The Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of day 1 of York’s Ebor meeting, which begins on Wednesday 17th August. It’s a group 1 run over 1M 2½F for horses aged 3 or older and it can often be the first race several of the best middle distance 3yos that ran in Derby’s around Europe take on the older horses for the first time.





Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2005 - 2015):



Age


3yo: 4-3-19


4yo: 5-3-23


5yo: 0-5-18


6yo+: 1-0-7


4yos have won 5 of last 10 from 34.8% of total runners


The four male winners aged 3 since 2000 were Sea The Stars (Derby & 2000 Guineas winner), Authorized (Derby winner), Giant’s Causeway (runner-up in English & Irish 2000 Guineas) and Australia (Epsom & Irish Derby winner). All 4 were multiple group 1-winners. The other 3yo winner was mare, Arabian Queen, who placed in group 1 Nassau on previous start.


In 2011, Twice Over became the first ever horse aged older than 5 to win the race. He had finished runner-up in the previous year’s race and the 2011 renewal failed to include any 3yo runners.



Gender


Fillies/mares (1-1-3) have gained 1 win and 1 seconds from 3 runners in last 10 years.

Recent/Past Form


10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners contested a group 1 last time (exception won group 2 York Stakes)
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception 4th in Prix Jacques Le Marois)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out (exception was a mare who posted RPR of 110 last time)
9 of 10 winners had won a race this season (exception 2nd in group )
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had finished 2nd in the Eclipse & 4th in Derby, one was in 1M 2F group 1 last time & other was Frankel running over further than a mile for first time)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions placed in a group 1 last time)
4 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group race as a 2yo

Other Races


Dante Stakes winner (Wings Of Desire): 122 (1-2-3)
Eclipse winner (Hawkbill): 312342 (1-2-6)
King George VI winner (Highland Reel): 2 (0-1-1)
Coronation Cup winner (Postponed): 3 (0-1-1)
Sheema Classic winner (Postponed): 3 (0-1-1)
Prix Ganay winner (Dariyan): 27 (0-1-2)
Prince Of Wales Stakes winner (My Dream Boat): 33 (0-1-2)
Gordon Richards Stakes winner (My Dream Boat): 3 (0-0-1)
Tercentenary Stakes winner (Hawkbill): 74 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 2212
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 213
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 611
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Lockinge Stakes, finishing 515
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 55
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's QEII Stakes, finishing 11
3 of 3 male winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 111
2 of 3 male winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 13

Trainers


Aidan O’Brien (3-2-18) has been responsible for 3 of the last 6 winners.


Michael Stoute (1-1-6) trained the 1-2 in 2006.


Kevin Ryan (0-1-2) saddled The Grey Gatsby to finish 2nd in 2014 and John Gosden (0-1-2) trained Golden Horn to finish 2nd in 2015.


2 of the 4 French-trained runners since 2001 have been placed though there has been no French-trained winner since 1987.



Price


9 of 10 winners went off 8/1 or shorter
The only massive shock winner in this since 2005 was Arabian Queen, at 50/1, last year.
Favourites (5-2-10) have won 8 of last 15 at York but show a level stakes loss of 0.68 over past 10 renewals.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo Epsom Derby winner)
- Run at least twice this season
- Won or placed in group 1 last time, posting an RPR of 117+
- Won over 1M 2F+ (ideally this season)
- Has won a group 1 (or placed in a group 1 last time)
- Finished in first 2 in Eclipse, Queen Anne, Sussex and/or 2015 QEII Stakes
- Finished in first 5 in Prince of Wales and/or Lockinge Stakes
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- Priced 8/1 or shorter