The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 5 OF 5

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2.00 Goodwood – The Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes (Handicap)




With winners priced in between 7/1 and 28/1 in the last ten years, this race is clearly a bit of a pinstickers’ special and you’re going to need a bit of luck to win. Firstly, we’ll have to be ruthless with some solid trends so that we can cut the 28-strong field down to a more manageable shortlist. No winner of the race in the last ten years has carried less than 9-0, so that’s the bottom eight ruled out, just 20 to go.


All of the last ten winners had shown their well-being in the season and had been placed on at least one of their last four starts, which takes another six out and leaves us with 14, so we need another few eliminators. All of the last ten winners had nine or more runs in a handicap under their belts, so this is one of those messy, big-field affairs where experience can count for a lot – three more fall by the wayside here, including Ryan Moore’s mount, Projection and Jamie Spencer’s ride, Shamshon.


Also, all of the last ten winners had been placed at least four times in handicaps previously, so we lose two of Richard Fahey’s contenders, Ballymore Castle and Grandad’s World, as well as Misterioso. No winner in the last ten years has won this after winning last time out, so that’s Soie D’Leau off the list and, finally, every one of the last ten winners had also experienced the unique test that is Goodwood at least once before, scratching Nuno Tristan and Mukaynis.


So we’re down to the final five now and, interestingly, Paul Midgley trains two of them. Gamesome has been rated as high as 100 once upon a time, and came close to taking advantage of his lower mark of 93 when finishing second on his last two runs, however, combining the fact he’s gone back up to 97 again now and his overall record of just one win in 16 races, he will most likely come up a bit short once again.


Related is Midgley’s other contender and after a period in the doldrums, a third placed finish on his last run in the competitive Sky Bet Dash Stakes at York could well signal a return to form. He’s well-handicapped on last year’s form, where he was a four-length ninth to Magical Memory in the Stewards’ Cup off a mark of 97. He’s rated 90 now and must hold good claims here given his prominent running style and decent draw in 7; however, he does seem to lack the finishing speed to close out his races and could again see a couple fly past in the final furlong, even though he should run a good race.


George Baker’s Muir Lodge has been progressive over the last 12 months, going from a mark of 84 to his current perch of 93 and while he ran ok off the highest mark of his career at Windsor, he was disappointing next time at Newmarket over seven furlongs. Reverting to this shorter trip should help but even though he’s run at Goodwood three times previously, I’m not sure he enjoys the track and combined with this career-high mark, I’ll pass him over here.


Hoof It has been a hugely consistent, creditable performer in many of the top six furlong handicaps around the country for a long time now – he has a Stewards’ Cup win to his name in 2011. His last run behind the current favourite for the Stewards’ Cup, Orion’s Bow, was a very decent effort behind a very progressive rival and off just 1lb higher here, he has to have decent claims for a Trainer/Jockey partnership in Michael Easterby and Nathan Evans who have already won plenty this season, including the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh with the same owners’ Hoofalong. He was 12th in this race last season off the same mark though, so even though he’s in better form going into this race than last year, he’ll have to run a belter under a big weight (aided by Evans’ 5lb claim) to get involved.


The horse that’s left sat at the top of my list was in fact one place behind the earlier mentioned Related at York in the Sky Bet Dash Stakes, but receives the good end of a 3lb swing in the weights from that run and could reverse the form with that rival. It is of course David Barron’s FAST TRACK that I’m talking about and this son of Rail Link has now been dropped to 90, his lowest mark since his last win, all the way back in July 2014, where he beat the classy Eastern Impact off 87 at the July Course, no mean feat given that horse loves the track. Obviously it is a concern that the horse hasn’t won since then, but he has finished second three times since then in good handicaps, so he’s come close plenty of times. Last year, the gelding finished sixth in this race off a mark of 96, just three lengths behind Golden Steps, so off 7lbs lower and after the run at York showing he’s in good form once again (just 3 lengths behind the in-form Kimberella), he’s surely got a huge chance of being involved at a decent price. Five-year-olds also have the best record of any age group in the last ten renewals of the race, with three victories, so he fits the profile of a winner of this race well – from stall 19, I’m expecting a big run.




MY Advice




FAST TRACK 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)







2.35 Goodwood – The Qatar Handicap Stakes




Another tricky handicap over a mile and a half and yet another Goodwood race that Mark Johnston has an excellent record in – has won it three times in the last ten years – he has another four contenders here in the shape of Jaameh, Regal Monarch, Beaverbrook and Soldier In Action. Of the four, Jaameh and Regal Monarch may well need the ground much softer than they’re likely to get here, so it could be bet to focus on the other two despite these two’s low weights. Soldier in Action was a good winner last time out off a mark of 90, beating Snoano by a length and a quarter over this trip on good ground, so we know he stays and enjoys the ground. His prominent style of racing should stand him in good stead here as long as a berth of stall 14 doesn’t inconvenience him and he certainly has claims with Adam Kirby in the saddle.


Beaverbrook is a whole different kettle of fish. He’s been campaigned very oddly recently, running over a mile at Haydock in May and then taking part in the two-mile Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – both had the same result: being beaten ten and a half lengths down the field. While neither run would encourage you to back him, the fact that he’s now trying this intermediate trip for the first time, back on better ground is intriguing. Don’t forget, this was a horse that was just four lengths behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill three runs ago in a Listed race over a mile and a quarter. On pedigree, this son of Cape Cross and a Kingmambo mare could well find this trip right up his street and if he does, a mark of 93 could be lenient given how useful a two-year-old he was (4th in the Coventry Stakes) so he has to be given very close attention with the superb James McDonald in the saddle.


Another trainer who has won three of the last ten renewals of this is Sir Michael Stoute and he’s double-handed here with two sons of Sea The Stars, running off the same mark of 91, one that could underestimate both. SHRAAOH is a highly-regarded Al Shaqab-owned colt who absolutely hacked up in a maiden over a mile and a quarter at Newcastle before disappointing over this trip on soft ground at Royal Ascot. That effort, even considering he had a nightmare trip and was hampered multiple times, looked too bad to be true that day and it could have been that he needs the ground fast, something he’ll get here. He was a never-nearer third in what seems to be one of the best three-year-old handicaps of the year so far at Nottingham back in May, closing on Poet’s Word and Muntahaa and beating Indulged and Makzeem home, all very useful types. I have no doubt he’s got plenty more to come and the good ground will help him to put in a much better effort here under Frankie Dettori.


Stablemate Shabbah has been in excellent form, winning three races and finishing second in his four runs this season, going up 27lbs in the handicap as a result. He couldn’t quite get the better of Manjaam last time at Ascot and it could be that his improvement is starting to level out. He’ll most likely go well again here, but whether he’s as well handicapped as some others in the race is questionable. He beat Dal Harraild by a neck that day and William Haggas’ runner was very unlucky not to have won – he’s a progressive handicapper who loves this trip on fast ground and a subsequent 3lb rise shouldn’t stop him from performing well. He’s well drawn in 2, but if he’s held up as usual, he may just find it too tough a task to make up ground off his big weight.


Speaking of big weights, Move Up is Godolphin’s hope in the race and, rated 100, he has to carry the welter burden of 9-7. However, his victory over the useful Gershwin over a mile and a quarter at Ascot last time out was a very good effort and this step up to a mile and a half could well draw plenty more improvement out of him. Top weights have won this race before, but giving so much weight to a lot of progressive horses is a serious ask even for a horse rated as highly as 100 and while I think he’ll run well, there could be a couple better weighted to strike.


The other horse that needs a mention is Ralph Beckett’s Gold Faith, who won very easily at Newmarket last time out on his first attempt at this trip on quick ground and the resulting 6lb rise may not be enough to stop the Dark Angel gelding performing well, even up in class.




MY Advice




SHRAAOH 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)







3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)






Really and truly, it’s difficult to see this becoming more than just a procession and MINDING shouldn’t have any problem at all in extending her tally of Group 1 wins to six. She would have been a hot favourite without the fact that the field has cut up markedly and the only real opposition could come in the shape of John Gosden’s Swiss Range in a bid to extend her handler’s record in this race to four wins in five years having landed three in a row from 2012-14. She was well beaten in the French Oaks and although that can often turn out to be a muddling race, the form of her Listed Pretty Polly win prior to that falls well short of that required to trouble he selection.


French raider Jemayel probably boasts the strongest form in the book of the challenging quartet having scored at Group 1 level in the Prix Saint-Alary at Deuville in May. She finished narrowly behind Swiss Range last time out having never had the run of the race but would likely need to improve a great deal here to figure.


Beautiful Romance looks to have a near impossible job on her hands giving 10lbs to the red-hot favourite for all that she has proven herself at Group 1 level before when a good third in the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes behind Simple Verse.


Queen’s Trust completes the field for red-hot jockey James McDonald but the way in which she was going on at the finish in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot suggested she needed further than the 1m4f on offer there so the step back to 1m2f doesn’t look to be particularly in her favour.




MY Advice




SWISS RANGE (W/O Minding) – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred)







3.45 Goodwood – Qatar Stewards´ Cup




The 6yo Hawkeyethenoo scooped the honours back in 2012, becoming only the second six-year-old winner in the last decade. The group with the most success are the 4yo or 5yos who have won seven of the past ten renewals. In fact it is the 4yos that have the stronger record outpointing the 5yos by 5-2. I won’t go to the trouble of listing them all as I am sure you can work that out for yourself but it has to be a concern for the likes of Kimberella, Blaine and Ninjago.


As with the Betfred Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 104 have won all of the last 10 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. The lowest rated horse in this year’s field is 97 but there are three horses who miss out at the head of the field, Baccarat, Ridge Ranger (both 109) and G Force (108).


Closely related to official ratings is the weight each horse is asked to carry and as six of the last ten winners carried between 8st 11lb and 9st 7lb, this looks to be the desired bracket. The top three as they appear on the racecard also fall short on this score, so they look to be up against it.


Recent form also plays an important role in finding the winner as a horse that achieved a top four finish on their most recent start has taken six of the last ten renewals. This suggests that horses have to be at their optimum to run well here and it is not a race in which you should be hoping for horses to have a miraculous return to form. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind.


Also worth factoring into your calculations is the draw. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as 6 of the last 10 winners came from a pretty central draw (stalls 10-20). Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground?


The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guinea Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. This race is notorious for the runners flip-flopping in the betting in the lead up to the race but as it stands at the time of writing Dancing Star and Orion’s Bow are vying for favouritism at around 6/1. Whilst Toofi, Kimberella and Growl are also proving popular in the market.




Shortlist


ORION’S BOW – 6/6


Growl – 5/6


Toofi – 4/6


Dancing Star – 4/6



Conclusion




David Nicholls has won this race a number of times over the years and he looks to have the standout performer in this year’s field as he saddles ORION’S BOW. The five-year-old won off a mark of 69 in May but has soared up the handicap since then, winning four times since, most recently at Hamilton a couple of weeks ago. That was arguably his most impressive success to date and running here under a 6lb penalty it is hard to dismiss his claims given his progressive profile.


Growl is another who makes the shortlist having missed only one of our trends and that is due to his draw in stall 26. Other than that, the four-year-old looks to have a strong chance, having won two of his last three starts on the racecourse. He was a close fourth in the Bunbury Cup over seven furlongs last time and it is always worth noting when Richard Fahey books Ryan Moore in these big races.
Last year’s runner-up Toofi also looks to have plenty going in his favour having also finished fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup last September. He wasn’t beaten far in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last time and if he can overcome his draw in stall 23, he should be in the shake-up.


The final member of the shortlist is Dancing Star who was the last one to make it into the field of 28 runners. She is a three-year-old and won the same race at Newmarket last time that Magical Memory did before winning this race last year. Her trainer is no stranger to winning big prizes here at Goodwood and under a 6lb penalty, she looks to be one of the leading contenders.




MY Advice




ORION’S BOW – 1.5pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power)







4.20 Goodwood – Qatar Ebf Stallions Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings)




We have an interesting maiden to follow the Stewards’ Cup and one who is likely to be popular in the market is Lockheed who caught the eye of many when finishing second to Seven Heavens at Ascot earlier this month. He was ridden patiently by Pat Cosgrave but really got into top gear in the closing stages and gave the favourite a bit of a fright on that occasion. He cost 450,000 guineas as a yearling and with entries in the National Stakes and Champagne Stakes, clearly plenty is thought of him. However, he is likely to be short and it looks another strong contest so it might be worth looking elsewhere for a selection.


Richard Fahey’s Abiento is unlikely to be too far away having built on a promising debut at Carlisle when second to the well-regarded South Seas at Haydock last time. That was definitely a step forward and although he is drawn wide here, his experience should stand him in good stead.


Another runner with a couple of runs under his belt is Manolito De Madrid who finished second to Tap Tap Boom when last seen at the end of last month. That colt acquitted himself well in handicap company here earlier in the week and although he needs to find further improvement to get off the mark here, the yard’s 2yos tend to improve with racing.


The same can be said for runners from the Michael Bell stable so it must have been pleasing for them to see Ray’s The Money run so well at Ascot on his debut. He attracted support in the market beforehand and probably just had too much to do in the end, having been green early on. Jamie Spencer takes over from William Carson and another big run is likely to be expected.


However, the one I like the look of is BLACK TRILBY who may have only finished seventh on his first start at Leicester, but he raced keenly early on and he paid for that exuberance inside the final furlong. He still wasn’t beaten that far and the winner in particular is highly thought of by connections. The Clive Cox team are in good form at present and they notched another big 2yo winner in France last weekend. He has an entry in the Champagne Stakes later in the season and he could offer a bit of each-way value against those at the head of the market.


Of the newcomers, Richard Hannon’s Ghayyar is perhaps the most interesting, running in the Al Shaqab colours. The Power colt cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling and is a half-brother to a Listed winner in Mahaatheer. The yard have won this race three times in the last ten years and will be hoping for a strong performance by their debutant.


Hugo Palmer’s Colibri is also worth a mention being by Champion Australia sire Redoute’s Choice and he too holds an entry in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September. The yard’s 2yos tend to improve for their first run but they aren’t averse to having first time out winners so it will be interesting to see how he fares.






MY Advice




BLACK TRILBY – 0.75pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)







4.55 Goodwood – The Qatar Stakes (Handicap)




This seven furlong handicap for three-year-olds looks to have plenty of classy individuals entered, but as we’ve seen in the past and throughout this week, the draw is important, especially over this distance.
Hornsby has some decent form in the book, including a good third to Von Blucher in a strong mile handicap at Newmarket, but he’s drawn in the car park in 15 and would probably prefer a surface with a little bit of cut in it, especially back at seven furlongs. So while I think he’s a decent horse, this might not be the right race to back him in.


Also suffering from a bad draw is Richard Hannon’s George William, who’s been very progressive this season, winning twice and being placed twice, but he’s been raised 4lbs for his last second to Rostova and in combination with the high draw and how he’ll have to expend a fair amount of energy to get to his favoured prominent position, he might be another to swerve on this occasion.


The three that it might pay to concentrate on are drawn 2, 3 and 4, starting with Godolphin’s second runner, VENTUROUS, who will break from 4. He’s exclusively raced over six furlongs after his racecourse debut over seven and judging by the way he’s been caught for pace over the shorter trip on a few occasion over his past five runs, this step up to seven furlongs could be the ideal next step in this Raven’s Pass colt’s career. Trainer Charlie Appleby has always thought he’s not short of speed, but this step up to seven furlongs on a tight track, coupled with a 2lb drop in his mark to 95 and the assistance of the in-form James McDonald, could result in a decent performance and I think he’s got a big chance.


Estidraak represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard and must bounce back from a disappointing showing at Newmarket in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. He was way too keen on the lead that day and paid for it in the final couple of furlongs, even though Paul Hanagan wasn’t hard on him at all once his chance had gone. It was a disappointing effort after the style of his maiden win at Kempton, where he hacked up by seven lengths, looking a very classy performer. That run at Newmarket was also his first run on turf and he still has to prove he likes the surface, along with having to prove he’s up to this level so soon in his career. I have no doubt we’ll see a better effort from the colt from stall 2 this time around, but whether he’s up to taking a competitive handicap like this is another question entirely.


The last of the three well-drawn horses is Mark Johnston’s Hawatif, who more than confirmed her wellbeing last time out at Doncaster where she beat Company Asset and Quick N Quirky in a fillies’ handicap. She races off a mark only 4lb higher now and if sticking with the prominent tactics that have seen her go so well over the past month, she could have another decent effort in her locker. The concern is that the race she won just a week or so ago wasn’t very strong and she’ll certainly have to step up once again to be involved here.


Mamillius broke his duck on the third attempt for trainer George Baker and looked a useful colt when doing so at Salisbury. He won easily that day, and could be anything on his handicap debut. However, the second horse in that race, Marbooh, has struggled in two handicaps off a mark of 80 so this mark of 88 might be high enough for now, even though he should enjoy both trip and ground here.






MY Advice:




VENTUROUS – 1pt win @ 6/1 (SkyBet)







6.00 Goodwood – Qatar Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)




These types of races can prove a bit of a minefield and it often pays to side with an apprentice you know can do the job. Eddie Greatrex is one such man having landed the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day last year and his mount MR QUICKSILVER must have a big shout. The gallant grey had been most consistent last campaign without quite getting his head in front until finally shedding his maiden tag at Lingfield in December at the tenth time of asking. The son of Dansili has since left Andrew Balding and can be forgiven his debut run after nearly six months off on ground softer than ideal and over a trip shorter than he is used to. He bounced back to his usual self over a mile at Ascot last time when second in a competitive-looking heat and given he was doing all his best work at the finish having hit a flat spot, the extra furlong here should play right into his hands. A 4lb rise looks fair on that evidence and a big run is expected.


His stablemate Bold Prediction has a somewhat contrasting profile having been on the go almost constantly since August last year. He hit a purple patch on the all-weather around the turn of the year and carried on his good work transferred to turf last time out when second to the re-opposing Heisman at Yarmouth. The fact that he hasn’t won on turf for over three years is rather disconcerting but Walker has employed the services of crack apprentice Adam McNamara and he is a player.


His Yarmouth vanquisher Heisman showed signs that he was coming back to the boil last time out on only his second start for George Baker and could well come on a great deal for that win. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to keep him focussed when winning at the Norfolk track and re-applied here he has to be considered off only a 2lb higher mark.


Van Huysen is one of only two last time out winners in the field having scored at Sandown on Wednesday. If he turns out again quickly, he gets in here with a 6lb penalty which may overestimate him given the nature of his one and a half length win. He also has a bit to find with the selection on their Ascot running.


Completing the last time out winning trio is Eurystheus who could well be a big player on the evidence of his Chester success earlier this month. He has only been hit with a 4lb rise for that which looks particularly lenient given the ready nature of the win but all of his best recent form has come with pronounced ease in the ground and although the rain may have dampened things slightly, it’s difficult to see conditions worsening a great deal which may just scupper his chance.




MY Advice




MR QUICKSILVER – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet)