LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2016

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The Betway Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 2nd April, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-7-57
5yo: 3-8-59
6yo: 4-7-51
7yo: 0-3-29
8yo+: 0-5-20
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 77% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged older than 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-65
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-107
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-4-44
9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
horses running with a penalty (1-2-12) have a fair record with 3 of 12 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 0027604700 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings


horses rated 99 or higher: 3-11-68
horses rated 90 to 98: 7-18-136
horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104.

Recent/Past Form


5 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 turf starts
8 of 10 winners (last 5) had had 15 or more career starts


9 of 10 winners previously gained 3 to 6 career wins
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the year (2 of 3 exceptions had been racing in Dubai)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3 (exception won a listed race)

Other Races
SIS Handicap winner (Storm Rock): 41 (1-1-2)
Bunbury Cup winer (Rene Mathis): 81 (1-0-2)
Discovernewmarket.co.uk Handicap winner (Miss Van Gogh): 40 (0-1-2)
Record of first 5 from Discovernewmarket.co.uk H'cap to run in this (since 2000): 001014301540020320 (3-6-18)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700
2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80
2 of 10 winners ran in last year’s Lincoln, finishing 62
3 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November

Trainers


Richard Fahey (2-5-24) trained the winner in 2012 & 2015 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
William Haggas (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 and also the 3rd in 2012 & 5th in 2015.
John Quinn (2-1-9) trained the winners in 2006 & 2013.
John Ryan (1-0-4) & Michael Dods (1-0-3) have both saddled the winner in past 5 years.
David O’Meara (0-3-7) trained the 3rd & 4th in 2014 and also the runner-up in 2015.
Julie Camacho (0-2-2) saddled Rio Riva to be placed in 2007 & 2008.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2004-2015)


horses drawn 1 to 7: 3-11-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70
horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-11-72
No strong trends on the draw, though the last 4 runnings at Doncaster on ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3, while the last 7 runnings here, on good to soft or firmer, were won by horses drawn 9 or higher. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.



Price


No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners have gone to horses priced 16/1 or higher.
Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.67.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 to 6
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
- Officially rated 95 to 104
- Finished in first 3 last time out
- Having first run of the season (or has run at Meydan this year)
- Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
- Previously gained 3 to 6 career wins
- Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
- Previously won at listed to 3 level (but no higher)
- Won a race worth 11K+
- Finished in first 5 from discovernewmarket.co.uk at Newmarket in October
- Trained by William Haggas, John Quinn, David O’Meara or Richard Fahey
- If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3 (otherwise drawn 9 or higher)