The Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights on the Irish National Hunt calendar each year and takes place at Gowran Park on Thursday 21st January. The race can often throw up clues for the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals later in the season with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde featuring amongst the winners since 2000, while last 2 winners, On His Own and Djakadam, both almost followed up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 7 of last 10 winners had contested the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick or Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 1-4-22
8yo: 2-6-37
9yo: 3-12-47
10yo: 2-7-45
11yo+: 1-1-22
horses aged 6 to 9: 7-22-109
horses aged 10+: 3-8-67
All 3 winners aged 10+ had won or placed in the race in previous 2 years.
Since 1990 there have only been four 6yo runners, 4/1 favourite fell in 1994, 25/1 unplaced in 1998, 4/1 joint favourite fell in 2013 and 9/2 winner in 2015.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-6 or more: 3-1-12
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-5: 0-7-27
horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 2-9-65
horses carrying 10-5 or less: 5-13-72
The 4 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year), Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year), On His Own in 2014 (won this in 2012) and Djakadam, who went on to finish 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next time.
Top Weight: 4F42010U91 (2-3-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 138 or higher: 3-7-27
horses rated 128 to 137: 1-8-72
horses rated 127 or lower: 6-15-77
In past 5 years, horses rated 138+ have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 13 runners.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts


8 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 11 chases (3 exceptions had run in 16-17 chases previously)
6 of 10 winners were second season chasers (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in a previous renewal)
8 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (1 exception was a previous winner of the race)
6 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase

Other Races


Fred Kenny Lifetime Novice Handicap Chase winner (Aurora Bell): 4 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Heathfield): 72 (0-1-2)
At The Races Carey's Cottage Cup Handicap Chase winner (Toon River): 30 (0-1-2)
Troytown Handicap Chase winner (Riverside City): 855 (0-0-3)
Previous season's Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 0F5P (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B
3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown, finishing 044
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 133
2 of 10 ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F

Trainers


Willie Mullins (4-6-25) has trained 6 winners since 2000 and has won 3 of the last 4 runnings.
Tony Martin (1-3-6) won this in 2006 and seen 5 of his 6 runners since 2006 make first 5.
Joseph Mangan (1-0-4) won this in 2010.
Jim Dreaper (0-2-5) has saddled a placed finisher in each of the past 2 years.
Noel Meade (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, with his 17 runners since 2000 all finishing unplaced.

Running Style


2 of 10 winners led/made all
4 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear
5 of last 6 winners led or tracked leaders.

Price


No strong trends on the prices with 6 of 10 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (1-5-12) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75. Last winning favourite was back in 2006.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9 (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)
- Officially rated 138 or higher
- Has run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)
- Won or placed on one or both of last 2 completed chase starts
- Has won over 3M+
- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
- Second season chaser (or placed in a previous Thyestes)
- Previously won or placed in a Grade C or higher chase
- Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December
- Placed in 2015 Troytown and/or Thyestes Chase
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Tony Martin or Jim Dreaper.