12.50 Kempton – William Hill Winter Festival Juvenile Hurdle.




Our opening contest has a mix of juveniles with experience over hurdles in Britain and France as well as a couple of unexposed hurdling debutants.


Of those with winning form in England, Ashoka overcame a couple of nervy moments to make a winning start for his new connections at Warwick a couple of weeks ago. He showed a good attitude to win going away at the line and having travelled well for most of the race, he might be open to further improvement as the season goes on. He only had three runs on the flat before joining the Dan Skelton team and he can certainly step forward on what we have seen so far.


Similar comments can be applied to John Ferguson’s Berland who won nicely at Catterick on his hurdling debut and was value for more than the one length winning-margin. He was keen early on that day but in a better race such as this one, I am sure connections will be hoping that he can drop his head. His jumping on the whole was pretty good apart from one error and with the yard having a couple of smart juveniles in the yard, it is interesting that they have opted to stick him in here ahead of the likes of Wolfcatcher.


The Gary Moore stable continue to enjoy a fine season and the preliminaries are likely to play a big role in how Darebin runs. He has won two of his three starts over hurdles but completely boiled over before being pulled up on his second start and I would be more than a little concerned about him here at Kempton. His trainer believes he is a smart performer but it will be important that they are able to keep a lid on him beforehand and give him a chance to showcase his abilities.


Looking at previous renewals of this race, it is clear that Paul Nicholls’ runners warrant plenty of respect having saddled three of the last four winners. The Ditcheat team are represented this time around by Favorito Buck’s who is from the family of Big Buck’s and who won his only start in France by eight lengths in September. Viewers of the Morning Line will have seen him school last weekend and whilst there wasn’t anything to take from the work he did, his trainer seemed to be quite keen on him. I imagine he will be quite popular in the market but he has a penalty for that win in France and 2m at Kempton is quite a different test to 2m2f at Auteuil in very soft ground, so I think he could be worth taking on.


The one who gets the nod is Alan King’s GIBRALFARO who won four of his last five starts on the flat in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias. He obviously hasn’t got the hurdling experience of most of his rivals but as a result he receives a weight allowance which means he gets 10lb from both Darebin and Favorito Buck’s. The King yard already have a couple of smart juveniles at their disposal in the shape of Sceau Royal and Who Dares Wins and this classy flat performer also looks likely to make his mark over obstacles. Alan King won this race in 2007 and 2009 with similar types and I fancy he could saddle another winner this time around.


Advice


GIBRALFARO – 1pt win @ 7/2 (888Sport, 32Red)







1.25 Kempton – williamhill.com Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)




I really enjoy 2m chases and I think that the pace at which the Championship races are run make them one of the more exciting races to watch throughout the jumps season. The pace at which the races are run puts a major emphasis on a horse’s ability to jump well at speed with any mistake likely to put a horse on the back foot, especially at Kempton.


Those of you who are lucky enough to have read my Cheltenham Ante-Post diary will be aware that I have a vested interest in VANITEUX having backed him for the Arkle on the back of his chasing debut at Kempton in November. For a horse making their chasing debut, he looked assured over his fences and they went a good gallop so it was a pretty good test of his jumping ability. We know he has plenty of class from his time over hurdles but has always looked like a chaser and he could be destined to go right to the top over the bigger obstacles. This looks a very good race and we are likely to find more out about him this afternoon but I think he will come through it and give his trainer Nicky Henderson a fourth win in the last six years.


His main danger looks likely to come from Gary Moore’s Ar Mad who was most impressive when winning the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown where he jumped boldly out in front and there was certainly no fluke about it on the day. Kempton provides a slightly different test to Sandown but he enjoys going right-handed and a reproduction of his Sandown run would see him go pretty close tomorrow.


He could have competition for the lead from Harry Whittington’s Arzal who made it two from two over fences at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting. That win did come in handicap company but he won well on the day under a sizeable weight and I don’t see any harm in connections trying him in Graded company as they can always drop him back into handicaps later in the year. I would be slightly concerned that he and Ar Mad cut compromise each other’s chances by going too quick and that could set the race up nicely for Vaniteux.


The field is completed by John Ferguson’s Ittirad who has done nothing wrong in two starts over fences this autumn, although this is an altogether different contest to the one he won at Newton Abbot in October. The same could be said for The Saint James who ran at Bangor last time although he did come a close second to Nicky Henderson’s Vyta Du Roc. He gets an allowance as a four-year-old but I think he will end up over 2m4f in time and this test could prove a bit sharp for him.




Advice




VANITEUX – 2pts win @ 10/11 (Coral, Bet365)





1.45 Leopardstown – The Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)




This looks to be a superb renewal with the entire field looking decent prospects on paper. Tombstone created a great impression when opening his account over hurdles with a dominant display. He was a tad keen early on but settled nicely into the race and looked like the winner from a long way out. He cruised into the lead approaching the last and drew clear in good fashion on the run-in. He is a big chestnut with his future likely to be over fences and the drop in trip here may not be to his advantage. Nevertheless, he does look to be the Gigginstown first string and must be taken seriously.




Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Falcon Crest which speaks volumes in this. The five-year-old trounced the opposition in a Grade 2 at Navan last month and shouldn’t be inconvenienced reverting back to two miles here. However, that possibly wasn’t the strongest event of its kind and he does need to step up again to make his presence felt.


Another that enters the reckoning is Jessica Harrington’s Woodland Opera who is unbeaten in two starts. He stayed on well to deny Coney Island, a wide-margin winner at Leopardstown yesterday, at Navan in November and although he is another who will blossom over the larger obstacles, he has done very little wrong so far and can’t be discounted lightly.


Surprisingly, Willie Mullins has a distinctly average record in this race over the years, although he did win it with a certain Hurricane Fly back in 2008. He saddles four of the ten runners but with Cork scorer Bleu Et Rouge and the unbeaten Petit Mouchoir being overlooked by their retained riders, that leaves LONG DOG and BACHASSON to fight it out.


The pair clashed in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse last month with the former narrowly coming out on top by a neck. Ruby Walsh was aboard the winner that day and has once again sided with Rich Ricci’s charge here. The runner-up mounted a sustained challenge as the pair crossed the line together. Both horses have enjoyed fruitful summer campaigns but the latter is still to be tested on really stamina-sapping ground which just tips the balance in the favour of Walsh’s mount.


Advice




LONG DOG – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Paddy Power)





2.00 Kempton Park – The williamhill.com Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2)






On the back of his scintillating victory in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November, it is difficult to get away from SPRINTER SACRE. It was the first time that he showed anything like his form of old, travelling strongly and jumping impeccably throughout. Although he may have bad memories of this race having been pulled-up early on on his comeback run two years ago, he finally looks to be heading back in the right direction and should improve on Nicky Henderson’s fine recent record in the contest (won twice in the last five years).


The Tingle Creek offers the best clues of the remainder with the first, third and fourth all lining up here. Sire De Grugy is another that bounced back to form last time out as he landed the Sandown Grade 1, albeit in controversial circumstances. Despite eventually prevailing, his jumping flattered to deceive for much of the contest and it possibly wasn’t the strongest renewal. He has been penalised for that and may struggle to give weight away now he is past his best.


Vibrato Valtat was well beaten in third that day but he had accounted for Gary Moore’s charge in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter and landed the novice event on this card last year. He threatened to be a top two mile chaser last season but didn’t really kick on at the highest level and the 4lb he gains from the top two in the betting may not be enough to see him to best effect.


Old-stager Somersby benefits most from the conditions and is potentially well-in. However, although he ran one of the best races of his career when finishing second to Dodging Bullets in last season’s Champion Chase, he hasn’t won a race for over two years now and it looks likely that he will have to play a supporting role once again.


Advice




SPRINTER SACRE – 3pts win @ 8/13 (Paddy Power)







2.35 Kempton Park – The William Hill Handicap Chase.






This is a most competitive renewal where most have a chance as well as questions to answer. Ballyheigue Bay arrives here in fine form having finished a close-up third in the London National at Sandown last time out. He led for the majority of the contest only to be passed by a couple of classy rivals after the last. That was a most pleasing seasonal debut and as long as that slog hasn’t take too much out of him, he must have a role to play here if dictating the pace. The drop in trip will play into his hands and he seems to have ironed out the jumping frailties that plagued him in his early days in Irish points. He could be a value option from a smaller yard and has one of the strongest and most underrated jockeys in the plate in Tom Cannon.


However, the selection is THE LAST SAMURI on the back of his good third in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his debut for Kim Bailey. The form of that race has been boosted significantly with the front two since filling the same places in the Sodexo Silver Cup at Ascot this month. He was well-fancied that day and may just have been found wanting for a bit of race-sharpness but will undoubtedly strip fitter for that here. He is relatively low-mileage having had only six starts over fences and is of great interest.


Last year’s 1-2 come back for another crack at the race with eventual winner Ballinvarrig only 1lb higher than for that success last year. He has been well below form since that victory although should have benefitted from his seasonal debut at Ascot last month. Shangani was only denied by a short head and races today off the same mark. He looked well beaten when unshipping Aidan Coleman at Newbury last time out but cannot be discounted with his handler Venetia Williams being expert with these types.


Of the remainder, Foxbridge could well benefit from a featherweight with talented conditional Jamie Bargary taking 5lb off his back. He racked up a hat-trick of wins last campaign and ran a solid race to finish fifth in the Midlands National. Following an eye-catching opening effort in second at Cheltenham, he must be taken seriously. A leap of faith is required with Ned Stark following a couple of lacklustre efforts. Granted, they were in stronger contests than this, but he hasn’t threatened to get involved yet this season. I still think there is a big race in him but I would have liked to have seen some encouragement leading into this.




Advice




THE LAST SAMURI – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)





2.55 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Chase (Handicap)






Well there is plenty to get our teeth into in this race with 28 runners set to go to post and a mix of improving youngsters and old stagers who tend appear time after time in these sorts of races.


Looking through the card I think it might be best to stick with the younger more progressive runners and the first one to mention is GILGAMBOA who is dropped into handicap company and carries top weight. I fancied him to run well in the John Durkan last time and there was a lot to like about that run for all that he was outclassed on the day by the winner Djakadam.


I don’t think three miles here will be any problem for him and although Barry Geraghty appears to favour Minella Foru he gets the assistance of Jack Kennedy in the saddle who takes a valuable 5lb off his back. Looking through the field most of these are handicap regulars and although he is the market leader, I feel that he is justified in that position having won a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in April. He is available at 8/1 and I think that offers a good opportunity considering his class for all that he will need a bit of luck in running.


Tony Martin is always a man to keep a close eye on when it comes to handicaps especially this race which he has won twice in the last decade. He has a few runners in this year’s renewal but the pick of them looks to be Heathfield who won two valuable chases last Spring. It is interesting that he was given a spin over hurdles at the end of November presumably to put him spot on for this and he gets over a stone in weight from the main selection. Mark Walsh gets the leg up on him and as we saw last year he is not short of talent in the riding department so expect to see this eight-year-old on the premises at the business end of the race.


I could mention another ten horses but a couple at bigger prices which catch the eye include Henry De Bromhead’s Grand Jesture who was well-fancied for the bet365 Gold Cup but refused to race at Sandown. Prior to that he had chased home The Druid’s Nephew at Cheltenham and races here off a 2lb higher mark. Clearly his behaviour at the start is a major concern but he wears blinkers for the first time and in terms of handicapping I still think there is more to come from this seven-year-old.


Gordon Elliott also has a battalion of runners but I like the chances of Captain Von Trappe who looked a pretty smart chaser in the early part of this autumn when winning at Galway in October. He wasn’t beaten far at Punchestown next time in Grade 2 company over 2m6f but was well beaten when dropped back in trip last time.


That was in Grade 1 company and having hung left-handed last time, he may just be better suited to Leopardstown. The trip should be fine for him and with Bryan Cooper in the saddle, I think he could outrun his sizeable odds of 20/1.


The final one to mention is Michael Hourigan’s The Job Is Right whose form over fences tailed off in late Spring but prior to that he had fallen when likely to be second in the Thyestes Chase and was a good third in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival, where he probably just didn’t get home. Having turned in some modest displays after that, he was switched to hurdles, winning at Galway in October before running well at Cheltenham in November. Those two runs over smaller obstacles may have sweetened him up and if they have the desired effect he is far from badly handicapped.




Advice




GILGAMBOA – 1pt win @ 10/1 (SkyBet)


Captain Von Trappe – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (General)





3.10 Kempton – William Hill Exclusive Mobile Offers Mares´ Handicap Hurdle.




Harry Fry’s Desert Queen bids to follow up a most impressive success at Ascot here today having demolished her rivals last time. She was always handy under Michael Legg and she set a strong tempo, as her rivals gradually cried enough. She won by twelve lengths at the line and the handicapper seemed to like that number as he put her up 12lb as a result. That will make life more difficult for her here but she has only had five runs under rules to date and should be open to further improvement.


However, I prefer the claims of Nicky Henderson’s BROXBOURNE who was unsuited by the drop back to 2m4f at Cheltenham last time. She made a winning reappearance at Aintree in November making just about all, getting the better of the likes of Our Kaempfer and Shutthefrontdoor. She is a thorough stayer so I was surprised to see ridden patiently last time but I think connections will switch to more aggressive tactics this time. She is a real galloper and I still don’t think we have seen the best of her over hurdles so her current mark of 139 could have some work in it. I think Harry Fry’s mare is the main danger but Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old may just be better handicapped at present.


The race is likely to centre around the front two but it will be interesting to see how Tagrita goes on her return from a lengthy absence. She had good form as a novice and having been dropped 10lb since her last run, she may be well in if she is primed to show her best on her return.




Advice




BROXBOURNE – 1pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill, Coral, BetVictor)







3.40 Kempton Park – The William Hill World Darts Championship Handicap Hurdle.




A tricky race to decipher with lightly-raced improvers taking on more established rivals, some of whom are reverting back to the smaller obstacles following a spell chasing.


Monsieur Gibraltar was twice a winner in France and made a grand first impression on these shores with a runaway victory in a Newton Abbot novice hurdle in the spring. He was well-backed for a valuable handicap on his return at Chepstow in early October, a race in which his handler Paul Nicholls has a phenomenal record. He never really got into the race though and was well down the field when pulled up two out. There are question marks on the back of that but he is still highly thought of and the softer conditions on offer here will certainly play to his strengths.


Another that failed to complete last time out was Zulu Oscar who tipped up at the last when in front in a similar contest to this at Doncaster. He has won on his only completed start over hurdles and remains open to improvement but he doesn’t have the luxury of talented amateur Mikey Legg taking off a valuable 7lb in this contest. I’dliketheoption was challenging him when he fell and was left in a clear lead as he ran out a comfortable twelve length victor. He looked like he was getting on top as they traversed the final flight anyway and a 5lb rise in the handicap may not be enough to stop him going in again. However, he does prefer a sounder surface and may not found conditions completely to his liking here.


Gary Moore has been having a good time of it of late and Ryeolliean is an interesting runner here. He opened his account over hurdles with a fine display at Plumpton in May before disappointing on each of his next three starts, albeit in decent company. He bounced back with a decent second last month at Wincanton, staying on strongly but never quite getting to the winner. He does seem to be a hard one to pin down but could well run a big race with the majority of the field having to give him weight.


Two Taffs is another who arrives here on the back of a decent second last time out having found only a Nicky Henderson hotpot too good at Kempton last month. His size suggests that chasing will be his game in time but he has looked to be improving with every run and is the type of animal the Skelton yard have made their name with. He has proven to be difficult to settle in his races and being held up last time may not have played to his strengths. If he makes the running here, he could well put the rest of the field to the sword.


However, DRAYTONIAN may have the strongest form in the book and is a confident selection. He made an inauspicious debut in a bumper at Warwick but was well-fancied that day and connections had seen enough at home to suggest that he merely needed that outing to glean some experience. He finished a close-up third in a hot Wetherby novice hurdle on his next start, form which has since been franked in spades with the winner, only a length and a half ahead of him, hosing up at Newbury earlier this month, now finding himself rated 145 and the runner-up going close in a valuable handicap at Market Rasen. He was long odds-on when breaking his duck back at Wetherby last month and won like was expected; travelling fluently into the race and comfortably drawing clear of the rest of the field. That wasn’t the strongest affair but he did what was necessary and in attractive style. He is another rangy sort who will make a cracking chaser in time but a mark of 126 is extremely lenient and he is certainly the one to beat.




Advice




DRAYTONIAN – 1pt win @ 5/1 (888Sport, 32Red)