FALMOUTH STAKES TRENDS 2016

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The Tattersalls 250th Year Falmouth Stakes is the big race on the second day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Friday 8th July. The race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and is run over a mile for fillies of 3 and older. It is the first chance to see the female Classic generation of milers take on their older rivals at the highest level.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Wins-Places-Runners)
3yo: 4-5-31
4yo: 6-3-34
5yo: 0-3-9
6yo+: 0-3-6
Last 10 winners were aged 3 or 4, though they have represented 81.3% of total runners.
The last winner aged older than 4 was Soviet Song in 2005, who had won the previous year’s renewal.

Recent Form
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 106+ in one or both of last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run between 1 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
7 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 last time (2 others won the group 2 Duke Of Cambridge)
6 of 10 winners ran at Royal meeting on their last start (3 Coronation Stakes, 2 Duke Of Cambridge & 1 Queen Anne)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in 1000 Guineas here)
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions had won a listed race)
4 of 4 three-year-old winners had won a listed or group race as a 2yo
Since 1996 there have been 11 renewals which featured a filly (trained outside GB & Ire) that had previously achieved an RPR of 110+ and they won 5 of those 11 runnings.

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Amazing Maria): 63 (0-0-2)
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Usherette): 6434011 (2-1-7)
Previous year's Prix Rothschild winner (Amazing Maria): 11 (2-0-2)
Dahlia Stakes winner (Usherette): 3246 (0-2-4)
Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Ballydoyle): 2 (0-1-1)
Chartwell Fillies Stakes winner (Ashadihan): 56 (0-0-2)
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in English 1000 Guineas, finishing 356
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Coronation Stakes, finishing 564
3 of 6 winners aged 4 finished in first 4 at Royal Ascot last time
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in Duke Of Cambridge last time, finishing 11
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Sun Chariot, finishing 22
2 of 6 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix Rothschild, finishing 11

Trainers
British-trained: 8-11-55
French trained: 2-2-11
S African trained: 0-1-2
Irish trained: 0-0-10
Other: 0-0-2
David O’Meara (1-0-1) won this with Amazing Maria in 2015.
Marco Botti (0-1-1) saddled Euro Charline to finish 2nd last year.
Jim Bolger (0-0-3) saddled the runner-up in 2005 but his 3 runners in past 10 years have all been unplaced.
Andre Fabre (0-0-2) & Aidan O'Brien (0-0-2) have also both seen their 2 runners in this in past 10 years finish out of the places.

Price
No major trend on prices. 5 of 10 winners went off shorter than 7/1 though other 5 winners have gone off 50/1, 10/1, 16/1, 10/1 & 17/2.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 renewals. They show a level stakes loss of 4.37 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 or a 3yo that won a class 1 race as a 2yo
- Run 1 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 106+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Ran in a group 1 or 2 last time in past 60 days
- Has won over a mile
- Won a group race
- Finished in first 5 in a group 1
- 3yo that finished in first 6 in both 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes
- 4yo+ that finished in first 4 at Royal Ascot last time
- Finished in first 5 in Prix Rothschild and/or Sun Chariot in 2015
- French-trained runners have a fair record