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    Default DAY 2 AINTREE - 8/4/216

    1.40 Aintree – Alder Hey Children´s Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)


    When looking at these 20+ runner handicap hurdles, luck always has a big part to play, so given that experience can help horses get themselves out of trouble, it’s surprising to see that Novices have such a good record in the race. Eight of the last 14 winners have been on their novice campaigns, so with only five Novices in this field, it’s an interesting bonus point for Curious Carlos, Francis Of Assisi, Tycoon Prince, Cardinal Palace and Ma Du Fou.


    22 of the 27 winners of this race in the past had already won earlier in the season so you’re certainly looking for a horse that has shown its wellbeing in the season, in fact all of the last seven winners had won in the season so the likes of Starchitect, Qewy and last year’s winner Theinval would have to defy this trend to win.
    JP McManus-owned horses have a very good record in the race, the most prominent owner in NH racing has won this on five out of the last 18 runnings, so it may pay to take notice of his three entries this time: Blazer, Box Office and Champagne At Tara.


    Irish trained horses also have a good record, winning five of the last 18 runnings of the race from limited representation, so Blazer, Tycoon Prince and Cardinal Palace get another tick next to their names alongside the Mullins-trained Whiteout and Buiseness Sivola.


    There have only been two winning favourites in this race in the past 27 years, which isn’t a massive shock given the competitive nature of the race, but the fact that ten of the last 12 winners were sent off at a price of 10/1 or bigger helps us narrow down the field further, leaving a black mark next to the well-fancied Blazer and Ma Do Fou who head the market at around 8/1.


    Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Peter Bowen have excellent strike rates with runners in this, so it’s interesting to see that only two horses in this year’s race are from those stables. Henderson saddles Theinval who won the race last year, while Peter Bowen has Curious Carlos in the race, who is a very interesting progressive handicapper.


    Speaking of the Bowen horse, he sits at the top of the trends table, yet doesn’t seem to have been found in the market. At around 20/1, it seems that the market could well be underplaying quite how far this horse is improving. A mark of 130 could still be underestimating him and a hat-trick isn’t out of the question with the talented Sean Bowen taking the ride. The step up to this trip seemed to suit the seven-year-old novice nicely and of the ground stays on the better side, he could go well.


    Adding to the shortlist is John Ferguson’s Francis of Assisi, who showed plenty of promise earlier on in the season when winning three novice hurdles on the bounce and even though he hasn’t won since, his efforts when finishing sixth in the County Hurdle read well in this context. He deals with most types of ground, but better suits best and with 7lb claimer Alex Ferguson on board, he’s a bit ahead of his official mark. This two and a half miles around Aintree should suit well and he could be a huge price at 33/1.


    However, looking towards a horse that is more well-faniced and Gordon Elliott’s Tycoon Prince is the name that jumps off the page. He’s level at the top of the trends table with Curious Carlos and looks to have more substantial form. Although he wasn’t a match for Bellshill last time out on heavy ground, this better surface and his mark of 139 should give him a great chance in a very competitive heat.


    Shortlist


    Tycoon Prince


    Curious Carlos


    Francis Of Assisi






    2.15 Aintree – Imagine Cruising First In The Frame Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1)




    Being the premier novice hurdle over two miles at Cheltenham, it is little surprise that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle tends to serve as a good guide for this race. Half of the last sixteen winners of this race finished no worse than sixth in the race which bodes well for Buveur D’Air who finished third behind stablemate Altior.


    Outside of the Supreme, it is preferable for horses to have finished in the first two places on their most recent starts, which is hardly a shock considering the quality of the race. Only three of this year’s field fail to match either trend, namely Bleu Et Rouge, North Hill Harvey and Petit Mouchoir, with the latter pair having finished eighth and ninth respectively in the Supreme, whilst Willie Mullins’ five-year-old fell in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.


    It is also interesting to note that all but two of the last fifteen winners had not won a pattern race over hurdles which suggests that this race tends to suit improving horses well. This would appear to be a major negative for the chances of Limini who of course landed the inaugural Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Six of this year’s field have yet to win a Pattern race so the sextet to keep an eye on could be Altruism, Buveur D’Air, Gwafa, Marracudja, North Hill Harvey and Petit Mouchoir.


    The final factor to mention is that Irish-trained horses have a pretty poor record in the race, having only won two renewals since 1977. They make up just less than half the field this year so it may be looking away from the Willie Mullins’ battalion for this race at least. In terms of trainers to follow, Nicky Henderson has won four of the last six renewals so clearly any Seven Barrows runner is worth a second look, namely Buveur D’Air in this year’s field.


    The market suggests that Willie Mullins’ mare Limini is the one to beat, having maintained her unbeaten sequence when winning at Cheltenham last time. She was impressive on the day and whilst her trainer was complimentary about her afterwards, this race is likely to be much stronger than the one she ran in there. She does receive an allowance from the geldings but the trends suggest that we can make a case against her and with that in mind I think she is worth taking on at the head of the market.
    With trends in mind, our standout candidate looks to be Buveur D’Air who overcame inexperience to finish a solid third in the Supreme Novices’ at the Cheltenham Festival. Whilst the first two home were towards the head of affairs throughout, he was held up and had he been nearer to the pace, he may well have finished closer to the winner. In truth he has done very little wrong under rules to date and with his trainer boasting such a strong record in the race, it is significant that he has chosen to send the five-year-old ahead of the 2m4f novice. This field doesn’t look to have the same depth as the Supreme and with that experience under his belt, I find it hard to see him finishing outside of the places.


    As we saw on Thursday with Arzal, it can be difficult to peg front-runners back at Aintree so Nick Williams’ Agrapart must come into the reckoning for this race. He was a wide-margin winner over 2m4f here in December and having acquitted himself well in Grade 1 company at Sandown, he went on to land the Betfair Hurdle under a forceful Lizzie Kelly ride. He clearly enjoys being out in front and whilst he will need to improve on that run to figure here, he is likely to be thereabouts over the final couple of hurdles.


    One who could run well at a big price could be Paul Webber’s Gwafa who having run well in a hot novice hurdle over Christmas, has since gone on to win his next two starts in impressive fashion. His latest win at Huntingdon under a penalty was a good performance and his trainer mentioned Aintree rather than Cheltenham as a target for him. He was a pretty smart performer on the flat in the not too distant past and he could outrun his sizeable odds of around 33/1.


    Shortlist


    Buveur D’Air


    Agrapart


    Gwafa





    2.50 Aintree – Betfred Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1)






    A field of eight go to post in this year’s renewal of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase over an extended three miles and, as you might expect, the RSA chase winner Blaklion fits the profile of the most likely winner. He fulfils all the trends regarding experience, quality and running in the right races, so is clearly one to keep on-side after he defeated all his challengers up the hill at Cheltenham.


    The best way to look at this race with trends is to try and play an elimination game, starting with the statistic that 31 of the 35 winners of the race had already won at least twice over fences, which puts a big black mark next to Ballyalton, who won his first race over the larger obstacles at The Festival in March.


    11 of the last 14 winners ran at the showpiece National Hunt Festival in the Cotswolds, so for Henri Parry Morgan and Otago Trail, the fact they’re fresh for this is not necessarily a positive. Those two horses have also never run in a Grade 1 race either over hurdles or fences, something every single one of the last 20 winners had done, so the Peter Bowen and Venetia Williams competitors are struggling on the trends.


    Quality clearly shines through here, with eight of the last 14 winners having won a graded chase, so in addition to those we’ve eliminated, Out Sam falls by the wayside after only winning class three and four novice contests so far in his chasing career.


    Unsurprisingly, five of the last 11 winners of the Mildmay Novices’ Chase ran in the equivalent race at the Cheltenham Festival, so while it’s not necessarily essential, it’s a positive to have that top class experience and while Un Temps Pour Tout and Native River both ran very well indeed at Cheltenham, it wasn’t in the RSA, so their claims take a knock on the trends.


    We’re left with just two now, and these are the two that will be going on our shortlist. Obviously Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion is the first name, but Willie Mullins’ Roi Des Francs also joins him at a big price.


    After finishing a well-beaten sixth in the RSA, you might think this would be a bit of a push for him to contest at the business end here, but a first-time hood will help him to settle better than he did at Cheltenham, and the slightly softer ground that he’ll get here looks to be much more suitable. Roi Des Francs’ double-figure price does seem to be too big and while he may have a tough task reversing Cheltenham form with Blaklion, you’d be confident that he’d put in an improved showing.
    Un Temps Pour Tout’s handicap win at The Festival over Holywell looks to be excellent form and if he carries on running at that level, he’d have a fair chance here. He stacks up well at the trends, just one tick behind Blaklion, but the worry is whether he’s classy enough to trouble the real Grade 1 performers in the race. He certainly seems too short in the market given the proven ability of the opposition.


    As you can tell, the top tip is of course Blaklion, who was brave in winning the RSA and if he shows the same level of form here, then all the rest have a bit to find with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge. The ground shouldn’t pose a problem as long as it doesn’t get particularly soft and he’s a very solid proposition.


    Shortlist


    Blaklion


    Roi Des Francs




    3.25 Aintree – JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1)




    The market would have us believe that Vautour is almost a certainty to follow up his Ryanair success and to be honest, the trends do not do anything to dissuade us from that opinion. When we consider that 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 earlier in the season and that four winners had been beaten in the King George at Kempton, you can start to see the case being built in his favour. The Ryanair Chase, which he won impressively has provided six of the last eleven winners and fifteen of the last twenty-one winners came from the first two in the betting. The only slight negative is that previous form at this meeting is something that 18 of the last 25 winners have had on their resume but if that is a pretty insignificant stat as the left-handed nature of the course should work in his favour. As I said at the top, it might be a little boring but I find it hard to look past the favourite here.


    In truth, the only member of the field with a similarly strong record on the trends in Al Ferof who chased Vautour home in fourth at Cheltenham. Apart from not having won a Grade 1 this season, he has form at this meeting and also finished behind Vautour in the King George at Kempton over Christmas. He looks the most likely to finish second, but with the best will in the world, it is hard to see the eleven-year-old improving on his two runs behind Vautour too much unless the favourite performs well-below expectations.


    Of the rest, Clarcam was a Grade 1 winner over course and distance twelve months ago but his form this season has been disappointing to say the least. He needs to bounce right back to his best to get involved here and even then, he would need a personal best to give the favourite any worries at all.


    God’s Own and Somersby both ran fine races when fourth and fifth respectively in the Queen Mother Champion Chase but both would have 2m as their preferred trip. The former probably stays the trip a little better but was put in his place by Josses Hill in February and any cut in the ground would not be in his favour.


    The field is completed by Vibrato Valtat who was still going well when falling at the fourth last in the Ryanair Chase. He has found life tough in the top two mile chases this term and is worth trying at this sort of trip. He chased home Clarcam twelve months ago and if he can get round, then he could be the one to give Al Ferof most to think about for second.


    Shortlist


    Vautour


    Al Ferof





    4.05 Aintree – Crabbie´s Topham Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)




    The Grand National fences pose a unique test and it is therefore little surprise that horses with previous experience of them have fared well in recent years. In fact eight of the last twelve winners had run over the obstacles and there are thirteen of this year’s field who will have knowledge of what awaits them. Venetia Williams’ Bennys Mist is one of that group having won the Grand Sefton Chase here in December and is joined in this illustrious group by the likes of Ruben Cotter, Rathlin, Dare To Endeavour and Corrin Wood.


    There aren’t too many opportunities for horses to run over the obstacles so it is perhaps not surprising that six of the last ten winners had run in the previous year’s renewal of the race. Sadly the winner Rajdhani Express is no longer with us but the race is represented by Fairy Rath (2nd), Rathlin (3rd), Ruben Cotter (5th), whilst Turban, Bennys Mist, Eastlake and Witness In Court all failed to complete.


    In a handicap as competitive as this, the weights can play a big part and it seems that 10st 7lb is the ceiling, with only four of the last twelve winners having carried more than that to victory. When we apply this boundary to this year’s field, it eliminates the top ten as they appear on the racecard, from Third Intention down to Eastlake.


    Whilst overall experience is a positive in this race, unlike the Becher run here in December, this is not a race in which older horses have done well. In the last twenty two renewals, only one winner was aged eleven or older which doesn’t bode well for the two eleven-year-olds in this year’s field Rathlin and Rouge Et Blanc as well as the sole twelve-year-old Mr Moonshine.


    Something else worth bearing in mind is that horses have to be at their absolute prime to run well here and it is interesting to note that 11 of the last 12 winners had run within the last 29 days. This splits the field exactly in half this year and some of the leading fancies falling on the right side of the cut include Village Vic, Killer Crow, Rathlin, Blood Cotil and Eastlake.


    Hopefully with the aid of these trends we can narrow down the field and the first place to start is with last year’s runner-up Fairy Rath who looks to have plenty going in his favour this time around. Nick Gifford’s ten-year-old is on a similar mark to last year and confirmed his well-being when winning at Sandown in February. He really took to these fences last year and as we have said previous experience often fares well.


    At the time of writing, the market is headed by Philip Hobbs’ Village Vic who was very progressive in the early part of this season but found the Ryanair too hot at Cheltenham last time. He shoulders a big weight tomorrow and having never run over the Grand National fences, it is hard to know how he will take to the obstacles. Those however are two strong trends that he has to overcome and as a result, he is probably best avoiding at the head of the market.


    Rathlin was in the care of Mouse Morris when third in this race last year and having taken a little while to find his form this year, he won well at Ayr last month. Even with a 5lb rise that puts him 9lb lower than the mark he ran off last year so he looks potentially weighted to run a big race. The one major negative would be his age at the age of eleven, but overall he looks to have plenty going in his favour.


    Paul Nicholls’ Ruben Cotter was sent off favourite for this race last year having defied a long absence to win at Kempton in March. He got a 10lb hike in the weights for that and although he ran well to finish fifth, the handicapper probably had him in his grips last year. He has only been seen once since then in the Betbright Chase at Kempton and whilst he will need to step forward a lot from that effort, the handicapper has given him a chance by dropping him to 136.


    The final one to mention is the bottom weight Top Cat Henry who won well at Wetherby when fitted with a visor for the first time last month. He drew readily clear in the closing stages under a patient ride and had a look at these fences in December when he finished sixth in the Grand Sefton. His jockey Sam Waley-Cohen has a fine record over these fences and has won this race twice in the last ten years including last year. He will probably need to step forward again to trouble those at the head of the weights but he could run better than his odds of 33/1 suggest.


    Shortlist


    Fairy Rath


    Ruben Cotter


    Top Cat Henry




    4.40 Aintree – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1)




    Very much like the equivalent race at Cheltenham, the Albert Bartlett, experience and staying power are the key elements. Only three of the last 23 winners had not run at least four times over hurdles and 18 of the last 21 had won at least twice over hurdles. Mystical Knight, Ami Desbois, the fairly well-fancied Balko Des Flos and Ghost River fall foul of both of these statistics, so it would be a shock were any of these four to win.


    Brian Ellison’s unbeaten Tomngerry and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyoptic both fall short of the four or more hurdle runs and could find themselves short of the required experience, while Potters Legend and Vintage Clouds don’t have the strike rate, with at least two wins over timber, which the trends suggest is needed.
    Interestingly, six of the last ten winners skipped the Cheltenham Festival altogether, while the four that didn’t all ran in the Albert Bartlett, so it would go against everything we’ve seen over the past ten years if Bellshill, Yala Enki or Baoulet Delaroque were to win this race after running in the Neptune and Coral Cup at the showpiece festival in March.


    With eleven horses already having these black marks against their name, we’ve narrowed things down significantly, but as with the equivalent race at Cheltenham, winning form over three miles is an advantage – that proven ability to stay the trip seems an obvious thing to be a positive, but with this being a race for novices, it’s not as common as in other three mile hurdle races. In fact, only three of the field have won over the trip, with Gangster and Sandymount Duke the two that satisfy the other trends as well.


    In fact, those two horses sit joint-top of the trends table and therefore make up two thirds of our shortlist for the race. Sandymount Duke is certainly the lesser-fancied runner of that pair and is still available at 25/1 in many places. Good ground and three miles is clearly the key to him and as long as the rains don’t come too much, he could well outrun his big price under Robbie Power.


    Gangster tops the trends and certainly won’t mind any rain, his three mile win came on heavy ground after all. Any Willie Mullins entry at a major festival needs respect and although his seventh-place finish in the Albert Bartlett wasn’t massively encouraging, it later came to light that he’d lost a shoe so it can be marked up a little. Only Balko Des Flos of the six in front of him that day reopposes, so on that form alone, he has to hold a good chance.


    To complete the shortlist, only failing on the stat of not winning over three miles, is the very well-fancied Ballydine who missed the Cheltenham festival after pushing Barters Hill all the way at Doncaster on his previous run. Charlie Longsdon’s charge looks versatile ground-wise and clearly can mix it with the best at this level, even though the race at Doncaster played into his hands, closing late off a fast pace. Although you should always be wary of the market leader in this big field race, with only five favourites ever winning, this is one that seems to hold great claims


    Shortlist


    Gangster


    Sandymount Duke


    Ballydine





    5.15 Aintree – Weatherbys Private Bank Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2)




    Despite the number of horse who take in both Cheltenham and Aintree over hurdles and fences, it might surprise you to learn that seven of the last ten winners of this race missed Cheltenham. Four of this year’s Champion Bumper field take part here including the first two home Ballyandy and Battleford, as well as the third Bacardys and Fergal O’Brien’s Pride Of Lecale, who finished thirteenth.


    The first two home at Cheltenham unsurprisingly dominate the betting with Willie Mullins’ runner Battleford narrowly preferred in the market, giving that he receives a pull in the weights with the winner Ballyandy. However, it is worth bearing in mind that the last winning favourite of this race was the four-year-old Theatrical Moment in 2007, so it might be best to look away from those at the head of the market.


    In terms of trainers worth following, Nigel Twiston-Davies stands out having saddled two of the last four winners. He saddles Ballyandy in this year’s renewal and whilst he has other trends to overcome as well as a weight burden, it is hard to leave the five-year-old off the shortlist.


    Ben Pauling won this race last year with Barters Hill and sends Willoughby Court here this time around. The five-year-old was really impressive when winning for the second time at Warwick in December and the form of that race is starting to work out well. It is hard to know how he figures with the horses with Graded form but he is clearly improving and can’t be dismissed despite his inexperience.


    Another one who could be worth taking a chance on could be Ian Williams’ Jam Session who wasn’t beaten far in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham in January. He missed the Cheltenham race in favour of waiting for this one and he should be suited by the step up to two miles here. As a four-year-old he receives weight from his elders and he could be another at a big price to outrun those odds.


    Shortlist


    Ballyandy


    Willoughby Court


    Jam Session

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (8th April 2016)  


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