The Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Saturday 21st May. In recent times Aidan O達rien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 10 of the last 19 runnings, with the other 9 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Vincent O達rien in 1988 was last Irish-based trainer (other than Aidan O達rien) to have won the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


Irish bred: 7-13-61
British bred: 2-4-22
American bred: 1-2-17
Galileo progeny: 6291611 (3-1-7)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were sired by a group 1 winner
7 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winners over 6F to 1M (3 exceptions by Galileo)

Recent/Past Form


7 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 7 career starts
10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ in last 2 starts


10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group race (other placed in group company)
8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a group 1 (1 exception yet to run in a group 1)
5 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (4 of 5 exceptions were having their first course start & other was 2nd in group 1 here)
3 of 4 British-trained runners finished 1st or 2nd in a Newmarket maiden on debut as 2yos

2yo Races


National Stakes winner (Air Force Blue): 22111 (3-2-5)
Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden winner (Sanus Per Aquam): 411 (2-0-3)
Phoenix Stakes winner (Air Force Blue): 21 (1-1-2)
Killavullan Stakes winner (Blue De Vega): 7422 (0-2-4)
Futurity Stakes winner (Herald The Dawn): 251 (1-1-3)
Big Bad Bob European Breeders Fund maiden winner (Air Force Blue): 3 (0-1-1)
Dewhurst winner (Air Force Blue): 24 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 111
3 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in National Stakes, finishing 111
3 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 212
3 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 221
2 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in the Futurity Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 41d
2 of 6 O'Brien-trained winners ran in Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden, finishing 11

3yo Races


English 2000 Guineas winner (Galileo Gold): 2111 (3-1-4)
Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 16432851206821 (3-3-14)
Highest placed finisher from the 2000 Guineas: 2118126811 (5-2-10)
Tetrarch Stakes winner (Awtaad): 32295 (0-3-5)
9 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 411530021
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 21

Trainers


10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O達rien or in Great Britain
Aidan O達rien (6-5-35) has won 6 of the last 10 however his runners have made up 35% of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years. Record of his first string is 6-1-10. 5 of 6 Aidan O達rien-trained winners had won their maiden at Curragh as 2yos.
British-trained runners (4-5-21) have won 5 of the past 11 runnings of this race from approximately 21% of the total runners.
Jim Bolger (0-4-6) has seen 5 of his last 7 runners make the places.
Kevin Prendergast (0-1-4) trained the 3rd in 2006.

Draw (excluding 2008 when there was only 5 runners)
Bottom Half: 8-10-50
Top Half: 1-8-45
Only 1 winner in past 10 years has been drawn higher than stall 6.

Price


10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 10 but show a level stakes profit of 1.45 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F (or by Galileo)
- Had 4 to 7 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2016)
- Posted an RPR of 113+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 7F to 1M
- Previously won a group race
- Finished in first 2 in a group 1
- Course winner or having first Curragh start
- Finished in first 2 in Dewhurst, Coventry, National and/or Phoenix Stakes as 2yo
- Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time (ideally finishing in first 5)
- Trained by Aidan O達rien or in Great Britain
- Drawn in bottom half (ideally 6 or lower)
- From first 4 in the betting.