CORONATION CUP TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman2]

The Investec Coronation Cup takes place on the supporting card of Epsom Derby day on Saturday 4th June. It is a group 1 run over 1M 4F for horses aged 4 or older. With a very decent prize on offer, it usually attracts some of the best middle distance horses in Europe, with recent winners including Fame And Glory, St Nicholas Abbey and Cirrus Des Aigles.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





Age
4yo: 3-6-33
5yo: 4-3-22
6yo: 2-2-9
7yo+: 1-1-4
No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages.
4yo winners usually ran well in a European Derby the previous season (2 of the last 4 winners aged 4 had won the Irish Derby, Yeats who won 2 Derby trials but a setback meant he missed the rest of the season and St Nicholas Abbey was favourite for the Derby before being pulled out due to injury).

Breeding


9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
9 of 10 winners were by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Irish, French or German Derby’s
7 of 10 winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells (Montjeu x 5, Sadler’s Wells x 1 & Galileo x 1)
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 11.2F+

Gender


Fillies and mares (0-5-14) last won the race in 1984 but have found 5 places from 14 runners in the past 10 years.

Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group race last time (exceptions was 5th in Arc)
7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 121+ last time (2 others posted RPR of 117+ on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had won group 2)

Other Races (previous season)


Breeders Cup Turf winner (Found): 11 (2-0-2)
Cumberland Lodge Stakes winner (Star Storm): 41 (1-0-2)
St Leger winner (Simple Verse): 73 (0-0-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in last season's Prix De l'Arc, finishing 456650
4 of 7 winners aged 5+ ran in last season's King George, finishing 5334
4 of 7 winners aged 5+ ran in last season's Breeders Cup Turf, finishing 1513
3 of 10 winners ran in Champion Stakes, finishing 627
2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Epsom Derby, finishing 52
2 of 3 winners aged 4 won previous season's Irish Derby
2 of 10 winners ran in last season's Prix Foy, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 23

Other Races (that season)


Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Found): 21 (1-1-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Postponed): 612 (1-0-3)
3 of 7 winners aged 5+ ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 212
2 of 10 winners ran in the Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Ormonde Stakes last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Stakes last time, finishing 13
2 of 3 winners aged 4 (last 2) ran in Alleged Stakes, finishing 33

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (6-2-14) has won 7 of the last 11 runnings of this and he didn’t have a runner in last 2 renewals.
French-trained runners (2-2-9) have gained 2 wins and 3 seconds from 9 runners.
Ralph Beckett (0-1-2) saddled the runner-up in 2009.

Price


9 of 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or below
Last year’s winner, Pether’s Moon at 11/1, has been longest priced winner in last 10 years.
Favourites (6-1-10) have 6 of the last 10 and show a £1 level stakes profit of £0.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Sire with a stamina index of 11.0F+ that won a group 1 over 1M 2F+ (ideally by Montjeu)
- Has had a run in 2016
- Finished in first 3 in a group race last time
- Ran in Yorkshire Cup, Jockey Club, Mooresbridge, Ormonde Stakes or Longchamp group 1 last time
- Posted an RPR of 117+ in last 2 runs (ideally last time)
- Won a group 1 or 2 over 1M 4F+
- Ran in the Epsom and/or Irish Derby as a 3yo
- Finished in first 6 in 2015 Arc, Champion Stakes, King George and/or Breeders Cup Turf
- Finished in first 3 in Sheema Classic, Mooresbridge, Jockey Club and/or Alleged Stakes in 2016
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in France
- Priced 8/1 or shorter.

[akimba]

I am near Epsom on the Friday night and looked to see if worth getting tickets to go to the Epsom Derby but they are pretty expensive :-(