saturday 6/8/2016

[ganjaman2]

13:15 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap)


8 previous runnings


8/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/8 – Failed to win their last race
8/8 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/8 – Carried 9-3 or more weight
7/8 – Had 4 or more runs that season
7/8 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
6/8 – Won at least 3 times in their career
6/8 – Won at least 3 times in their career
5/8 – Favourites placed
5/8 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/8 – Had won over 5f previously
3/8 – Winning distance – 1 or more lengths
3/8 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/8 – Trained by Robert Cowell (including last 2 runnings)
2/8 – Won by the Andrew Balding yard
2 of the last 8 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/2




VERDICT:


DUTCH MASTERPIECE was a short-head runner-up in this race 12 months ago and off a pound lower mark then he’s sure to have a good chance. Yes, he’s been a bit disappointing of late but has been running in better races and does seem to save his best for Ascot – his last two runs here read first and second. Looking at the trends then horses from stall 11 have a good decent record so Ninjago will be looking to uphold that, while with ALL of the last 8 winners being aged 4 or 5 then Union Rose and Burnt Sugar – the only two that fit that age trend – could be big players too.





1.45 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap)




12/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/12 – Rated between 86-94
10/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/12 – Carried 8-13 or more
10/12 – Had won between 2-5 times before (flat)
10/12 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Had raced at the track before
9/12 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Goodwood (4) last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/12 – Trained by Ian Williams
1/12 – Won last time out


No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
3 of the last 7 runners came from stall 9
horses from stall 9 placed in the top 3 in 6 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1


VERDICT:


The Mick Appleby team took this 12 months ago – they run Two Jabs this year. This consistent sort has run well all season but as a result continues to creep up the handicap and off this mark and in this grade would need a career-best. The Ian Williams yard also have a good record in the race – taking it in 2011 and 2012 – so their old-timer, Teak, is another to consider. horses from stall 9 have fared well – winning 3 of the last 9 so Percy Veer will be popular on that score. 4 and 5 year-olds, however, have the best records again here and with that in mind SEA OF HEAVEN ticks a lot of boxes. This Sir Mark Prescott-trained 4 year-old won well here over CD a few weeks ago so we know he likes the track and a 4lb rise for that doesn’t look too harsh. The 5 year-old, Notarised, can give him most to think about after a decent third at Goodwood last week, despite having top-weight to carry.





2.20 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap)


12/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Officially rated between 87-94
10/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Won between 1-4 times previously
10/12 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
10/12 – Won over 1m3f (or further) previously
8/12 – Aged 4 years-old
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
6/12 – Had run at Ascot previously
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
5/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/12 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
2/12 – Favourites that won


No winners from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 5
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1


VERDICT:


A competitive middle-distance handicap next up but with 8 of the last 12 winners being aged 4 then it could pay to focus on this age group. Baadi, Silver Quay, Duretto, Great Glen and DARSHINI fit the bill on that front with the last-named looking the most interesting. From the Sir Michael Stoute team his horse looks as if he’s been crying out for the step-up to 1m4f after getting a bit out-paced over 1m2f this season. His only try over the trip came last season and was only beaten 7 lengths to the eventual St Leger winner, Simple Verse. The yard has been patient with him and this also represents a drop in class from last time. Of the rest, Great Glen catches the eye for the Ralph Beckett team after his easy win at Lingfield last time. This will be a lot harder upped in grade but is clearly a horse connections think is capable at this level and being lightly-raced there should be more to come. Finally, Ruwasi, will be popular after winning his last two in decent fashion and a 5lb rise for the last of those (won by 3 ½ lengths) doesn’t look too harsh.




2.55 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap)


12/12 – Won over at least a mile before
12/12 – Failed to win last time out
12/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/12 – Rated between 92-100
11/12 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
9/12 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
7/12 – Had run at Ascot before
4/12 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/12 – Winning favourites


3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 1
9 or the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1




VERDICT:


A great race in recent years for the Andrew Balding team so their Highland Colori will be trying to uphold their good form in the race. This consistent sort is still going strong at the age of 8 and heads here off the back of a good second at Newmarket last time. But yet another good race for the 4 and 5 year-old bracket horses, having won 11 of the last 12 runnings so BEACH BAR and EARLY MORNING are the only two that fall into that category. Beach Bar was last seen running down the field in the Lincoln at Doncaster but that before that was an excellent second over in Dubai in a decent handicap – on that form would have a big chance. Early Morning often likes to be up with the pace and can be forgive his last run as missed the break. Before that he was only beaten 3 1/3 lengths in the Royal Hunt Cup here and on that running would surely be a player. Of the rest, the consistent George Cinq should be in the mix and is a past course winner too, while Balmoral Castle should be more effective now dropped back in trip from 10f to a mile.





3.30 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap)




7 previous runnings
6/7 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
6/7 – Won over 1m2f or further previously
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/7 – Raced 3 or more times that season
5/7 – Officially rated between 84-90
6/7 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
4/7 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/7 – Favourites placed
2/7 – Favourites that won
2/7 – Trained by Mark Johnston


6 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8 (2 each)
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1


VERDICT:


With 6 of the last 7 winners coming from stalls 5, 7 or 8 then King Of Dreams (5), Space Mountain (7) and WHITE SHAHEEN (8) are a good place to start. If we also add in that all of the last seven winners races 3 or more times before, while 6 of the last 7 had won over 1m2f previously then the William Muir-trained White Shaheen catches the eye. This 3 year-old has been going great guns this season and only went down a short-head at Sandown last time. Yes, a 5lb higher mark makes life harder but the step back up to 1m4f is a big plus having won over this trip two runs back. Add in the yard are going great guns at the moment then everything points to a big run. Of the rest, King Of Dreams and Space Mountain, with their good draw trends behind them are the dangers.





4.05 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Bobis Race)




12/12 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
11/12 – Ran within the last 4-5 weeks
11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting market
10/12 – Won between 2-3 times previously
10/12 – Won over 6f previously
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/12 – Officially rated between 86-94
8/12 – Came from the top three in the betting market
8/12 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
8/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Had run at Ascot previously
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Won by the Roger Charlton yard
3/12 – Favourites


5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2


VERDICT:




50% of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc) so the ones that fit the bill here are Kadrizzi (5), Sunflower (6), Black Bess (7) & Papa Luigi (8). 11 of the last 12 raced in the last 4-5 weeks so that’s a negative for Sunflower, Saryshagann and Field of Vision. 9 of the last 12 were rated between 86 and 94 so that’s a plus for BLACK BESS, Suqoor, Papa Luigi, Flying Pursuit and Exceed The Limit, with preference for Black Bess. This Jim Boyle-trained 3 year-old has won her last two in decent fashion and could still be ahead of the handicapper. A 3lb rise makes life harder here, but held on well last time to suggest he could be keeping something back.