This year’s Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 4th June. In the past 10 years the Dante and 2000 Guineas have proven the key trials for the race, with 8 of last 10 winners having finished in first three in one of those 2 races.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding


British bred: 5-10-56
Irish bred: 5-7-57
American bred: 0-3-14
German bred: 0-0-4
French bred: 0-0-6
Last 9 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+


10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
6 of 10 winners were out of a mare that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (3 of 4 others were out of an unraced mare, other was placed in a listed as a 3yo).
Sons of Galileo: 70950109745202738643100014 (3-4-26)
Sons of Montjeu: 008010065027486191007 (3-1-21)
Sons of Cape Cross: 181 (2-0-3)
Sons of Sea The Stars: 3 (0-1-1)
Sons of New Approach: 020 (0-1-3)

Dosage Profile


Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.08
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.22

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that year
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that year
6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
4 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (6 exceptions didn't run in a group 1 as a juvenile)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
8 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
4 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (5 exceptions finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
8 of 9 winners that ran as 2yos had first run over 7F or 8F (6 of those 8 at a group 1 track)
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 37 times before winning the race. In those 37 starts they had finished outside the first 3 only twice, both occasions were on their racecourse debut as 2yo.

2yo Form


Beresford Stakes winner (Port Douglas): 020140 (1-1-6)
Tyros Stakes winner (Deauville): 14 (1-0-2)
Eyrefield Stakes winner (Moonlight Magic): 06 (0-0-2)
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh in July, finishing 141
2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11

3yo Form


Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 110451 (3-0-6)
Dante Stakes winner (Wings Of Desire): 01203621 (2-3-8)
Chester Vase winner (Us Army Ranger): 054502507 (1-1-10)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (US Army Ranger): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Cloth Of Stars): 51 (1-0-2)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Moonlight Magic): 303256480 (0-3-9)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Algometer): 033 (0-2-3)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Midterm): 006 (0-0-3)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Cloth Of Stars): 9367026 (0-2-7)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Awtaad): 3 (0-1-1)
Ballysax Stakes winner (Harzand): 2480 (0-1-4)
Galinule Stakes winner (Beacon Rock): 04 (0-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 22113
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 121

Trainers


Irish-trained runners: 5-9-54
British-trained runners: 4-11-74
French-trained runners: 1-0-7
German-trained: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (3-7-44) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but went 9 years without a win before landing the 3 renewals between 2012 & 2014 with Camelot, Ruler Of The World & Australia.
Michael Stoute (1-3-7) has won the race 3 times since 2002 and his first strings have a record that reads 2110212 (3-3-7) since 2000.
John Gosden (1-2-7) saddled the 1-2 home last year and also the 3rd in 2014.
Jim Bolger (1-0-3) and Andre Fabre (1-0-4) have also won the race in the past 10 years.
David Lanigan (0-1-1) & Dermot Weld (0-1-2) have both saddled 1 placed finisher since 2006.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-4) gained his only win in the race with Lammtarra in 1995 but has seen all 4 of his runners in past 10 years finish unplaced.
Pour Moi in 2011 became first French-trained winner since 1976. In the past 50 years there have been 4 French-trained winners. 3 of the 4 ran in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as 2yos and all 4 had either won the Prix Gruffelhe or finished in first 4 in Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).



Racing Tactics


9 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
The only exception was Sea The Stars (in 2009) who was keen and settled in 4th.

Price


10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 7/1 or below.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 but show a small level stakes profit of 1.1.3 since 2006.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+
- Sons of Montjeu, Cape Cross & Galileo do well
- Out of a mare that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (or was unraced)
- Approximate Dosage index of 1.08
- Approximate Centre of Distribution of 0.22
- Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
- Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
- Run once or twice in 2016
- Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
- Had run in the past 35 days
- Won last time out (or finished 2nd/3rd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
- Posted an RPR of 112+ last time (ideally posted RPR of 118+ last time)
- Previously won a group race
- Had won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
- Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
- Won over 1M 2F as a 3yo (or finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas)
- Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
- Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as a 3yo
- Hold up horses favoured
- Trained by Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
- Priced 7/1 or below.