BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2016

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The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is a 3M handicap chase, which takes place at Kempton on Saturday, the 27th February. It has been a race in which higher rated horses, prominent in the betting, have fared well.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-4
7yo: 2-7-26
8yo: 4-6-40
9yo: 2-2-30
10yo: 1-4-24
11yo: 1-0-11
12yo+: 0-1-4
8yos have the best individual record, winning 4 of the last 9.
3 of 4 winners aged older than 8 had won a graded chase.
Last 2 winners aged older than 10 had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal of this.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-15-62
horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-7-77
8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so higher weights are heavily favoured.
Top Weight: 2310433827 (1-5-10) has gained 3 wins and 5 places from their 13 runners since 2004.

Official Ratings
horses rated 141 or higher: 8-15-76
horses rated 140 or lower: 2-7-63
The last 10 winners were officially rated 138 or higher.

Recent/Past Form


8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (5 won) - one exception 5th in King George
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 141+ on last chase start


10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August
10 of 10 winners had win over 2M 5F+
7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 of 3 exceptions were having first try at 3M or further)
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 3 to 11 chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps chases


8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (2 exceptions had won twice in class 3)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track
4 of 10 winners were course winners (other 6 were having first run here)
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase

Other Races


Previous Year's winner (Rocky Creek): 42603 (0-2-5)
Masters Handicap Chase winner (Le Reve): 12 (1-1-2)
Sky Bet Great Yorkshire Chase winner (Ziga Boy): 1 (1-0-1)
Winkworth Handicap Chase winner (Tenor Nivernais): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Grand National, finishing 75
2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66
Last 2 novice chasers to win this had won a chase over 2M 5F at Wincanton earlier that season

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners led or chased leaders

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (2-6-21) has saddled 6 of the last 8 favourites of this race. He has trained the winner in 2008 & 2015 (both had won the Reynoldstown as novice chasers) and also saddled the runner-up in 2013 & 2014. In last 6 years, 5 of his 12 runners have failed to complete (including all 4 favourites).
Tom George (2-2-7) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 & 2012 and finish 2nd & 3rd in 2010 & 2011.
Philip Hobbs (1-3-10) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and also saddled placed finisher in 2012 & 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) & Harry Fry (1-0-1) trained the winners in 2011 & 2014 respectively.
Colin Tizzard (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame, while Lucy Wadham (0-1-1) trained Le Reve to finish 2nd in 2015.
Venetia Williams (0-0-9), Alan King (0-0-6) & Nicky Henderson (0-0-7) have struggled in this, their 22 collective runners failing to produce a single placed finisher.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1
Bally Legend bucked the trend of lower priced winner, winning at 28/1 in 2014.
horses priced 11/1 or shorter: 8-15-63 (+4.00)
horses priced 12/1 or bigger: 2-7-76 (-35.00)
Favourites (1-1-10) have gained just 1 win since 2006, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 or 8 (or aged 9+ and previously won a graded chase)


- Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 138 or higher
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed start (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Previously contested 3 to 11 chases.
- Run in 2 to 4 chases since August
- Run in 9 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3
- Won a class 2 race or higher
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase (or is a novice)
- Won over 2M 6F+
- Tends to race prominently
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Previously won a chase at a right handed track
- Trained by Tom George, Paul Nicholls or Philip Hobbs
- Priced 12/1 or shorter.