BETBRIGHT TRIAL CHASE TRENDS 2016

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The Grade 2 Betbright Trial Chase (formerly the Argento & Cotswold Chase) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 30th January. Run over 3M 1½F, it can provide good clues as to a Gold Cup prospect’s suitability for the showpiece in March. The 2006 renewal was run at Wincanton but from a trends point of view, we will look at last 10 runnings at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at Cheltenham:

Age
6yo: 0-0-1
7yo: 1-3-9
8yo: 1-5-20
9yo: 3-3-18
10yo: 4-2-14
11yo+: 1-2-14
horses aged 9 or 10 have won 7 of last 8 runnings.
3 of the 4 horses aged 7, which were placed, were French bred
Since 2000, French bred 7yos: 2-2-6 compared to 7yos bred in GB & Ire: 0-1-5.

Breeding


Irish bred: 4-10-38
French bred: 3-4-21
GB bred: 3-1-16
Belgian bred: 0-0-1

Weight


horses carrying 11-10: 2-3-16
horses carrying 11-4 to 11-6: 5-5-38
horses carrying 11-3 or less: 3-7-22
Prior to Many Clouds’ win last year, the last winner to carry 11-10 to victory was Grey Abbey in 2005.
The last 3 winners to carry 11-10 had posted a career high RPR of 164+ on last completed start.

Official Ratings


9 of 10 winners were officially rated 153+

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M grade 1 chase)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (8 of 10 had run 2 to 4 times since August)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had 8 to 20 previous chase starts
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 3rd & 4th in Gold Cups)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (exception had won a grade hurdle & been 3rd in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a grade 1 chase & other was 5th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup)

Other Races


Previous season's winner (Many Clouds): 344 (0-0-3)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Smad Place): 1 (1-0-1)
David Martin Graduation Chase winner (O'Faolains Boy): 24 (0-1-2)
Weatherbys VAT Services Graduation Chase winner (Smad Place): 6 (0-0-1)
Sodexo Silver Cup winner (Wakanda): 4 (0-0-1)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Wakanda): F (0-0-1)
BetBright Chase winner (Rocky Creek): U (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 06B
3 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 5B1
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 1P
2 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 52
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Mildmay Novice Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Chase, finishing 21

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-3-12) won back to back runnings in 2010 & 2011.
Oliver Sherwood (1-0-1) won this with Many Clouds in 2015.
David Bridgwater (1-0-2) & Colin Tizzard (1-0-4) have also won the race once in past 10 years.
Alan King (0-3-3) has seen his 3 runners in this all get placed.

Price


No strong trends on prices with 7 of 10 winners priced between 10/3 & 7/1 and the other 3 going off at odds of 11/1 to 16/1.
The favourite (0-7-12) has a shocking record, having not won any of the last 10. You have to go back to 1999 for last successful market leader.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 or 10 (or French bred 7yo)
- Officially rated 153+
- Carrying 11-6 or less(or posted an RPR of 164+ on last completed start)
- Posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
- Had won over 2M 7F+
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Had run 8 to 20 time over fences
- Previously won at Cheltenham
- Had won a graded chase
- Previously finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase
- Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Second season chaser that finished in first 4 in Mildmay, Reynoldstown and/or Colin Parker Memorial Chase.