cheltenham trends day 3

[ganjaman2]

WORLD HURDLE TRENDS 2016


The World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses since 2000, including Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s. Thistlecrack has set himself apart as the stayer to beat this season, but last year’s winner, Cole Harden, and Alpha Des Obeaux & Vroum Vroum Mag, from Ireland, could provide stern competition.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-2-8
6yo: 4-9-35
7yo: 1-4-37
8yo: 2-2-30
9yo: 3-2-18
10yo: 0-1-8
11yo+: 0-0-6
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9
No horse aged 5 has ever won it, though 2 of last 8 five year olds to run in it have placed.
Prior to Solwhit’s win in 2013 (aged 9), the previous four horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous World Hurdle winners.

Gender


Mares (0-2-5) have gained 2 places from 5 runners since 2006. Only one female runner in last 10 years has been sent off shorter than 20/1 and that was Annie Power, who 2nd at 11/8 in 2014.
The last female winner of this was Shuil Ar Aghaidh in 1993 (trained in Ireland). Since then, there have been 5 placed female runners, 4 of which were trained in Ireland.

Breeding


French Bred: 6-9-51
Irish Bred: 2-10-64
British Bred: 2-1-20
Other: 0-0-7
French bred horses have won 6 of last 10, from 36% if the total runners.
Irish-bred horses failed to win the race between 2001 & 2013, but they filled the first 3 places in 2014 and 1st & 3rd in 2015.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season


8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd & 4th in Cleeve Hurdle last time)
7 of 10 winners attained an RPR of at least 161 last time (3 exceptions posted RPR's of 150+)
7 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days (2 of 3 exceptions had won the previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (exception was unbeaten in 4 career starts)
6 of 10 winners had won over course and distance (1 exception had won over 2M4F on only Cheltenham start and another was having first course start)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions, Solwhit & More Of That, had won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 4F and were having first try at 3M+)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (2 exceptions had finished 2nd in a grade 1 & other was an unbeaten grade 2 winner)
8 of 10 winners had won a 3M grade 1 or 2 hurdle at a left handed track that season (2 exception had yet to run over 3M, but had won a graded hurdle at left-handed track over 2M 3F-4F that season)

Other Races
Defending World Hurdle winner (Cole Harden): 21111 (4-1-5)
Long Distance Hurdle winner (Thistlecrack): 111110 (5-1-6)
Long Walk Hurdle winner (Thistlecrack): 1202111480 (4-2-9)
Cleeve Hurdle winner (Thistlecrack): 431172142 (3-3-9)
Liverpool Hurdle winner (Whisper): 281115 (3-1-6)
Relkeel Hurdle winner (Camping Ground): 3F5P1 (1-1-5)
West Yorkshire Hurdle winner (Kilcooley): 01 (1-0-2)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Prince Of Scars): 3320 (0-3-4)
Boyne Hurdle winner: 2P230 (0-3-5)
Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle winner (Dedigout): 32P (0-2-3)
Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle winner (Martello Tower): F963 (0-1-4)
Galmoy Hurdle winner (Alpha Des Obeaux): 6035 (0-1-4)
Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (Thistlecrack): F703 (0-1-4)
Rendlesham Hurdle winner: 8244 (0-1-4)
Coral Cup winner (Aux Ptits Soins): 75 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle, finishing 111112
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time, finishing 21114
4 of 10 winners ran in previous World Hurdle, finishing 1111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Long Walk Hurdle, finishing 1111
4 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 3111

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (4-3-15) has won 4 renewals between 2009 & 2012 with Big Buck’s and saddled Celestial Halo to finish runner-up in 2013 and also the 2nd & 3rd in 2015.
Alan King (1-3-10) trained the winner in 2006 and also saddled 1 of the first 4 in 3 of last 4 runnings in which he’s been represented.
Warren Greatrex (1-0-1) trained Cole Harden to win this in 2015.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-6) trained More Of That to win this in 2014 & Iris’ Gift to win it in 2004.
Willie Mullins (0-2-16) has just 2 places from 16 runners in last 10 renewals, however his last 4 runners in this that were priced shorter than 10/1 finished 3rd-3rd-4th-2nd.
Rebecca Curtis (0-1-2) saddled At Fishers Cross to finish 3rd & 4th in last 2 years.
David Pipe (0-1-7) has managed just 1 place from 7 runners.
Nicky Henderson (0-1-11) won the race in 2000 but has filled just 1 place from 11 runners since 2006.
Irish trained runners (1-7-40) won the race in 2013 for first time since 1995. Before Solwhit’s win, the previous 4 Irish based winners had their prep run in the Boyne Hurdle but in recent years the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Hatton’s Grace and the Galmoy Hurdle have produced Ireland’s main prospects for this.

Price


9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Cole Harden became the first double-figure priced winner this century, when winning in 2015.
Favourite (4-3-10) has only won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.05.






Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 8 (or a previous winner of the World Hurdle)


- French breds do well


- Previously run at least 10 times over hurdles (or unbeaten over hurdles)


- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (or a previous winner)


- Run 2 to 4 times this season, finishing in first 2 on all runs


- Achieved RPR of 161+ on last start


- Won over 3M+ (or a graded winner over 2M 4F+ & having first try at 3M+)


- Previous Cheltenham winner (ideally over this course and distance)


- Won a 3M grade 1 or 2 hurdle this season at a left-handed track


- Previously finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle (ideally won)


- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race


- Finished in first 2 in Cleeve, Long Distance and/or Long Walk Hurdle


- Finished in first 4 in Liverpool or Mersey Novice Hurdle at 2015 Aintree Festival


- Trained in Great Britain


- From first 4 in the betting.

[ganjaman2]

RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS 2016


The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and in recent years the King George at Kempton has provided the key clues for this.





Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-5
7yo: 2-5-15
8yo: 3-7-35
9yo: 1-3-28
10yo: 3-2-15
11yo+: 0-1-10
No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival.
8 of 10 horses aged 6 or 7 to make the frame were French Bred.

Gender


Mares (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners in this.

Breeding


French bred: 4-10-34
Irish bred: 4-8-58
British bred: 2-1-12
German bred: 0-1-4
French & British bred horses have won 6 of 10 from just 42.6% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 over 2M4F-5F))
6 of 10 winners had won a class 1 chase at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions had finished 2nd in previous year's Arkle or JLT)
10 of 10 winners had won a graded race
Since race became a grade 1, 7 of 8 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 152+
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further

Other race


Highest placed finisher to return: 161P51246 (3-1-9)
Record of placed runners from previous year: 191U56495P6 (2-0-11)
Ascot Chase winner: 942117 (2-1-6)
Previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase winner (Champagne West): F119 (2-0-4)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Vibrato Valtat): 031 (1-1-3)
Stella Artois 1965 Chase winner (Vautour): 15 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): P1 (1-0-2)
BetBright Best For Festival Racing Handicap Chase winner (Village Vic): 187 (1-0-3)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Annacotty): 97198 (1-0-5)
Old Roan Chase winner (Sound Investment): 323P (0-3-4)
Red Mills Chase winner: 335 (0-2-3)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Road To Riches): 2 (0-1-1)
Powers Irish Whiskey Chase winner (Ptit Zig): 3 (0-1-1)
December Gold Cup winner (Village Vic): F24 (0-1-3)
Peterborough Chase winner (Al Ferof): 356647PP (0-1-8)
Weatherbys VAT Graduation Chase winner (Smad Place): 76 (0-0-2)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase winner (Flemenstar): 6P (0-0-2)
Previous year's JLT Novice Chase winner (Vautour): PP9 (0-0-3)
Highest placed finisher from King George: 351271455 (2-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Gold Cup: 917194825 (2-1-9)
Highest placed finisher from December Gold Cup: F212435 (1-3-7)
6 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 266P55
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase last time, finishing 3211
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 4F1 (none of last 5 have though)
2 of 10 winners ran in that season's December Gold Cup, finishing B3
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Stella Artois 1965 Chase, finishing 1F
3 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 1U1
2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in previous JLT Novice Chase, finishing 22
Record of horses that ran in the King George: 35461P21741174541051P085 (6-2-24)
Four horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold off marks of 150+ were John’s Spirit (5th in 2015), Hidden Cyclone (2nd in 2014), Poquelin (2nd in 2010) & Fondmort (1st in 2006).

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-2-12) & David Pipe (2-1-4) has each saddled 2 winners of the Ryanair since 2006.
Alan King (1-2-6) won this last year with Uxizandre.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-14) trained the winners in 2005 & 2007.
Irish trained runners (0-7-29) are still waiting for their first win in this race.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Willie Mullins (0-1-7) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 6 years.

Price


9 of 11 previous winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
Albertas Run in 2010 at 14/1 & Uxizandre at 16/1 in 2015 have been the only two double-figure priced winners in the race’s history.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.67.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 8 to 10 (or a French bred 6 or 7yo)
- Had 1 to 4 runs since October
- Finished in first 3 last time (or ran in the King George)
- Achieved RPR of 154+ on last chase run
- Posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
- Won over 2M 5F+
- Previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Officially rated 152+
- Second season chaser that won Berkshire and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Ran in the King George this season (ideally finishing in first 6)
- Finished in first 2 in 2015 Ryanair or JLT Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Ascot Chase last time out
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Alan King or David Pipe
- From first 3 in the betting (6/1 or below).

[ganjaman2]

PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2016


The second race on day 3 is the Pertemps Network Final, which is a listed handicap hurdle run over 3 miles. Horses not quite thought good enough for the World Hurdle often take their place in this. It has thrown up a few shocks since 2004 (including two 50/1 winners), though the last 2 winners both went off at single-figure odds.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-19
6yo: 2-6-50
7yo: 1-8-56
8yo: 4-8-49
9yo: 2-2-27
10yo: 1-1-17
11yo+: 0-2-17
Horses aged 5 to 7: 3-17-125
Horses aged 8 to 10: 7-11-93
The only horse aged 10+ to win this, in past 30 years, has been Buena Vista in 2011 after he had won the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2009.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 5-12-118
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 5-18-117
Between 2005 & 2011, 6 of 7 winners carried 10-9 or less, however in the past 4 years, all 4 winners have carried 10-11 or more and 15 of 16 places have been filled by horses carrying 10-9 or more.
Top Weight: 00908040P014 (1-2-12)

Official Ratings


Horses rated 143 to 160: 1-7-49
Horses rated 129 to 142: 9-21-170
Horses rated 128 or lower: 0-2-16
In the past 5 years, all 5 winners and 18 of 20 places were filled by horses rated 135 to 148.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had their last run in January or February


9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 7 times that season (exception won only start that season)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 10 hurdles races (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 2 in previous year's race)
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 hurdles races
7 of 10 winner had run in 1 to 4 handicap hurdles (2 of 3 exceptions finished in first 2 in previous Pertemps)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (exception had won 3)
8 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle (2 exceptions 2nd in a graded hurdle)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race (2 exceptions rated 71 to 79 on the flat)
2 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (3 having first course start)

Other races


Exeter Pertemps Qualifier winner (Unowhatimeanharry): 17 (1-0-2)
Coral Proud Sponsors of British Racing Handicap Hurdle winner (Awaywiththegreys): 1U0 (1-0-3)
Bigcasinobonuses.co.uk Handicap Hurdle winner (The Boss's Dream): 3 (0-1-1)
Citipost Handicap Hurdle winner (So Fine): 2P (0-1-2)
Punchestown Pertemps Qualifier winner (Rathpatrick): 5 (0-0-1)
Huntingdon Pertemps Qualifier winner (Taj Badalandabad): 00 (0-0-2)
Wincanton Pertemps Qualifier winner (If In Doubt): 000 (0-0-3)
Newbury Pertemps Handicap Hurdle winner (Missed Approach): 0000 (0-0-4)
Warwick Pertemps Qualifier winner (Flintham): 000P608 (0-0-7)
Record of first 5 from Betfair Tap Tap Boom "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle: 610P11000 (3-0-9)
Record of horses that finished in top 6 in previous Pertemps: 00840025101P005000 (2-2-18)
Record of horses that finished that finished in first 4 in Leopardstown Pertemps Q'fier: 3P08923280 (0-4-10)

Racing Tactics


8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
Two others were settled in midfield.

Trainers


David Pipe (2-3-21) has trained Buena Vista to win this in 2010 & 2011 and also saddled the runner-up in 2015.
Venetia Williams (1-1-6) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-11) have both saddled a winner & placed finisher in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-18) trained the winner in 2003, 2004 and 2013.
Philip Hobbs (1-0-12) & Nicky Henderson (1-0-12) have trained the last 2 winners.
Alan King (0-3-8) has seen 3 of his 5 runners since 2009 get placed.
Willie Mullins (0-2-3) & Paul Nicholls (0-2-10) have each bagged a couple of places since 2006.
Harry Fry (0-1-1), Jessica Harrington (0-1-2) & Richard Newland (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in last 10 runnings.
Irish trained runners (1-8-46) have won just 1 of the last 10. 8 of 9 Irish-trained runners to make frame had run in Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier. Their last win came when filling first 3 places in 2006, since then, they have gained just 5 places from 40 runners.

Price


No massively significant trend with regard to prices though 7 of 10 winners went off between 14/1 & 25/1.
Beware of backing a horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 10 years only 6 of the 34 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places, though last 2 winners were sent off 9/2 & 9/1.
Favourites (1-1-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9 (ideally 8 or 9)


- Officially rated 135 to 148


- Had last run in January or February


- Run 2 to 7 times this season


- Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (or placed in a graded hurdle)


- Run 6 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 5)


- Run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (or finished in first 2 in this race in 2015)


- Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles


- Won over 2M 7F+


- NH bred or rated over 70 on the flat


- Finished in first 5 in Betfair Fixed Brush H’cap Hurdle and/or Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock


- Highest placed finisher from Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier does well


- Trained by David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King or Venetia Williams


- Tends to race prominently.

[ganjaman2]

KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2016


The final race on day 3 is the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. It’s a handicap chase run over 3M 1½F and is one of the lower class races at the Festival. It is restricted to amateur riders only and having one of the more experience amateurs on board is certainly a big plus for any horse’s chances.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-3-14
7yo: 3-8-49
8yo: 1-2-58
9yo: 5-8-53
10yo: 0-8-31
11yo+: 1-1-30
9 of 10 winners have been aged 7 to 9, they represented 68.1% of total runners


Since 2000, the 2 winners aged 10+ have placed in previous season’s Ultima Business H’cap Chase.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


Horses carrying 11-3 or more: 6-16-119
Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-2: 4-9-87
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 0-5-29
All 10 winners carried 10-10 or more (after claim)
The last 7 winners of the Kim Muir were allotted a weight of 11-6 or higher.
Top Weights: 7UP0611P4302P38 (2-4-15) have won 2 of last 7 runnings and both horses to shoulder top weight in 2012 were placed and one top weight finished a close 2nd in 2013 and one finished 3rd in 2014.

Official Ratings


Horses rated 134 or higher: 7-15-117
Horses rated 133 or lower: 3-15-118
In recent years the trend has been towards horses with higher official ratings.
In the last 7 runnings:
Horses rated 134 or higher: 7-15-97
Horses rated 133 or lower: 0-6-69
The previous ratings ceiling for this race was 140 but that has been raised to 145. The last 7 winners have all been rated within 8lbs of the top weight and in the past 4 runnings 16 of 20 places were filled by horses rated within 8lbs of the top weight.

Recent/Past Form




8 of 10 winners finished 6th or worse on their last start (2 others finished 1st or 2nd)
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on 1 or both of last 2 chase starts
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher handicap chase on last run over fences
10 of 10 winners ran over 3M+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was placed in previous year's Irish Grand National & other was 2nd in Munster National)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 7 handicap chases


10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers (both 1st season chase winners were rated 137+ over hurdles)
Since 2000, 3 more experienced chasers have won this (4th to 7th season chasers) and all 3 had finished in first 5 in previous Festival's 3M Festival Trophy Chase
4 of last 7 winners had run in a handicap hurdle in their previous 3 starts that season

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from Murphy Group Handicap Chase: 0P31011 (3-1-7)
Highest placed finisher from previous year's Ultima Business Solutions H'cap Chase: 7P341 (1-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from previous year: 9962P5 (0-1-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Murphy Group Handicap Chase, finishing 386
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 4P
2 of 10 winners had run in Haydock National Trial last time out, finishing 09

Racing Tactics


6 of 10 winner raced prominently
1 of 10 winners raced in midfield
3 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

Jockeys


Jockeys with no claim: 8-22-136
Jockeys with a claim: 2-8-99
Jockeys with no claim have ridden 8 of last 10 winners and taken 30 of 40 places.
Jamie Codd (3-0-9) has ridden the winner three times in the past 10 years.
Ryan Hatch (1-0-1) rode the winner in 2014.
Nina Carberry (0-5-10), Paddy Mullins (0-2-3), Kevin Power (0-2-5) & Derek O'Connor (0-2-7) have each ridden multiple placed horses in the race since 2006.

Trainers


David Pipe (2-2-22) saddled the winner in 2015, the 1st & 2nd in 2011 and also the runner-up in 2010.
Donald McCain (2-1-10) has won 2 of the last 8 renewals & saddled runner-up in 2013. 5 of his 10 runners have finished in the first 5.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-17) trained the winner in 2012 & a placed finisher in 2011 & 2013.
Evan Williams (1-0-5) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-10) trained the winner in 2008 & 2013.
Gordon Elliot (0-3-3) has seen his 3 runners in this finish 3rd in 2013, 2nd in 2014 & 2015.
Venetia Williams (0-3-9) has saddled a placed finisher in 3 of the last 10 runnings.
Willie Mullins (0-2-4) has seen his last 4 runners finish 4th-5th-7th-4th.
Tony Martin (0-2-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners get placed, both ridden by Kevin Power.
Nicky Henderson (0-1-9) saddled the winner in 2002 & 2005 but has gained just 1 place from 9 runners in past 10 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (0-0-10) has struggled to make an impression with his runners in this race, seeing all 10 in the past 10 years finish unplaced.
Prior to 2014, Irish trained runners (1-11-41) had a fairly poor record, having previously won the race in 1983. There were signs of improved form in this race as they did fill 3 of the first 5 home in 2012, 2 of the first 5 in 2013, the 1st, 2nd & 4th in 2014 and the 2nd, 3rd & 5th in 2015.

Price


No strong trends on prices with 3 winning favourites, one at 33/1 and the other 6 priced between 9/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of last 10, showing a healthy level stakes profit of 10.33.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 9 (or aged 10+ and placed in 2015 Ultima H’cap Chase)


- Allotted to carry 11-6 or more (top weight won 2 of last 7)


- Officially rated 134 or higher (ideally rated within 8lbs of top rated)


- Finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts


- Ran in a class 3 or better handicap chase over 3M+ last time


- Previously won over 3M+


- Posted highest RPR over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)


- 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser


- Run in 1 to 8 handicap chases (won no more than 2)


- A run over hurdles this season is a positive


- Ran well in 2015 Ultima Business Solutions and/or Murphy Group H'cap Chase


- Ridden by a jockey with no claim (Jamie Codd & Nina Carberry do well)


- Trained by Donald McCain, Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins, David Pipe or Jonjo O’Neill.