PRINCESS OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2016

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The Princess Of Wales’s Arcana Racing Club Stakes is the highlight of the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting, on Thursday 7th July. A group 2 run over a mile and a half for three-year-olds and older, it is a race Michael Stoute has done extremely well in recently, winning 5 of the last 11.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 1-2-6
4yo: 7-5-37
5yo: 0-4-15
6yo+: 2-3-16
4yos have won 7 of last 10, though they have represented almost half the total runners.
5 of last 6 winners aged 5+ had finished in first 3 in a previous running of this race.
The only 3yo winner in past 10 years came in a sub-par renewal with just 4 runners (both 3yo winners in past 15 years were trained by Mark Johnston).

Penalties
horses carry a 3lb penalty for group 2 win & a 5lb penalty for a group 1 win after 31/10/15.
Record of horses carrying a 5lb penalty: 021 (1-1-3)
Record of horses carrying a 3lb penalty: 34152 (1-1-5)

Recent Form
9 of 10 winners had had at least 2 previous starts that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 race last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts (1 exceptions posted a career high RPR on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over a 1M 4F+ (1 exception had finished 2nd in previous year's Gordon & King Edward Stakes and other was 4th in Hardwicke on previous start)
7 of 10 winners had won group race (2 of 3 exceptions were twice placed in group company)
4 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (5 of 6 others had not contested a group 1)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Big Orange): 2 (0-1-1)
Jockey Club Stakes winner (Exosphere): 012 (1-1-3)
Buckhounds Stakes winner (Elite Army): 9 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, finishing 7463
3 of 10 winners ran in the Jockey Club Stakes, finishing 461
3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous Epsom Derby or St Leger
3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's King Edward VII Stakes, finishing 122
2 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in the Huxley Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in the Brigadier Gerrard, finishing 50
2 of 7 winners aged 4 won the previous year's Chester Vase

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently throughout (all 6 did so in fields of 8 or fewer)
4 of 10 winners were held up (all 4 did so in fields of 8 or more)

Trainers
Michael Stoute (4-3-11) has trained 5 of the last 11 winners of this and also saddled the runner-up in 2008 & 2014 and 3rd in 2015.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-3-11) trained Cavalryman to win this in 2014.
Michael Bell (1-0-2) saddled Big Orange to win this at 25/1 last year and Luca Cumani (0-1-5) trained 2nd in 2015.

Price
No strong trends on prices.
Favourites (1-3-10) have a poor record in this race, prior to 2013, you had to go back to 2002 for last winning market leader.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 that ran in 2015 Leger or Derby and/or finished in first 2 in King Edward
- Aged 5+ that had finished in first 3 in previous renewal of this
- Run at least twice this year
- Ran in a group race in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
- Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in multiple group races over 1M 4F)
- Previously won a group race
- Finished in first 5 in a group 1 (or yet to run in a group 1)
- Previously won or placed at Newmarket
- Finished in first 6 in the Hardwicke last time out
- Ran in Jockey Club, Huxley and/or Brigadier Gerard in 2016
- Trained by Michael Stoute
- Tends to race prominently, ideally make all (if field is fewer than 8)