The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday 18th August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first group 1 in which older horses can take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals.

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at York (2005-2015):

Age


3yo: 5-11-48
4yo: 5-3-24
5yo+: 0-0-5
4yos have won 5 of last 10 from 31% of the total runners.
3 of 5 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 4th, 2nd & 2nd).
4 of 5 winnings 3yos finished 1st or 2nd in the Irish Oaks last time, other had won the Irish 1000 Guineas earlier that season.

Recent Form


6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a group 1, other 2 were unplaced in the Eclipse & Pretty Polly)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time
9 of 10 winners (last 9) ran in a group 1 last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 111+ that season
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
7 of 10 winners had won a race that season (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1 that year)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further (exception 2nd in 1M 4F group 1 on only run over further than 1M)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions were 2nd in a group 1)
5 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 5 had yet to run at the track)

Other Races


Irish Oaks winner (Seventh Heaven): 112212 (3-3-6)
Lingfield Oaks Trial winner (Seventh Heaven): 3 (0-0-1)
Munster Oaks winner (Pretty Perfect): R57 (0-0-3)
Lancashire Oaks winner (Endless Time): 0346 (0-0-4)
Ribblesdale winner (Even Song): 77554 (0-0-5)
4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 1112
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 124
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in 1000 Guineas, finishing 10
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 31
3 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's race, finishing 422
2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 13
2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix Vermeille, 23
3 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 115
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 11

Trainers


British trained runners: 5-9-49
Irish trained runners: 4-2-21
French trained runners: 1-2-5
German/Italian trained runners: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (3-2-11) has saddled 3 winners, 1 second and 3 thirds from 11 runners.
John Gosden (2-2-5) has trained 2 winners and 2 runners-up from 5 runners.
Jim Bolger (1-0-3) trained Pleascach to win this in 2015 and he also won the rescheduled renewal at Newmarket in 2008, with Lush Lashes.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-0-3) trained the winner in 2012.
Michael Stoute (0-3-6) trained 4 of the 5 winners between 2000 & 2004 and has seen 3 of his last 6 runners make the places.
Luca Cumani (0-1-4) trained the runner-up in 2004 & 2005.

Price


Last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
9 of 10 winners since 2005 came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-4-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a £1 level stakes loss of £0.36.

Summary:


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or
- Aged 4 that finished in first 4 in this race in 2015
- Run at least twice in 2016
- Won last time out (ideally in a group 1)
- Posted an RPR of 107+ in a group 1 last time
- Posted an RPR of 112+ in 2016
- Won over 1M 2F+
- Previously won a group 1
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
- Won Nassau Stakes, Irish Oaks or Pretty Polly in 2016 or Musidora in 2015
- Finished in first 3 in Middleton Stakes, 2015 Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf and/or Prix Vermeille
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger or John Gosden
- From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 8/1)