TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman2]

The Tattersalls Gold Cup takes place on the undercard of the Curragh’s 1000 Guineas day on Sunday 22nd May. It’s a group 1 race run over 1M 2½F and has been won by some top class horses since the start of the turn of the millennium, including Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Hurricane Run and So You Think.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
4yo: 5-7-30
5yo: 4-0-11
6yo: 0-1-9
7yo+: 1-1-4
Al Kazeem, in 2015, became the first winner aged older than 6 in past 35 years.

Gender
The 10 mares to run in this race have finished: 2862334443 (0-1-10)

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 1 to 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ last time
10 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F+
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exceptions had been 2nd in a group 1 & other 2 had yet to run in a group 1)
6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (3 exceptions having first course start & other finished 2nd in previous year's Irish Derby here)
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 116 or higher

Other Races
Previous season's Derrinstown Stud winner (Success Days): 2112 (2-2-4)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Found): 11222 (2-2-5)
Previous year's Ballysax Stakes winner (Success Days): 412 (1-1-3)
Breeders' Cup Turf winner (Found): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Dance Design Stakes winner (Bocca Baciata): 34 (0-0-2)
3 of 4 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Irish Derby, finishing 121
2 of 4 winners aged 4 ran in the previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 32
2 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in Prince Of Wales' Stakes, finishing 52
2 of 6 winners aged 5+ ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 21
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Arc, finishing 1640
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 2215
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Champion Stakes, finishing 8622
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Ganay last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International Stakes, finishing 14
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes that season, finishing 411
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 14

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-2-14) has won 6 of the last 13 runnings of this race and didn’t have a runner last year.
Dermot Weld (1-3-7) trained the winner in 2005, saddled the first two home in 2009 and also saddled the runner-up in 2012 & 2015.
Roger Charlton (2-0-2) won this with Al Kazeem in 2013 & 2015.
British-trained runners (4-2-11) have won 4 of last 10 from 16.7% of total runners, 3 of 4 had run in the Gordon Richards earlier that season.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter
Nine runners has been the biggest field for this race since 2006 so it’s no surprise that all winners have been short enough in the betting.
Favourites (6-3-11) have won 6 of the last 10 however they show a £1 level stakes loss of £2.57 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Fillies & mares have a poor record
- Had 1 to 3 runs in 2016
- Posted an RPR of 114+ last time out
- Won over 1M 2F or further
- Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Officially rated 116+
- 4yo that finished in first 3 in the Irish and/or Epsom Derby’s last season
- Ran in last season’s Arc, Champion Stakes and/or Irish Champion Stakes
- British trained that ran in Gordon Richards Stakes this season
- Won the Prix Ganay, Moorsebridge or Gordon Richards Stakes last time
- Trained by Dermot Weld, Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
- Priced 7/1 or below