year-old down for this assignment.


The final one to mention is Venetia Williams’ Marcilhac who comes here having not run since March 2014 where he was a close second behind Neil Mulholland’s Carole’s Destrier. The six-year-old won only once in his native France over fences but his stable have a fine record here and whilst today may not be the day, he could be one worth keeping an eye on as the season goes on.


Advice


LA VATICANE – 2pts win @ 9/2 (William Hill)



2.25 Ascot – The JLT Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)




Reve De Sivola goes in search of an unprecedented fourth Long Walk Hurdle in a row and must be respected for all that he doesn’t quite look the force of old nowadays. He finished a respectable sixth over in France on his seasonal debut and will likely strip fitter for that here. Ideally, he would want it to turn out very soft and he may get his wish
.
However, the plucky veteran had to play second fiddle to SAPHIR DU RHEU in the Cleeve Hurdle last year and the improving six-year-old is well-fancied to open his account back over hurdles. He had somewhat of a topsy-turvy time of it last season; starting out over fences with mixed success before reverting to hurdles to land the Cleeve and finish runner-up in the World Hurdle. He then returned to the chasing fray at the Aintree Festival with a barnstorming victory in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase and looked for all the world to be a Gold Cup contender.


Connections have decided to delay that for another year though following his gutsy fifth off of top weight in the Hennessy and he rates one of the leading lights now returned to the staying hurdling ranks.


Another of the young flag bearers in the staying division is Thistlecrack who went from strength to strength last season and eventually landed the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. He was only narrowly denied at the Punchestown Festival on his final start and regained the winning thread on his seasonal debut with a dominant display ahead of the re-opposing Deputy Dan in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury. He is on a steep upward curve and it will be fascinating to see two of the leading contenders for the World Hurdle go at it here.
Advice


SAPHIR DU RHEU – 2pts win @ 2/1 (General)



2.40 Haydock – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase.




The conditions at Haydock on Saturday are likely to make life very difficult for the runners here so the 2m 7f is going to take quite a bit of getting.


Jonjo O’Neill’s Spookydooky got off the mark at the second attempt over fences last time, getting up in the final strides at Newbury. This sort of stamina test promises to suit him well having won his point-to-point in soft/heavy ground and twice won over hurdles with cut in the ground. He is unexposed over the larger obstacles and it is interesting that his trainer has pitched him in here.


Another light on experience is O Maonlai who won at Newbury in February and acquitted himself well at the same venue last time. He was held up and ridden for a place behind Aloomomo and stayed on strongly in the closing stages to take second on the run to the line. He races here off the same mark and looks to have an each-way chance if repeating his latest effort.


However SUN CLOUD turned in a fine effort when chasing home Vieux Lion Rouge here last month and I think a repeat of that would make him tough to beat here. He has performed consistently well over the summer but the drop back to three miles seemed to bring a bit of improvement from him last time. He has only gone up 2lb for that fine effort in defeat and looks a leading player in what is likely to be a war of attrition.


Advice


SUN CLOUD – 1pt win @ 7/1 (William Hill, SkyBet)





3.00 Ascot – The Sodexo Silver Cup Handicap Chase Listed Race.




This looks like a cracking contest and a case can be made for each of the runners. Pendra has always been highly thought of by connections and showed that he may finally be fulfilling his potential when a cosy winner over course and distance at the back end of October. He travelled strongly that day and looked like the winner a long way from home so his 7lb rise in the handicap may not be enough to halt his upward curve.


Despite not quite hitting the heights he reached over hurdles, Fingal Bay has proven himself this season to be an improving chaser and a mark of 142 (11lb lower than his hurdles mark) looks incredibly lenient for a horse of his ability. He has finished behind Smad Place twice this year, latterly when fourth in the Hennessy but should find this assignment easier here.


Paul Nicholls has a trio of interesting contenders headlined by the unexposed Salubrious who is having only his third start over fences. He blossomed into a top staying hurdler before turning his attentions to chasing, a sphere in which he remains unbeaten. He had a slightly inauspicious start on his chasing debut early last season but bounced back this year with a much better display and he is open to a great deal of improvement. He looks the first string with Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate.


Unioniste most likely has his attentions set on the Grand National this campaign so this may just prove to be a stepping-stone but he is more than capable and has landed contests of this ilk in the past.


Virak would be giving weight all round if it wasn’t for the valuable 7lb claim of crack conditional Harry Cobden. He ran with great gusto in the Rehearsal Chase but a 5lb rise for that effort may just limit his chances here.He finished behind Wakanda that day who has proven to be highly progressive this season, landing similar contests at Wetherby and Newcastle. The handicapper has taken note but he is still only six and has the scope to keep on improving.


Houblon Des Obeaux has a fine record in this race having won two years ago and finishing second last year. He has been well below-par since the spring but has been dropped 6lb since his disappointing run in the Hennessy, where he was very well-backed. He is only eight but is arguably the most experienced competitor in the field and must not be taken lightly now 2lb below his last winning mark.


However, THE YOUNG MASTER ticks all of the boxes having landed last year’s renewal. He showed substantial improvement throughout last campaign, landed this contest in fine style before having his sights set a bit too high at this stage of his career in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. He ran respectably over an inadequate trip on his seasonal debut at Carlisle behind Saphir Du Rheu and had only a brief appearance in the Hennessy when unshipping Sam Waley-Cohen at the first fence. He has the services of the leading amateur again here and it seems quite remarkable that a Gold Cup-winning jockey can still claim a 3lb allowance! He was only five when landing this last year and has only gone up 6lb since that win so has to be seriously considered.


Advice


THE YOUNG MASTER – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)





3.35 Ascot – The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3)




Well as Saturday handicaps go this is as competitive a race as you are likely to see as reasonable cases can be made for about half of the 21 runners in the line-up.


The third, fourth and sixth from the Greatwood Hurdle line up here and the first placed of that trio Waxies Dargle looks well placed to run well again here. He was well backed at Cheltenham in November and had every chance at the final flight but just couldn’t pick up with the front two. The form was boosted last weekend with the winner Old Guard winning the International Hurdle and the soft ground at Ascot tomorrow should be ideal for Noel Meade’s six-year-old. He is probably high enough in the weights but the race should set up well for him and I fancy he will be thereabouts at the finish.


Willie Mullins also sends over two raiders in the shape of Renneti, who finished just behind Waxies Dargle at Cheltenham but perhaps more interestingly Noble Inn. This five-year-old has plenty of back class having beaten Clarcam in a maiden hurdle back in 2013 and having had a spell on the flat earlier this year, he made a winning return over hurdles at Clonmel in November. He won hard held that day under Ruby Walsh and races like the County Hurdle and the Boylesports Hurdle were immediately mentioned as targets. David Mullins takes a useful 3lb off his back and I slightly prefer his chances to that of his stablemate.


The course and distance William Hill Hurdle won by Nabucco also looks likely to be a good pointer with the second and third Unanimite and Jolly’s Cracked It both reopposing here. David Pipe’s four-year-old would have got closer to the winner but for a mistake at the last but I’m not sure whether the softer underfoot conditions will suit him this weekend. The third Jolly’s Cracked It has been well supported through the week and considering how well he bounced back to form last time he looks a major player, although I feel that 5/1 is short enough in a race of this nature.
He currently shares favouritism with the progressive Winner Massagot who looked a horse on the up when winning over course and distance in November. The handicapper didn’t mess about in putting him up 12lb but he could easily have won by any distance on the day. He didn’t have an awful lot of racing last year but his reappearance was certainly an improvement on his previous form and this unexposed four-year-old looks to have a progressive profile coming in here.


However, I am going to take a chance on ZARIB who won two of his first three starts over hurdles last term before running with credit in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. His trainer felt he had gone over the top by the time he ran at Aintree and having had the summer off he put in a solid display on his return when third in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. The yard won this race two years ago with Willow’s Saviour and having long described the horse as well handicapped, I think this race has been the plan for some time. It is clearly wide open and he will need a bit of luck but I think he has a good each-way chance at around the 14/1 mark.




I will also advise that you have a small each-way bet on Noble Inn at a slightly bigger price and hopefully one of them can get their heads in front.


Advice


ZARIB – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power)


Noble Inn – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Coral, BetVictor)