The Gigaset International Stakes is a 7F class 2 handicap which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 23rd July, on the supporting card of the King George. Trends point towards 4 or 5 year olds that are still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot or in Bunbury Cup, 9 of last 10 winners had run in the Royal Hunt Cup, Buckingham Palace or Bunbury Cup. Mark Johnston & Richard Fahey have provided 5 of last 10 winners, including last 3.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 0-3-22
4yo: 7-13-86
5yo: 3-6-51
6yo+: 0-8-83
The last 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
The last 4 winners aged 5 were New Seeker (won the race as a 3yo), Castles In The Air (won a handicap at this meeting the previous year), Field Of Dream (placed in Royal Hunt Cup at that year’s Royal meeting) and Heaven’s Guest (placed in previous year’s race).
horses aged 6+ have a poor record, failing to win this race in past 10 years despite accounting for over 34.3% of the total runners.

Breeding
Oasis Dream: 10071001050 (3-0-11) has sired 3 of the last 6 winners.
Dark Angel progeny: 00421 (1-2-5)

Weight
horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-2-10
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-6-54
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-11-104
horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-12-74
6 of last 7 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-1.
Top Weight: 0810300007 (1-1-10)
horses carrying a penalty: 009541020400003080054104198 (3-6-27)

Official Ratings
horses rated 101 or higher: 2-7-54
horses rated 93 to 100: 5-15-117
horses rated 92 or lower: 2-8-71
7 of last 8 winners have been officially rated 95 to 104

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won or placed last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap at Royal Ascot or July Meeting)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 99+ in last 3 outings
10 of 10 winners ran in past 40 days
6 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot or July Meeting last time (3 exceptions did so on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 race last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season
10 of 10 winners had had at least 4 previous runs that year
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (3 exceptions placed in a class 2 handicap)
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a class 2 handicap worth over 30K that season (exception won a class 2 handicap worth 16K last time)

Big Field Form
8 of 10 winners had won a race with 12+ runners (1 exceptions placed in 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup earlier that season)
9 of 10 winners won or placed in a race with 15+ runners, clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has experienced and run well in a competitive big-field handicap. The only exception was a previous group 2 winner.

Other Races
Last season's winner (Heaven's Guest): 6008705 (0-0-7)
H Jarvis 137th Anniversary Handicap winner (Nuno Tristan): 0013 (1-1-4)
Victoria Cup winner (Flash Fire): 000400 (0-1-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 0520
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 004
3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing U00
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Shergar Cup Sprint, finishing 225
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer H'cap, finishing 280
3 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup last time, finishing 003
3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Challenge Cup, finishing 083
2 of 10 winners ran in Ladbrokes H'cap at Doncaster, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Woodhurst Contruction Benz H'cap, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in RIU Palace Meloneras Handicap, finishing 12
2 of 3 Mark Johnston-trained winners (last 2) ran in H Jarvis Anniversary H'cap, finishing 31
2 of 3 Mark Johnston-trained winners (last 2) ran in Betfred Deaton Selaval H'cap, finishing 80

Trainers
Mark Johnston (3-0-16) trained the winners 2008, 2013 & 2014, all 3 were 4yos that had run in a 7½F class 2 handicap at Chester, in August/September of previous year. Last 2 winners had run in previous year’s Shergar Cup Sprint and also in H Jarvis Anniversary Handicap at Redcar.
Richard Fahey (2-1-14) trained the winner in 2010 & 2015 and a placed finisher in 2014.
Jamie Osbourne (1-0-3) trained the winner in 2012, his other 3 runners since 2000 were 3rd in 2003, 5th in 2013 & 26th in 2014.
Brian Ellison (0-3-5) & David Simcock (0-2-5) have each seen 4 of their 5 runners make the first 7.
Richard Hannon (0-2-3) & Kevin Ryan (0-2-10) both seen 2 of their representatives make the places.
Clive Cox (0-0-1) trained New Seeker to win this in 2003 & 2005.

Draw
horses drawn 1-10: 5-12-100
horses drawn 11-20: 1-14-100
horses drawn 21 or higher: 4-3-42
9 of 10 winners have either been drawn low (1 to 10) or high (21 or higher).
horses drawn 21 or higher have won 4 of last 10 at Ascot, including 3 of last 4 in which there were over 20 runners, from less than 18% of total runners.

Price
Heaven’s Guest, at 7/1 in 2015, broke the run of longer priced winners, as previous 7 winners had gone off 18/1, 40/1, 14/1, 16/1, 25/1, 33/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (0-1-15) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 1 of the 15 (joint/co) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 or 5
- Ideally sired by Oasis Dream or Dark Angel
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-1
- Officially rated 95 to 104
- Had run at least 4 times already in 2016
- Ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap in past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 99+ in last 3 runs
- Won a race this season (or placed in a race worth 40K+)
- Won over 7F
- Won at class 3 level or higher
- Placed in a class 1 or 2 race
- Won a handicap with 12+ runners (& won or placed in a 15+ runner h’cap)
- Contested a class 2 handicap worth 30K+ in 2016
- Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace or Royal Hunt Cup)
- Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season
- Ran in Shergar Cup Sprint, Challenge Cup or Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer H'cap in 2015
- Trained by Mark Johnston, Brian Ellison, Richard Fahey or Jamie Osbourne
- Drawn 21 or higher