The Boylesports Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2015 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th April. This year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Sprinter Sacre, did the double in 2013 and might attempt it again this year.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-0-3
7yo: 1-1-6
8yo: 3-7-22
9yo: 1-3-23
10yo: 2-2-13
11yo+: 1-1-6
6yos have won the last 2 of the last 8 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 6 runnings since 2008.
All 3 winners aged 10+ had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in this race previously (Big Zeb & Sizing Europe (twice) had both finished in first 2 in this before winning this when aged 10+).

Breeding


Irish bred: 5-12-47
French bred: 5-2-16
British bred: 0-0-6
Other: 0-0-4
10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.
French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 5-1-11
French bred 9+: 0-1-5
Irish bred 6 to 8: 1-7-15
Irish bred 9+: 4-5-32


4 of 5 French bred winners began their NH career in an Auteuil Hurdle.

Recent/Past Form


6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 158+ last time out


10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase


8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners had won multiple grade 1 chases
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases that season (exception had won 1 grade 2 chase)
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exception were previous Queen Mother Champion Chase winner that had previously finished in first 2 in this race)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 2F or further

Other races


Defending Punchestown Champion Chaser (Felix Yonger): 5P432 (0-1-5)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 1121 (3-1-4)
Paddy Power So Quick So Easy Chase winner (Flemenstar): 3211326 (2-3-7)
Clarence House Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 1R1 (2-0-3)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Felix Younger): 314561 (2-0-6)
Previous season's Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 221 (1-2-3)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Felix Yonger): 36P4123 (1-2-7)
Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 4142 (1-1-4)
Webster Cup winner (Smashing): 1 (1-0-1)
Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 1 (1-0-1)
Red Mills Chase winner (Smashing): 15 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 2F3 (0-1-3)
Normans Grove Chase winner (Top Gamble): 2P7456 (0-1-6)
Paddy Power Over 260 Shops Nationwide Chase winner (Days Hotel): 6434 (0-0-4)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 16162214
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 1111 (including all 3 GB winners)
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power So Quick So Easy Chase, finishing 114
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 221
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 22
3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing 54
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 211
2 of 3 British-trained winners won previous year's Maghulls Novice Chase

Trainers


British based trainers (3-2-14) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 18.3% of the total runners. All 3 had won the Tingle Creek & finished in first 2 in Clarence House Chase that season.
Henry De Bromhead (2-3-7) has trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2012 & 2014 and be placed in 2010, 2011 & 2013.
Willie Mullins (2-0-10) trained the winner in 2001, 2010 & 2015.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-1) won this in 2013 with Sprinter Sacre, who is entered again.
Mouse Morris (0-2-4) saddled the runner-up in 2006 & 2015.

Price


9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below
All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 but show a £1 level stakes loss of £1.22.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+
- Run in the past 50 days
- Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)
- Posted an RPR of 166+ last time
- Won a grade 1 chase (preferably multiple grade 1’s)
- Has run 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice
- Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four
- Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)
- Finished in the first 6 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
- Won the Tingle Creek, Hilly Way, Gowran Champion and/or PP So Quick So Easy Chase
- Finished in first 2 in Tied Cottage and/or Clarence House Chase
- Won a chase over 2M 2F+
- Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins or Henry De Bromhead
- Priced 7/1 or lower.