The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 20th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-6
7yo: 3-1-5
8yo: 4-3-20
9yo: 1-4-13
10yo: 1-2-15
11yo+: 1-1-8
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-5-31
horses aged 9+: 3-7-36
Both winners aged 10+ had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before.

Breeding


Irish bred: 4-7-26
French bred: 3-3-23
GB bred: 3-0-11
German bred: 0-2-4
Belgian bred: 0-0-3
Record of King's Theatre progeny: 1121614 (4-1-7)

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had won previous year's running on last start)
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 161+ in their last 2 starts (exception posted RPR of 156 on penultimate run)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had run at least 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won over fences that season (1 exception making seasonal debut and other was 3rd in King George)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 6) were previous course winners (all 5 exceptions were having their first course start)
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 155+

Other Races


Highest placed finisher from King George: 111212 (4-2-6)
williamhill.com Chase winner (Triolo D'Alene): 11 (2-0-2)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Vibrato Valtat): F21 (1-1-3)
Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 1 (1-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishng 61325
3 of 10 winners ran in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in WilliamHill.com Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Ryanair Chase, finishing P6
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 16
3 of 4 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 252
2 of 4 second season chasers to win it, ran in Haldon Gold Cup, finishing 12
2 of 4 second season chasers to win it, ran in Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing F1
7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in the Arkle in their novice chase season (1 exception was 3rd in RSA Chase as a novice)
The record of horses who finished in the first 5 in the previous season's Arkle is very strong: 214F121 (3-2-7)

Trainers


Nicky Henderson (2-2-7) has saddled Riverside Theatre to win in 2011 & 2012 and Hunt Ball & Ma Filleule to place in last 2 runnings.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-12) saddled 1 winner and 2 seconds from 12 runners (7 of 12 sent off 4/1 or shorter).
Philip Hobbs (1-1-5) trained Captain Chris to win this in 2014 and runner-up in 2013.
David Pipe (0-0-4) has seen all 4 of his runners finish unplaced.

Price


The last 10 winners were priced under 6/1
8 of the last 10 favourites have won this and no winners has gone off bigger than 11/2 since 2005.
Favourites (8-0-10) have gained 8 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 8.99.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 or 8 or won/placed in a previous Ascot Chase
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 161+ in last 2 starts
- Previously run in at least 6 chases and won over fences this season
- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Won or placed in a grade 1 chase
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Officially rated 155+
- Course winner (or having first run here)
- Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle as a novice chaser
- Finished in first 4 in King George or Old Roan Chase
- Finished in first 2 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or WilliamHill.com Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson
- Priced shorter than 6/1 (favourite especially).