The Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 22nd May. Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of this 6 times, however only once with his first string.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yo fillies

Breeding


Irish bred: 9-12-99
British bred: 1-4-25
American bred: 0-4-16
German bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner
6 of 10 winners were by a horse that never won over further than a mile (3 of 4 exceptions were by Galileo)
Galileo progeny: 1030742179102 (3-3-13)
Record horses with damsire Storm Cat: 011 (2-0-3)

Recent/Past Form


Only 3 of 10 winners had won last time out (4 were unplaced last time)
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 previous starts (exception had 8)
9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+
7 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception finished 3rd in a group 1 and other 2 had run just twice before)
6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a group 1 (4 exceptions yet to run in a group 1)

2yo Races


Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Ballydoyle): 112 (2-1-3)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Minding): 5191 (2-0-4)
Debutante Stakes winner (Ballydoyle): 81530 (1-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Debutante Stakes: 841537040 (1-1-9)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Tanaza): 59270 (0-1-5)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Tanaza): 592094 (0-1-6)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Anamba): 46 (0-0-2)
C. L. Weld Park Stakes winner (Coolmore): 0085070 (0-0-7)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Marcel Boussac, finishing 101
2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Debutante Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11

3yo Races


English 1000 Guineas winner (Minding): 14 (1-0-2)
Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 1000 Guineas: 066050002120 (1-2-12)
Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Now Or Never): 34310730 (1-3-8)
Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (Jet Setting): 003047 (0-1-6)
Salsabil Stakes winner (Pretty Perfect): 5 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 102
3 of 10 winners ran in the French 1000 Guineas last time out, finishing 239
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 26

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-5-31) has won 3 of the last 10 however he has sent out 31 runners in the race in the past 10 years (approximately 24.1% of total runners). His first strings have a poor record of 0-3-10.
Dermot Weld (2-3-15) has won the race twice in past 10 years. Both his winners were unplaced in a Curragh maiden on their one run at 2. Both won their previous start and bypassed the French and English 1000 Guineas to run in this (2 of the only 4 winners since 2003 to do so).
Jim Bolger (2-3-17) has saddled the winner in 2007 & 2015.
Mick Channon (1-2-8) trained the winner in 2012.
Willie McCreery (0-1-1) trained the 3rd in 2015.
British-trained runners (2-3-24) have won 3 of last 12 from 20% of the total runners.

Draw


horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-8-40
horses drawn 5 to 8: 1-9-40
horses drawn 9 to 12: 3-1-34
horses drawn 13 or higher: 3-2-27
No very strong trend on the draw, though horses drawn in stall 1 have done well.
Since 2000, the record of horses drawn in stall 1: 243151122d4082027 (3-5-16)

Racing Tactics


7 of 10 winners raced prominently (in first 6) throughout
2 of the 3 winners that were held up, did so on soft or heavy ground.
The 3 winners to come further back both did so from a double-figure stall.

Price


No very strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off shorter than 7/1 and the other 4 going between 10/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of last 10 & show a £1 level stakes loss of £1.60 since 2006.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner over 1M or shorter (or by Galileo)
- Fillies sired by Galileo & have Storm Cat as damsire do well
- Run once or twice in 2016
- Won over 7F or further
- Won a listed or group race
- Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first try in group 1)
- First 3 in Marcel Boussac, Debutante, Rockfel and/or Moyglare Stud Stakes as 2yo
- Ran in English or French 1000 Guineas last time (or from Weld stable)
- Trained by Dermot Weld, Jim Bolger or Aidan O’Brien (but not necessarily his first string)
- British-trained runner that won at 2015 Royal Ascot or won Fillies Mile
- Tends to race prominently.