POULE D'ESSAI DES POULAINS TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman2]

The Poule d'Essai des Poulains (the French equivalent of the 2000 Guineas) takes place on Sunday 15th May. Due to Longchamp being closed this year, the race has been moved to Deauville. It is a race that was won 6 times by the Godolphin and Ballydoyle operations between 2000 & 2007, though the home team have taken the last 8 runnings.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


American bred: 3-4-28
Irish bred: 3-7-53
French bred: 2-5-33
British bred: 1-3-24
Japanese bred: 1-0-3
German bred: 0-1-3
American bred horses have won 4 of last 11 from around 20% of total runners
7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (1 exception by Danzig who won all 3 career starts before an injury ended his career prematurely, other exception by Verglas, who was 2nd in Irish 2000 Guineas)
6 of 10 winners were by a sire who won or placed in a group 1 over 5F to 1M (1 exception was Danzig and 2 others’ sires had finished in first 2 in the Arc)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were born in January or February

Recent Form


9 of 10 winners won on one or both of their first 2 runs as a 2yo


10 of 10 winners had had between 3 and 8 career starts
9 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 previous runs that season (exception had 3, only 1 on turf)
10 of 10 winners had last run between 15 and 40 days ago


8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions trained by Aidan O'Brien were unplaced in Prix Fontainebleau)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 108+ on last turf start


7 of 10 winners ran at Longchamp last time out
All 3 Godolphin winners since 2000 ran in UAE Derby or UAE 2000 Guineas on previous start
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 6 were having first try in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
4 of 8 French trained winners had won at Longchamp over 7F or 8F (1 exception was 2nd in 7F group 1 and 3rd in 1M group 3 on two course starts & other 3 were having first run here)

Other Races
Prix De Fontainebleau winner (Dicton): 391098 (1-1-6)
Prix de Saint-Desir Maiden winner (Zarak): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix La Rochette winner (Attendu): 41 (1-0-2)
Prix Omnium winner (Dictor): 66168 (1-0-5)
Superlative Stakes winner (Birchwood): 0 (0-0-1)
Horris Hill Stakes winner (Crazy horse): 00 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Fontainebleau last time out, finishing 4d61332
3 of 8 French-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 421
2 of 8 French-trained winners ran in Prix Djebel last time, finishing 12
2 of 8 French-trained winners ran in Prix Omnium, finishing 12
2 of 8 French-trained winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 72
2 of 8 French-trained winners (2 of last 3) ran in Prix Francois Boutin, finishing 12
2 of last 3 non-French-trained winners ran in the Vintage Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (2-4-20) has won 3 of the last 14 renewals and seen 6 of his 20 have made the frame in past 10 years.
Andre Fabre (2-3-10) trained the winner in 2003 & 2010 and also saddled the 1-2 last year.
Carlos Laffon-Parias (1-0-2) trained the winner in 2008.
Jean Claude Rouget (0-2-12) has managed 2 places from 12 runners since 2006.
Irish trained runners (2-5-24) have won 2 of the last 10, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record reads 0-1-4.
British based trainers (0-3-37) have failed to win any of the last 10 despite having represented 25.7% of the total runners.

Price


No really strong trends on prices with the 4 winners between 2003 and 2006 all going off shorter than 7/1 and the next 6 winners going off 33/1, 21.5/1, 7/1, 10/1, 10/1 & 33/1. The 2014 winners was first winning favourite since 2005.
Favourites (1-3-11) have gained just 1 win in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- American breds do well
- Sire won a group 1 over 5F to 1M (or placed in an Arc)
- Ideally born in January or February of 2013
- Had 3 to 8 career starts
- Won one or both of first two starts as a 2yo
- Ran at Longchamp last time out
- Had last run between 15 and 40 days ago
- Posted an RPR of 108+ on last turf start
- Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (or having first try in a G1)
- Won over 7F or 8F (ideally at Longchamp)
- Finished in first 4 in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere and/or Vintage Stakes as a 2yo
- Finished in first 2 in Prix Omnium II and/or Francois Boutin
- Finished in first 3 in the Prix De Fontainebleau or Prix Djebel last time out
- Trained in France (ideally by Andre Fabre) or by Aidan O’Brien.