SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2016

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The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 16th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. It often pays to avoid horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National, especially where there has only been a 7 day gap between the 2 races.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-3-10
7yo: 1-9-45
8yo: 2-6-57
9yo: 3-3-54
10yo: 1-5-48
11yo+: 3-4-44
Age of the winners has been fairly spread out.
In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time in 2012, also at age 11, while Wayward Lad made it three 11yo winners in last 7 years, when taking it in 2015. All three 11yo winners won on their last start over a trip in excess of 3M, all 3 posting an RPR of 140 in the process.

Breeding


French Bred: 4-7-62
Irish Bred: 3-18-142
British Bred: 3-4-48
American Bred: 0-1-3
Other: 0-0-3
French & GB bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from less than 43% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 0-1-20
horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-14
horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-10-58
horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 6-13-131
horses carrying 9-13 or less: 2-3-35
8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 64.3% of total runners.
Top Weight: 0P2PP6PP7P (0-1-10)
The 2 top weights to make the frame since 2004 had both previously finished in first 5 in this race.
horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-11-97
2 of last 3 horses to have carried a penalty in this have won it, the other unseated.

Official Ratings


horses rated 144 or higher: 1-7-48
horses rated 132 to 143: 7-21-165
horses rated 131 or below: 2-2-41
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower
In past 4 years, horses rated 132 to 140 have won all 4 and filled 13 of 16 places.
The last 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start but only carried 10-4. Both had posted a career high RPR of 149+ on previous start.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (exception unplaced over hurdles last time)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ in or all of their last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M 4F+ (2 exceptions did so in a 3M+ chase)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season


8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in a chase worth 45K+)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 to 4 chase but no higher in past 18 months
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 22 chases (2 exceptions placed in 4M Novice Chase at Cheltenham Festival)
2 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (7 others were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had first career run in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race

Aintree Festival


In the last 10 years 20 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing PPP000PU695P00PPP77 (0-0-19). All 19 were unplaced.
Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, unlike this year, where there is just a one week gap.

Other Races


Somerset National winner (Golden Chieftain): 1 (1-0-1)
7bets4free Novice Chase winner (Vivaldi Collonges): 1F (1-0-2)
Previous season's 4M NH Novice Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): F1U (1-0-3)
Welsh Grand National winner (Mountainous): 7P (0-0-2)
Betfair Home Of Price Rush H'cap Chase winner (Emperor's Choice): PP (0-0-2)
Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sausalito Sunrise): PP (0-0-2)
Record of first 3 from 4M NH Challenge Cup Novice Chase: PP1P16 (2-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 040221P27 (1-4-9)
Record of placed finishers from previous Scottish National: 0UP62071PP (1-1-12)
The Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase has thrown up some horses that have run well in this, in 2008 it was won by Merigo (Scottish National winner in 2010 & 2012) and in 2010 it was won by Auroras Encore (2012 Scottish National runner-up).
2 of 2 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Grimthorpe Chase, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in Cash Out in Running on Betfair H'cap Chase, finishing 7P
Since 2000 three winners had finished in first 7 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

Trainers


Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-4-10) trained the winner in 1992 & 1994 and more recently in 2009. He has seen 5 of his 10 runners in past 10 years make the places.
Alan King (1-3-11) trained Godsmejudge to win this in 2013 and also finish 2nd last year. He also saddled the 2nd & 4th in 2008.
Peter Bowen (1-1-12) won this with Al Co in 2014.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) has seen 3 of his 10 runners get placed.
David Pipe (0-2-11) in 2 of the last 3 renewals.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-3), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-5), Tom George (0-1-4), Venetia Williams (0-1-12) & Sue Smith (0-1-12) have all saddled a placed finisher since 2006.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-16) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 1 place from 16 runners.
Irish trained runners: F000BP8PF8P0PP9PP02 (0-1-19) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2006. Last Irish-trained winner was back in 1869, though Goonyella (2nd in 2015) went close to breaking that barren spell last year.
Tony Martin (0-0-1) trained the runner-up in 1999 and his one runner in past 10 years was Patsy Hall (brought down).

Racing Tactics


2 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)
3 of 10 winners ran behind the leader(s)
2 of 10 winners raced in midfield
3 of 10 winners were held up
4 of 10 winners led from before halfway.

Price


No strong trends on prices, there have been a few big shocks in past 10 years with a 25/1 winner in 2015, 40/1 winner in 2014, 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.
Favourite (0-4-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 7 to 9 (or a 10/11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 139+)
- French & GB bred horses have done well recently
- Carrying 10-6 or less
- Officially rated 143 or lower (ideally rated 132 to 140)
- Respect any horse carrying a penalty
- Run 3 to 6 times this season
- Finished in the first 6 last time
- Posted an RPR of 140+ in one or all of last 3 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Posted their career high RPR of 140+ in a chase over 3M 4F+
- Won a class 2 or 3 chase in last 18 months but no higher
- Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
- Run in 10 to 22 chases (or placed in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
- Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
- Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race
- Bypassed 2016 Aintree Grand National
- Respect horses that finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup
- Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time
- Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)